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Typhoon Malakas Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Malakas strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane southwest of Iwo To on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Malakas was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 136.6°E which put it about 605 miles (980 km) southwest of Two To. Malakas was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Typhoon Malakas strengthened quickly to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean southwest of Iwo To on Tuesday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Malakas’ circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core to Typhoon Malakas. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Malakas increased on Tuesday. Winds to typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Malakas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Malakas was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.7.

Typhoon Malakas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Malakas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Malakas’ circulation. The winds at lower levels in the atmosphere will also blow from the south and there will not be much vertical wind shear. Typhoon Malakas could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough west of Japan will move toward Malakas on Wednesday. When the upper level trough gets closer to Malakas, it will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the typhoon’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. When the shear increases later on Wednesday Typhoon Malakas could start to weaken.

The upper level trough west of Japan will start to steer Typhoon Malakas toward the northeast at a faster speed later on Wednesday. On its anticipated track Malakas could approach Iwo To in 36 hours. Typhoon Malakas will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Iwo To and the Ogasawara Islands.

Typhoon Malakas Intensifies Southwest of Iwo To

Typhoon Malakas intensified southwest of Iwo To on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Malakas was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 135.2°E which put it about 740 miles (1195 km) southwest of Two To. Malakas was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Malakas intensified more quickly over the Western North Pacific Ocean southwest of Iwo To on Tuesday morning. A circular eye developed at the center of Malakas’ circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Malakas. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Malakas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Malakas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Malakas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Malakas’ circulation. The winds at lower levels in the atmosphere will also blow from the south and there will not be much vertical wind shear. Typhoon Malakas will intensify during the next 24 hours. Malakas could undergo a period of rapid intensification since an inner core with an eye and an eyewall has developed. Typhoon Malakas could strengthen to a the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Malakas will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Malakas toward the north during that time period. Typhoon Malakas will move toward the northeast after it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Malakas could approach Iwo To in 48 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Megi weakened just east of the Philippines. There were reports of mudslides and casualties caused by heavy rain dropped by Megi. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Megi was located at latitude 11.0°N and longitude 126.0°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east of Guiuan, Philippines. Megi was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Malakas Intensifies to a Typhoon North of Yap

Former Tropical Storm Malakas intensified to a typhoon north of Yap on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Malakas was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 135.6°E which put it about 365 miles (585 km) north-northwest of Yap. Malakas was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Malakas intensified to a typhoon on Monday over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western, southern and eastern sides of the center of Malakas. An eyewall appeared to be forming, but the rainband had not yet wrapped completely around the northern side of the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Malakas. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Malakas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Malakas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Malakas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Malakas’ circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent strengthening. Typhoon Malakas will intensify during the next 36 hours. Malakas could intensify more rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops. Typhoon Malakas could strengthen to a the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Malakas will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Malakas toward the north during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Malakas will remain west of the Marianas during the next several days. Malakas will move toward the northeast after it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. Typhoon Malakas could approach Iwo To in three days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Megi dropped heavy rain over the central Philippines. There were reports of mudslides and casualties caused by the heavy rain. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Megi was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 124.0°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Placer, Philippines. Megi was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Malakas Passes Between Guam and Yap

Tropical Storm Malakas passed between Guam and Yap on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Malakas was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 139.7°E which put it about 345 miles (555 km) west of Guam. Malakas was moving toward the northwest at 29 m.p.h (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Storm Malakas brought gusty winds and heavy rain to Fais on Saturday night as it passed between Guam and Yap. The circulation around Malakas strengthened on Saturday. The heaviest rain was occurring in a band that was wrapping around the southern side of the center of Tropical Storm Malakas. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Malakas. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Malakas.

Tropical Storm Malakas will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Malakas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Malakas’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Storm Malakas will intensify during the next 36 hours. Malakas could strengthen to a typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Malakas will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Malakas toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Malakas will remain west of the Marianas during the next several days. Malakas will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. Malakas could approach Iwo To in four days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Depression 03W strengthened to Tropical Storm Megi near the Philippines. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Megi was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 125.9°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) east of Guiuan, Philippines. Megi was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb. Tropical Storm Megi could drop heavy rain over Samar and Leyte. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Malakas Spins South-southwest of Guam

Tropical Storm Malakas spun south-southwest of Guam on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Malakas was located at latitude 7.4°N and longitude 144.1°E which put it about 460 miles (740 km) south-southwest of Guam. Malakas was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

An upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific strengthened on Friday and that increased the vertical wind shear affecting Tropical Storm Malakas. The increased wind shear prevented Malakas from strengthening on Friday. When the upper level ridge strengthened, the easterly winds blowing toward the top of Malakas’ circulation strengthened. Those stronger upper level winds increased the vertical wind shear and they caused the distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Malakas to become asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Malakas’ circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Malakas will move through an environment more favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Malakas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Malakas’ circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear is forecast to decrease during the weekend. Tropical Storm Malakas will intensify during the next 36 hours. Malakas could strengthen to a typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Malakas will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Malakas toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Malakas could pass between Guam and Yap during the weekend.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 03W developed east of the Philippines. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression 03W was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 126.8°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) southeast of Legazpi, Philippines. The tropical depression was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Depression 02W Strengthens to Tropical Storm Malakas

