Tropical Depression Four Forms South of Cuba

Tropical Depression Four formed south of Cuba on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Four was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 79.7°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) south of Caibarien, Cuba and about 260 miles (415 km) south-southeast of Key West, Florida.  Tropical Depression Four was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Card Sound Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River, Florida.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed over the Caribbean Sea south of Cuba in a tropical wave previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Four.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Depression Four on Friday night.  Thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Four.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Four will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Depression Four will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Four is likely to intensify slowly as long as the center of the depression is near Cuba. The tropical depression is likely to intensify more rapidly when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression Four will moving around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Depression Four toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Four will move across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.  The tropical depression is likely to move toward the north during the weekend when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Depression Four is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Florida during the weekend.  Heavy rain could cause widespread flooding.  Tropical Depression Four could also cause a storm surge along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwannee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches Issued for Florida

The potential threat posed by a tropical wave over eastern Cuba prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for parts of Florida.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the tropical wave as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four in order to issue the watches and warnings.  The tropical wave was previous designated as Invest 97L.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 76.6°W which put the center about 90 miles (145 km) east-southeast of Camaguey, Cuba and about 420 miles (675 km) southeast of Key West, Florida.  The tropical wave was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Card Sound Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Aripeka,, Florida. 

The tropical wave currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move into an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical wave.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The tropical wave is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone as long as the center of the wave is over Cuba.  A tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form on Saturday when Potential Tropical Cyclone Four moves north of Cuba.  The system could strengthen to a tropical storm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The tropical wave is moving around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Four toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the tropical wave will move toward the Florida Keys.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is likely to move toward the north during the weekend when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Florida during the weekend.  Heavy rain could cause widespread flooding.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Four could also cause a storm surge along the west coast of Florida.

Carlotta Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Carlotta intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Friday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 115.2°W which put the center about 455 miles (730 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Carlotta was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Carlotta strengthened to a hurricane on Friday morning.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Carlotta’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Carlotta.  Storms near the center of Carlotta’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Carlotta was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Carlotta’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Carlotta.

Hurricane Carlotta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Carlotta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Carlotta will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Carlotta will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest U.S. and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Carlotta toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Carlotta will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Wave Likely to Prompt Watches and Warnings for Florida

A tropical wave over eastern Cuba is likely to prompt the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for Florida on Friday.  The tropical wave is currently designated as Invest 97L.  At 2:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Invest 97L was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 74.1°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) east of Guantanamo, Cuba.  The tropical wave was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

The axis of a tropical wave is over eastern Cuba early on Friday morning.  The tropical wave is currently designated as Invest 97L.  There is not a well defined low level circulation in the tropical wave.  There is a broad counterclockwise rotation along the axis of the tropical wave.  Much of the rotation is over eastern Cuba.  Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are embedded in the broad counterclockwise rotation.

The tropical wave currently designated as Invest 97L will move into an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Invest 97L will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical wave.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The tropical wave is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone as long as the center of the wave is over Cuba.  A tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form on Saturday when Invest 97L moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The tropical wave is moving around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Invest 97L toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the tropical wave will move toward the Florida Keys.  Invest 97L is likely to move toward the north during the weekend when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.

The tropical wave is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Florida during the weekend.  Heavy rain could cause widespread flooding.

Tropical Storm Carlotta Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Carlotta formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 108.0°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Carlotta was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Carlotta.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Carlotta exhibited much more organization on Wednesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Carlotta’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Carlotta began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Carlotta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Carlotta will intensify during the next 36 hours.  Carlotta could strengthen to a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest U.S. and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Carlotta toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Carlotta will remain far south of Baja California.

Bud Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Bud weakened to a tropical depression on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Bud was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 120.5°W which put the center about 730 miles (1175 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Bud was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Bud weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Friday.  Bud moved over cooler water where the air was also cooler and more stable.  The cooler, more stable environment caused all of the thunderstorms in Bud’s circulation to dissipate.  The bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Bud consisted entirely of showers and lower clouds.  When the thunderstorms dissipated, Bud stopped producing upper level divergence.  When the upper level divergence stopped, the surface pressure increased.

