Typhoon In-Fa Turns Toward Iwo To

Typhoon In-fa turned northeast and started to move toward Iwo To late on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Typhoon In-Fa was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 132.6°E which put it about 695 miles (1120 km) southwest of Iwo To.  In-Fa was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Although In-Fa may be beginning to respond to increased vertical wind shear, it remains a well organized typhoon.  There are signs that a cloud filled eye still exists at the core of In-Fa.  The eye is surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The outer portion of In-Fa’s circulation is becoming more asymmetrical, which is probably the result of increased wind shear.  Most of the thunderstorms outside the core are north and east of the center of circulation.  There are few thunderstorms in the southwestern part of In-Fa.

Typhoon In-Fa is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  In-Fa will move over increasingly cooler SSTs as it moves northeast.  The strength of the upper level southwesterly winds will increase as In-Fa moves northeast.  The combination of cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear will cause Typhoon In-Fa to weaken during the next several days.  It could weaken to a tropical storm by Wednesday.

An upper level trough is steering Typhoon In-Fa toward the northeast and that general motion is expected to continue during the next 48 hours.  In-Fa could start to move faster as the upper level winds increase.  In-Fa could be near Iwo To in about 48 hours.

Tropical Depression 22E Forms Southwest of Mexico

A small center of circulation formed within a larger area of thunderstorms southwest of Mexico on Monday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression 22E.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Depression 22E (TD22E) was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 102.9°W which put it about 465 miles (750 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  TD22E was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

TD22E is still in the early stages of an organizational process.  The small center of circulation is located near the western end of a long band of thunderstorms.  There are not many thunderstorms south and west of the center and there is not much evidence of spiral bands.  A subtropical ridge northeast of TD22E is pushing the depression quickly toward the west and its rapid movement is retarding the organizational process.

TD22E is currently in an environment that is marginal for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C, which is very favorable for intensification.  However, the ridge northeast of TD22E is causing strong easterly winds to blow over the top of the depression.  The strong vertical wind shear and the rapid motion of the depression are negative factors for intensification.

As TD22E moves farther west, the vertical wind shear is expected to decrease and the depression is expected to move more slowly.  When that happens, TD22E will be able to more efficiently use the energy it is getting from the warm water and it will intensify.  A period of rapid intensification may occur once the core of the circulation is better organized.  TD22E could become a tropical storm on Tuesday and it could become a hurricane later this week.

The subtropical ridge is steering TD22E quickly toward the west.  In another 24 to 36 hours TD22E is likely to reach the western end of the ridge.  At that time it will slow down and turn toward the north.  TD22E will encounter southwesterly winds when it moves farther north.  Those winds will push TD22E toward the northeast later this week.  On its anticipated track TD22E could be near the southern tip of Baja California by the end of the week.

Typhoon In-Fa Passes North of Yap

The center of Typhoon In-Fa passed north of Yap on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon In-Fa was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 136.0°E which put it about 285 miles (465 km) north-northwest of Yap.  In-Fa was moving toward the west-northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

The structure of Typhoon In-Fa deteriorated slightly on Saturday, but it remains the equivalent of a major hurricane.  Fewer thunderstorms formed in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation and there are indications that a gap may have opened on the northwestern side of the eyewall.  It is possible that some drier air could have been pulled into that part of the circulation.  However, an eye may still exist at the center of circulation and there are multiple bands around the eastern and southern sides of the typhoon.

Typhoon In-Fa is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds over the top of the circulation are light and there is not much vertical wind shear over the core of the typhoon.  Typhoon In-Fa could maintain its intensity or weaken slowly on Sunday.  When it moves farther north, it will encounter stronger southwesterly winds which will increase the vertical wind shear.  When the wind shear increases, the rate of weakening will increase.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon In-Fa toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  In-Fa could reach the western end of the ridge and turn northward on Monday.  In 36 to 48 hours the southwesterly upper level winds will start to push the typhoon toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon In-Fa could be near Iwo To in about four days.

