Tag Archives: EP15

Hurricane Nolo Stalls South of Hawaii

Hurricane Nolo stalled south of Hawaii early on Saturday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Nolo was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 155.3°W which put the center about 145 miles (235 km) south of South Point, Hawaii.  Nolo was stationary.   The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hawaii County.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Hawaii County.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County including Maui, Lanai, Molokai, and Kahoolawe.

Hurricane Nolo was a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Nolo’s circulation.  They eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Nolo.  Storms near the center of Nolo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Nolo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Nolo’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Nolo is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.9.

Hurricane Nolo will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nolo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low that is northwest of Hawaii.  The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Nolo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Nolo could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.  Nolo could strengthen to a major hurricane during the weekend.

A high pressure system north of Hawaii is forecast to strengthen on Saturday.  When the high pressure system strengthens, it will start to steer Hurricane Nolo toward the west.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Nolo will remain south of Hawaii during the weekend.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Nolo will produce easterly winds in parts of the Big Island of Hawaii and on Maui.  Heavy rain could fall where those winds blow up the slopes of hills and mountains.  Heavy could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii, Maui, Lanai, Molokai, and Kahoolawe.

Nolo Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Nolo strengthened to a hurricane as it moved over the Central North Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Nolo was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 155.9°W which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) south of South Point, Hawaii.  Nolo was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hawaii County.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Hawaii County.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County including Maui, Lanai, Molokai, and Kahoolawe.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Hurricane Nolo.  A large circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Nolo’s circulation.  They eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western side of Hurricane Nolo.  Bands in the eastern side of Nolo’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nolo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Nolo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Nolo’s circulation.

Hurricane Nolo will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nolo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is northwest of Hawaii.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nolo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Nolo will intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.  Nolo could strengthen to a major hurricane during the weekend.

The upper level trough that is northwest of Hawaii will pull Hurricane Nolo slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Nolo will move closer to the Big Island of Hawaii.  A high pressure system north of Hawaii is forecast to strengthen on Saturday.  If the high pressure system strengthens, it will steer Nolo toward the west during the weekend.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Nolo could drop heavy rain on parts of the Big Island of Hawaii and on Maui.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii, Maui, Lanai, Molokai, and Kahoolawe.

Tropical Storm Nolo Forms South of Hawaii

Tropical Storm Nolo formed over the Central North Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii on Wednesday afternoon.  A Hurricane Watch was issued for the Big Island of Hawaii.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 155.3°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) south of South Point, Hawaii.  Nolo was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hawaii County.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Fifteen-E strengthened on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Nolo.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Nolo was large.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands that curled round the northern and western sides of the center of Nolo’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and eastern side of Tropical Storm Nolo consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nolo started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to begin to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Nolo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern half of Nolo’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Nolo were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nolo will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nolo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is northwest of Hawaii.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nolo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear probably will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Nolo is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough that is northwest of Hawaii will pull Tropical Storm Nolo slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Nolo will move closer to the Big Island of Hawaii.

 

Norbert Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Norbert weakened to a tropical depression as it moved over the Central North Pacific Ocean on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 140.5°W which put the center about 950 miles (1525 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Norbert was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Norbert weakened to a tropical depression on Monday evening.  Drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Depression Norbert to weaken on Monday.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands on the periphery of Norbert’s circulation.  Many of the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Norbert consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Since there were few thunderstorms near the center of Norbert, there was very little upper level divergence.  Convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to increase on Monday.

Tropical Depression Norbert will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  An upper level low that is northeast of Hawaii will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Norbert’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Norbert will also continue to move through a mass of drier air that is east of Hawaii.  Tropical Depression Norbert is likely to continue to weaken on Tuesday because of the moderate vertical wind shear and the drier air.

Tropical Depression Norbert will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Norbert toward the west during the next 24 hours,  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Norbert will still be far to the east of Hawaii on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fifteen-E continued to move farther away from Baja California.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 121.6°W which put the center about 880 miles (1415 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Norbert Still Moving West

Tropical Storm Norbert was still moving west toward the Central North Pacific Ocean on Sunday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 135.3°W which put the center about 1290 miles (2075 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Norbert was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Norbert did not change much on Sunday.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Norbert continued to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Norbert’s circulation.  Bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Norbert consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Norbert still generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained steady on Sunday.

The asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Norbert also affected the distribution of wind speeds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern half of Norbert’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Norbert.