Tropical Depression Bud will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Bud will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  Tropical Depression Bud will remain in a cooler, more stable environment.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bud’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.   The cool, stable environment and the vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Depression Bud to continue to weaken.

Tropical Depression Bud will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bud toward the west during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Bud will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Bud Strengthens

Tropical Storm Bud strengthened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 115.7°W which put the center about 490 miles (790 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Bud was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Bud strengthened on Thursday.  A weather station at Isla Clarion reported a sustained wind speed of 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h).  Even though Tropical Storm Bud strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Bud’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Bud consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms southwest of the center of Bud generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Bud was small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Bud’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Bud will move through an environment that will be marginal for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bud will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bud’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  If the wind shear gets any stronger, Tropical Storm Bud will start to weaken.  Bud will move over cooler water later on Friday.

Tropical Storm Bud will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bud toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bud will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Gaemi Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern China

Tropical Storm Gaemi brought wind and rain to parts of eastern China on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Gaemi was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 119.1°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) west of Fuzhou, China.  Gaemi was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Former Typhoon Gaemi weakened to a tropical storm on Thursday before it made landfall on the east coast of China.  The center of Gaemi’s circulation made landfall southeast of Fuzhou near Fuqing.  Showers and thunderstorms in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Storm Gaemi were dropping heavy rain.  The bands in the northern and western parts of Gaemi’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Gaemi was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Gaemi’s circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in bands that were still over water in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Storm Gaemi.

Tropical Storm Gaemi will move toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Gaemi will weaken as it moves farther inland over eastern China.  Tropical Storm Gaemi will drop heavy rain over parts of Fujian, Jiangxi and Zhejiang.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bud Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Bud formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 112.2°W which put the center about 425 miles (690 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Bud was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Bud.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Bud’s circulation on Wednesday afternoon.  Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Thunderstorms also formed in bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Storm Bud.  Bands in the eastern and northern parts of Bud’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southern half of Tropical Storm Bud.  The winds in the northern half of Bud’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Bud will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bud will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bud’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear may not be enough to prevent some strengthening.  Tropical Storm Bud could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bud will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bud toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bud will move farther away from Baja California.

 

Typhoon Gaemi Batters Taiwan

Typhoon Gaemi battered Taiwan on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Gaemi was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 121.4°E which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) south of Taipei, Taiwan.  Gaemi was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 928 mb.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall of Typhoon Gaemi as it approached the east coast of Taiwan.  Concentric eyewalls formed in the core of Gaemi’s circulation.  The diameter of the inner eye was 7 miles (11 km).  The inner eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Gaemi.

The inner eye of Typhoon Gaemi began to make a counterclockwise loop inside the outer eyewall as Gaemi neared the east coast of Taiwan.  Mountains in Taiwan also deflected winds blowing around the western side of Typhoon Gaemi.  The deflection of the winds by the mountains also contributed to the counterclockwise loop of the inner eye.  The inner eye made landfall near Yilan City after it completed the counterclockwise loop.

The circulation around Typhoon Gaemi was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Gaemi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 315 miles (510 km) from the center of Typhoon Gaemi.

Typhoon Gaemi was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 35.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 58.8.  Typhoon Gaemi was as strong as Hurricane Katrina was when Katrina made landfall on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.  Gaemi was larger than Katrina was when Katrina made landfall.

Typhoon Gamei was producing strong winds in Taiwan.  Gaemi was also dropping very heavy rain over parts of Taiwan.  Prolonged heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in many locations.  Typhoon Gaemi was also causing a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast of northern Taiwan where the wind was blowing water toward the coast.

Typhoon Gaemi will move toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Gaemi will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rain in Taiwan for another 12 to 24 hours.  The center of Typhoon Gaemi will move over the Taiwan Strait in a few hours.  Gaemi will make another landfall on the east coast of China in about 18 hours.