TD 21E Intensifies into Tropical Storm Rick

The organization of Tropical Depression 21E improved slightly on Thursday and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to Tropical Storm Rick.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Rick was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 108.1°W which put it about 365 miles (585 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Rick was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Depression 21E for a few hours on Thursday and the improved organization prompted the National Hurricane Center to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Rick.  The organization of Rick has diminished in recent hours. The stronger thunderstorms are located northwest of the center of circulation and there are few thunderstorms in the rest of the Rick.  An upper level ridge located east of the tropical storm is producing southerly winds over the top of Rick.  The vertical wind shear is causing the stronger thunderstorms to be northwest of the center.

Rick is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is enough energy in the ocean to support intensification.  However, the strong vertical wind shear is likely to limit intensification and it could weaken Rick if it the shear gets stronger.

The ridge east of Rick is expected to strengthen and to continue to steer the tropical storm toward the west-northwest for another day or two.  After that time Rick will reach the western end of the ridge, and the tropical storm will turn more toward the north.

In-Fa Intensifies Back Into a Typhoon and a Tropical Storm Warning Is Issued for Guam

In-Fa intensified rapidly back into a typhoon on Thursday and a Tropical Storm Warning was issued for Guam.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon In-Fa was located at latitude 10.1°N and longitude 148.1°E which put it about 365 miles (590 km) southeast of Guam.  In-Fa was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

After weakening slightly on Wednesday, In-Fa intensified rapidly back into a typhoon on Thursday.  Typhoon In-Fa has a compact tightly wound structure with a small inner core and a tiny pinhole eye.  The strongest winds are contained in the ring of thunderstorms around the pinhole eye.  Many of the strongest thunderstorms outside the eyewall are located southwest of the eye, but there are spiral bands in all quadrants of the storm.  The storms around the core of Typhoon In-Fa are generating upper level divergence in all directions.

Typhoon In-Fa is an environment favorable for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds around In-Fa are light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  In-Fa is likely to intensify more during the next day or two.

A subtropical ridge north of In-Fa is steering the typhoon to the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another 48 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of In-Fa is likely to pass about 100 miles (160 km) to 150 miles (240 km) south of Guam in about 18 to 24 hours.  The center of Typhoon In-Fa is likely to pass about 200 miles (320 km) northeast of Yap in about 48 hours.

Tropical Storm In-Fa Near Fananu, Watch Issued for Guam

Tropical Storm In-Fa is near Fananu and it is bringing wind and rain to islands around Chuuk.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm In-Fa was located near latitude 8.6°N and longitude 152.0°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) southeast of Fananu and about 620 miles (1000 km) southeast of Guam.  In-Fa was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Guam.  A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Chuuk lagoon, Losap, Ulul and Fananu.

In-Fa was briefly a typhoon earlier on Wednesday when it had a small, but well formed eye.  However, the core of In-Fa weakened slightly and the eye filled with clouds.  A small, but circular, area of thunderstorms has intensified in the core of the tropical storm during the past few hours.  There are signs that In-Fa may be strengthening again.  The environment surrounding Tropical Storm In-Fa is favorable for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  The upper level winds are light and the vertical wind shear is modest.  In-Fa could regain typhoon intensity on Thursday and a period of rapid intensification may be possible once the inner core reorganizes.

A subtropical ridge north of In-Fa is steering the tropical storm toward the northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another two or three days.  On its anticipated track the center of In-Fa will pass near Fananu during the next few hours.  In-Fa could be south of Guam in about 48 hours.

Poorly Organized Tropical Depression 21E Forms West of Mexico

A low level circulation center formed in a cluster of thunderstorms west of Mexico and the National Hurricane Center decided it had enough organization to be classified as a tropical depression.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression 21E (TD21E) was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 106.1°W which put it about 420 miles (675 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  TD21E was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The  minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

TD21E looked more well organized earlier today when the low level center of circulation was located within the area of thunderstorms.  The low level center is now southeast of an area of weakening thunderstorms, which is an indication that the tropical depression is poorly organized.  Most of the remaining thunderstorms are located north of the low level center.