Former Tropical Depression 02W strengthened to Tropical Storm Malakas south of Guam on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Malakas was located at latitude 5.3°N and longitude 146.2°E which put it about 605 miles (970 km) south of Guam. Malakas was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Storm Malakas was strengthening on Thursday night. Malakas exhibited more organization on satellite images. More thunderstorms were developing in all parts of the circulation around Tropical Storm Malakas. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Malakas. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the northern half of Malakas’ circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Malakas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Malakas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Malakas’ circulation. The winds will also be blowing from the east at most other levels in the troposphere. Since the winds will be blowing from the same direction at different levels, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Malakas will intensify during the next 36 hours. Malakas could strengthen to a typhoon within the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Malakas will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Malakas toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Malakas could pass between Guam and Yap in 48 hours.

Typhoon Surigae Moves away from the Philippines

Typhoon Surigae started to move away from the Philippines on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Surigae was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 124.9°E which put it about 240 miles (385 km) east-northeast of Aparri, Philippines. Surigae was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Typhoon Surigae weakened slowly on Wednesday as it started to move farther away from the Philippines. A large circular eye with a diameter of 70 miles (110 km) was present at the center of Surigae. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the stronger winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Surigae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Surigae still had a large circulation on Wednesday. Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Surigae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Surigae was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.2. Surigae was still the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Surigae will move into an environment that will become less favorable for a strong typhoon during the next several days. Surigae will move over cooler water northeast of the Philippines where the Sea Surface Temperatures is near 26°C. In addition, an upper level trough over China will move toward Typhoon Surigae. The trough will produce westerly winds which will blow toward the top of the typhoon. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of cooler water and more wind shear will cause Typhoon Surigae to weaken during the next 48 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Typhoon Surigae toward the east-northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Surigae will move away from the Philippines and it will stay southeast of Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands. Surigae could approach Iwo To by the end of the weekend.

Typhoon Surigae Stalls East of Luzon

Typhoon Surigae stalled east of Luzon on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Surigae was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 126.1°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) east of Baler, Philippines. Surigae was moving toward the north-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Typhoon Surigae completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Monday. The inner eyewall weakened to a swirl of low clouds. There was a large circular eye at the center of Surigae. The eye had a diameter of 60 miles (95 km). The large eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Surigae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The eyewall replacement cycle left Typhoon Surigae with a symmetrical circulation. Winds to typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Surigae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Surigae was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.0.

Typhoon Surigae will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours. Surigae will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the end of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Surigae will be moving slowly and it could mix cooler water to the surface. The cooler water could cause Surigae to weaken gradually.

Typhoon Surigae will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Surigae toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. After that time Typhoon Surigae will approach the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. Those winds will turn Surigae toward the east. On its anticipated track, the core Typhoon Surigae with the strongest winds will remain east of Luzon.

Typhoon Surigae Spins East of the Philippines

Typhoon Surigae spun east of the Philippines on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Surigae was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 126.4°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) east of Daet, Philippines. Surigae was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (275 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 934 mb.

An eyewall replacement cycle was underway in the core of Typhoon Surigae and the typhoon was weakening. The inner part of a rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall and a much larger outer eyewall formed. The low level winds converged into the outer eyewall and the inner eyewall weakened. The fastest wind speeds were in the inner eyewall. So, the maximum wind speed decreased when the inner eyewall weakened. There were still remnants of the original inner eyewall inside the outer eyewall, but the strongest wind speeds were occurring in the outer eyewall.

Typhoon Surigae was still large and powerful. Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Surigae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Surigae was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.2.

Typhoon Surigae will move through an environment capable of supporting a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Surigae will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. However, the winds at lower levels in the atmosphere will also blow from the south and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Surigae will likely weaken gradually as the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Typhoon Surigae will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 48 hours. The high will steer Surigae toward the north-northwest during the next 48 hours. After that time Typhoon Surigae will approach the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. Those winds will turn Surigae toward the northeast. On its anticipated track, the core Typhoon Surigae with the strongest winds will remain east of Luzon.

Typhoon Surigae Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Surigae rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simspson Scale on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Surigae was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 128.8°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) east-southeast of Laoang, Philippines. Surigae was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (345 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 900 mb.

Typhoon Surigae continued to intensify rapidly on Saturday. There was a circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) at the center of Surigae. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Surigae. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

Typhoon Surigae was a large and powerful typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Surigae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Surigae was 42.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 65.9.

Typhoon Surigae will move through an environment capable of supporting a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Surigae will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. However, the winds at lower levels in the atmosphere will also blow from the southeast and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Surigae may have attained its maximum intensity even though it will move through a very favorable environment. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Surigae to weaken.

Typhoon Surigae will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Surigae toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. After that time Typhoon Surigae will move more toward the north. On its anticipated track the core Typhoon Surigae with the strongest winds is forecast to pass east of the Philippines.