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Hurricane Beryl Nears the Windward Islands

Hurricane Beryl neared the Windward Islands on Monday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 60.5°W which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) east of Grenada.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl quickly completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle early on Monday.  Beryl began to intensify again after completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Hurricane Beryl.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.

Completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.9.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eastern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless another Eyewall Replacement Cycle occurs.  There is a chance that Hurricane Beryl could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will hit Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands in a few hours.

The core of Hurricane Beryl will pass very close to Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands in a few hours.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional severe damage.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also bring strong winds and heavy rain in St. Lucia, Tobago, and Martinique.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Barbados and Trinidad.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Chris brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Chris was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 97.7°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) south-southwest of Tuxpan, Mexico.  Chris was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Hurricane Beryl Approaches Windward Islands

Hurricane Beryl was approaching the Windward Islands on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 58.1°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of Barbados.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Dominica.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Hurricane Beryl.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the existing eye and eyewall.  Concentric eyewalls were likely forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass was in equilibrium with the inflow of mass near the surface and the surface pressure was nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl also remained nearly steady on Sunday evening.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.6.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Although Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification, Beryl is likely to weaken during the next few hours.  Concentric eyewalls will likely lead to an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.  During an Eyewall Replacement Cycle the inner eyewall weakens and dissipates.  Since the maximum wind speeds occur in the inner eyewall, Hurricane Beryl will weaken, at least temporarily, when that happens.  Beryl could strengthen again after the Eyewall Replacement Cycle is over.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will pass between Barbados and Tobago early on Monday.  Hurricane Beryl will begin to affect St. Lucia, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands later on Monday morning.

The core of Hurricane Beryl could pass very close to St. Lucia, Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional severe damage.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also produce strong winds and heavy rain in Barbados, Tobago, and Martinique.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Trinidad and Dominica.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Chris formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 96.2°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico.  Chris was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz, Mexico.

 

Hurricane Beryl Strengthens to Cat. 4

Hurricane Beryl strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday morning.  At 11:30 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 54.9°W which put the center about 350 miles (565 km) east-southeast of Barbados.   Beryl was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Martinique.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Dominica and Trinidad.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Beryl had rapidly intensified on Sunday morning to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (30 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The reconnaissance aircraft also found that the size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl increased when Beryl rapidly intensified.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Beryl could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.  There is a chance Hurricane Beryl could strengthen to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will move quickly toward the Windward Islands.  Beryl will approach Barbados and Tobago by Sunday night.  Hurricane Beryl will affect St. Lucia, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, and Martinique on Monday.

The core of Hurricane Beryl could pass very close to Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional severe damage.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also produce strong winds and heavy rain in Barbados, Tobago, St. Lucia and Martinique.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Trinidad and Dominica.

 

 

Beryl Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Beryl rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Windward Islands on Sunday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 10.6°N and longitude 53.9°W which put the center about 420 miles (675 km) east-southeast of Barbados.  Beryl was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Martinique.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Dominica.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Beryl had rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Sunday morning.  Beryl was a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Beryl was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.4.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.0.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. Beryl could continue to intensify rapidly.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will move quickly toward the Windward Islands.  Beryl will approach Barbados and Tobago by Sunday night.  Hurricane Beryl will affect St. Lucia, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, and Martinique on Monday.

Hurricane Beryl will be a major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands.  Beryl will cause major damage on some of the Windward Islands.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

 

Beryl Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Beryl rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 10.1°N and longitude 49.3°W which put the center about 720 miles (1160 km) east-southeast of Barbados.  Beryl was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Barbados.

Hurricane Watches were in effect for St. Lucia, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and Tobago.

Former Tropical Storm Beryl rapidly intensified to a hurricane on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Beryl’s circulation.  A small circular eye was at the center of Hurricane Beryl on microwave satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away form the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Beryl was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles in the northeastern quadrant of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. Beryl could continue to intensify rapidly.  Beryl could intensify to a major hurricane before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will move quickly toward the Lesser Antilles.  Beryl could approach Barbados by Sunday night.