The tropical depression is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  However, the environment is not really favorable for intensification.  An upper level ridge east of the depression is causing southerly winds over the top of TD21E.  Those winds are generating vertical wind shear over the top of the depression.  The wind shear has blown the thunderstorms north of circulation center.  Some slight intensification may be possible if the wind shear decreases, but the poor organization of the depression will limit any potential strengthening.

If the tropical depression retains its vertical integrity, the southerly winds in the upper levels should push it toward the north.  However, if the wind shear blows the thunderstorms farther north of the low level center of circulation, then the low level center could remain stationary while it spins down.

Tropical Storm In-Fa Intensifying, Typhoon Watch for Fananu

Tropical Storm In-Fa intensified quickly on Tuesday and it caused watches and warnings to be issued for the area around Chuuk.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm In-Fa was located at latitude 6.0°N and longitude 156.3°E which put it about 385 miles (620 km) east-southeast of Fananu and about 985 miles (1590 km) east-southeast of Guam.  In-Fa was moving toward the west-northwest 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.  A Typhoon Watch has been issued for Fananu.

The circulation of Tropical Storm In-Fa organized rapidly on Tuesday.  A tight core formed in the center of circulation and an eyelike feature appeared on satellite images.  A small ring of thunderstorms formed around the eye and a large primary rainband wrapped around the circulation.  The circulation became more symmetrical and upper level outflow began to create divergence in most directions.

Tropical Storm In-Fa remains in an environment favorable for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.   The upper level winds are light and the vertical wind shear is modest.  In-Fa is likely to continue to intensify and now that an inner core has developed, it could intensify rapidly.  In-Fa could become a typhoon on Wednesday and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

A subtropical ridge north of In-Fa is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for the rest of the week.  On its anticipated track In-Fa will approach Fananu in about 24 hours and it could be a typhoon at that time.  In-Fa could be approaching Guam in about three days as a typhoon.

Tropical Depression 27W Forms Southeast of Pohnpei

A center of circulation formed in an area of thunderstorms southeast of Pohnpei and the system was designated Tropical Depression 27W (TD 27W).  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Depression 27W was located at latitude 4.7°N and longitude 162.3°E which put it about 360 miles (585 km) east-southeast of Pohnpei.  TD 27W was moving to the west at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

The circulation of TD 27W is still organizing.  A clearly defined low level center of circulation formed near the northern edge of an area of thunderstorms.  However, most of the stronger thunderstorms are southwest of the center.  Those storms are generating upper level divergence that is expanding south and west of the center.

Tropical Depression 27W is in an environment that favors further intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge north of TD 27W is producing light easterly winds over the top of the depression.  The vertical wind shear is modest, and it should only slow the rate of intensification.  Intensification could be slow initially as a stronger inner core forms around the center of circulation.  Once the core of the circulation consolidates, then intensification could occur more quickly.  TD 27W could become a tropical storm within 24 to 36 hours and it could be a typhoon in three or four days.

A subtropical ridge north of TD 27W is steering the depression toward the west.  A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected and that general motion is expected to continue for much of the week.  On its anticipated track TD 27W could be near Pohnpei in about 24 hours and it could bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain.  The tropical cyclone could be approaching Guam by the end of the week and it could be a typhoon by that time.

Kate Becomes a Hurricane As It Races Northeast

Kate intensified into the fourth Atlantic hurricane of 2015 as it raced northeastward.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Kate was located at latitude 36.8°N and longitude 60.5°W which put it about 395 miles (635 km) northeast of Bermuda and about 780 miles (1160 km) south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Kate was moving toward the northeast at 45 m.p.h. (72 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The organization of Hurricane Kate improved on Wednesday when a partial eyewall wrapped around the northern and western sides of the center of circulation.  The structure of Kate is somewhat tilted toward the northeast by stronger southwesterly wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  However, Kate currently has a warm core and it is still a tropical cyclone.  Kate is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 25°C.  In a day or so the effects of strong vertical wind shear and cooler SSTs will cause Hurricane Kate to begin a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Strong westerly winds are steering Kate rapidly toward the northeast and that general motion is expected to continue during the next few days.  Kate could approach the United Kingdom as a strong extratropical cyclone during the weekend.