Tropical Storm Norbert will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  An upper level low that is northeast of Hawaii will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Norbert’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Norbert will also continue to move through the mass of drier air that is east of Hawaii.  Tropical Storm Norbert is unlikely to intensify on Monday because of the moderate vertical wind shear and the drier air.

Tropical Storm Norbert will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Norbert toward the west during the next 24 hours,  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Norbert will still be far to the east of Hawaii on Monday.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fifteen-E formed southwest of Baja California.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 118.3°W which put the center about 680 miles (1095 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Priscilla Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Priscilla weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 112.7°W which put the center about 195 miles (310 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Priscilla was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Former Hurricane Priscilla rapidly weakened to a tropical storm south of Baja California on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms around the center of Priscilla’s circulation and in the northern half of the circulation weakened.  Bands in those parts of Tropical Storm Priscilla consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern and western periphery of Priscilla’s circulation.  Weakening of the thunderstorms near the core of Tropical Storm Priscilla greatly reduced the upper level divergence.  With much less upper level divergence the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Priscilla was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Priscilla’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Priscilla will move through an environment that will become even more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  An upper level trough near the west coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Priscilla’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The effects of cooler water and increasing vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Priscilla to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Priscilla will move west of Cabo San Lazaro on Thursday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Octave continued to gradually weaken far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 116.2.°W which put the center about 660 miles (1065 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the east at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Hurricane Priscilla Starts to Weaken

Hurricane Priscilla started to weaken on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 111.5°W which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Priscilla was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Hurricane Priscilla started to weaken on Tuesday evening after Priscilla had strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale earlier in the day.  Hurricane Priscilla appeared to have mixed cooler water to the surface of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  A large eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) was still present at the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  However, the ring of thunderstorms surrounding the eye was broken in several places.  Also, many of the thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Priscilla had weakened.  The bands in the eastern part of Priscilla’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western half of Hurricane Priscilla.

The circulation around Hurricane Priscilla was still large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Hurricane Priscilla.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Priscilla was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.9.

Hurricane Priscilla will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  An upper level trough near the west coast of the U.S. will start to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Priscilla’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to begin to increase.  In addition, the cooler water mixed to the surface of the ocean by Priscilla’s winds will limit the energy transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere.  The effects of cooler water and increasing vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Priscilla to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Priscilla will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Baja California on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Octave weakened far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 118.0.°W which put the center about 750 miles (1205 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Hurricane Priscilla Moves South of Baja California

Hurricane Priscilla moved south of Baja California on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 108.5°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Priscilla was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Hurricane Priscilla was showing evidence of intensification on Monday evening.  New tall thunderstorms were forming just to the south of the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  Microwave satellite imagery was indicating that an eye might be forming at the center of Hurricane Priscilla.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Storms near the center of Priscilla generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Priscilla was very large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the eastern side of Priscilla’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the western side of Priscilla.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Priscilla.

Hurricane Priscilla will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Priscilla will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla could strengthen to a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Priscilla will move closer to the southern part of Baja California on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Hurricane Octave weakened back to a tropical storm on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 120.4°W which put the center about 840 miles (1355 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Priscilla and Octave Intensify to Hurricanes

Former Tropical Storms Priscilla and Octave both intensified to hurricanes over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 107.1°W which put the center about 285 miles (460 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Priscilla was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Priscilla intensified to a hurricane southwest of Mexico on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Priscilla.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Priscilla generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern part of Hurricane Priscilla.  Hurricane force winds extended out 40 miles in the southeastern quadrant of Priscilla’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Priscilla.

Hurricane Priscilla will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Priscilla will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla could strengthen to a major hurricane by Tuesday.

Hurricane Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Priscilla will move south of Baja California on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Octave also intensified to a hurricane on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Octave was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 123.3°W which put the center about 995 miles (1600 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Storm Priscilla Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Priscilla formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 106.6°W which put the center about 285 miles (460 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Priscilla was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico strengthened on Saturday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Priscilla.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Priscilla was large.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Priscilla’s circulation on Saturday afternoon.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla.  Storms near the center of Priscilla began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Priscilla.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the northern part of Priscilla’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Priscilla were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Priscilla will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Priscilla will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla could strengthen to a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical Storm Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Priscilla will move a little closer toward the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Octave continued to meander far to the south-southwest of Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 123.9°W which put the center about 1065 miles (1720 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.