Hurricane Beryl could be a major hurricane by the time it reaches the Windward Islands.  Beryl could cause major damage on some of the Windward Islands.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters).

 

Tropical Storm Beryl Prompts Hurricane Watch for Barbados

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Beryl prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for Barbados on Saturday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 9.8°N and longitude 46.8°W which put the center about 890 miles (1435 km) east-southeast of Barbados.  Beryl was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Barbados.

Tropical Storm Beryl strengthened rapidly during Friday night as it moved closer to the Lesser Antilles.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around around the center of Tropical Storm Beryl.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass cause the surface pressure to decrease more rapidly.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of of Tropical Storm Beryl.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Beryl will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane.  Tropical Storm Beryl could continue to intensify rapidly.  Beryl could intensify to a major hurricane before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. T he high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will move quickly toward the Lesser Antilles.  Beryl could approach Barbados on Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Beryl will be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles.  Additional Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches are likely to be issued for the Windward Islands on Saturday.  Beryl could cause major damage on some of the Windward Islands.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Beryl

Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Beryl on Friday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 9.3°N and longitude 43.6°W which put the center about 1110 miles (1785 km) east-southeast of Barbados. Beryl was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened on Friday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Beryl.  Thunderstorms just to the west of the center of Tropical Storm Beryl rose higher into the atmosphere.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.  The winds in the southern half of Beryl’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Beryl will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Beryl could strengthen to a hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will move toward the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Storm Beryl could be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles.  Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches are likely to be issued for the Windward Islands on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Two Forms East of Lesser Antilles

Tropical Depression Two formed over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Two located at latitude 9.1°N and longitude 41.9°W which put the center about 1225 miles (1970 km) east-southeast of Barbados.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A tropical wave, formerly designated as Invest 95L, exhibited more organization on Friday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two.  Visible satellite images appeared to indicated that a distinct low level center of circulation was present in Tropical Depression Two.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the apparent center of circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Two will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Two is very likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  It could strengthen to a hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Depression Two will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Two will move toward the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Depression Two could be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles.  Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches are likely to be issued for the Windward Islands either Friday night or Saturday morning.

 

Arlene Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Arlene weakened to a tropical depression northwest of Cuba on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Arlene was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 85.1°W which put it about 145 miles (230 km) west-southwest of Dry Tortugas. Arlene was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Arlene weakened to a tropical depression over the Gulf of Mexico northwest of Cuba on Saturday morning. An upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico produced westerly winds that blew across the top of Arlene’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. In addition, drier air was pulled into the circulation around former Tropical Storm Arlene. The combination of strong vertical wind shear and drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in Arlene’s circulation to weaken. Most of the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Arlene consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. There were still a few thunderstorms in bands on the eastern side of Arlene.

Tropical Depression Arlene will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Arlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C.’ However, the southern part of the upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Arlene’s circulation. Those winds will keep causing the strong vertical wind shear. The drier air in the circulation around Arlene will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. The strong vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Depression Arlene to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Arlene will be south of a large surface high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The high pressure system will move south on Saturday and it will push Arlene toward the east-southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Arlene will move north of Cuba by Saturday evening.

Tropical Depression Two Strengthens to Tropical Storm Arlene

Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Arlene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 86.2°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) west of Ft. Meyers, Florida. Arlene was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found sustained wind speeds to tropical storm force in the northeastern part of former Tropical Depression Two on Thursday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Arlene. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Arlene was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northeastern quadrant of Arlene’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Arlene generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Arlene. The winds in the other parts of Arlene were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Arlene will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Arlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, Tropical Storm Arlene will move under the southern part of an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Arlene’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Drier air to the north and west of Tropical Storm Arlene will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the western part of Arlene. The vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Storm Arlene to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Arlene will be south of a large surface high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The high pressure system will move south on Friday and it will push Tropical Storm Arlene toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Arlene will stay west of Florida. Arlene could move near the western end of Cuba by Saturday evening.