Tag Archives: HWISI

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasa Hits Fiji

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasa hit Fiji early on Thursday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 179.2°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south of Naduri, Fiji. Yasa was moving toward the east-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

The eye of Tropical Cyclone Yasa made landfall in Fiji on Vanua Levu west of Naduri early on Thursday. Yasa was a large, powerful tropical cyclone when it hit Fiji. Tropical Cyclone Yasa was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Yasa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Yasa was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 54.7. Yasa was capable of causing severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa brought destructive winds to Vanua Levu when the core of the circulation passed over that island. Severe wind damage was likely. Yasa was capable of causing a storm surge of up to 15 feet (5 meters) on the north coast of Vanua Levu. It was also dropping heavy rain and flash floods were likely. Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Yasa caused strong winds and heavy rain over the eastern part of Viti Levu. Widespread power outages were likely.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will move toward the southeast over the islands in the Lau Group later on Thursday. Yasa will weaken as it crosses Vanua Levu, but it will still be a strong tropical cyclone. Tropical Cyclone Yasa could cause serious wind damage and cause flash floods on many of the islands in the Lau Group.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Yasa strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 174.5°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Yasa was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale northwest of Fiji on Tuesday night. An eye with at diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Yasa. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Yasa. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Yasa was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 54.3. Tropical Cyclone Yasa was capable of causing regional catastrophic damage.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will move through an environment capable of sustaining an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Yasa will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Yasa will remain an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If that happens, then an eyewall replacement cyclone could cause Yasa to start to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system near the Equator. The high will steer Yasa toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Yasa could reach Fiji in less than 36 hours. Yasa will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Fiji. The center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa could pass over Vanua Levu. Yasa could bring very strong winds and locally heavy rain to the some of the most populated parts of Fiji. Tropical Cyclone Yasa could cause severe damage to Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, the center of Tropical Cyclone Zazu was moving away from of Niue. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zazu was located at latitude 21.7°S and longitude 169.6°W which put it about 130 miles (210 km) south of Niue. Zazu was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Yasa rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa was located at latitude 14.7°S and longitude 173.8°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Yasa was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale northwest of Fiji on Tuesday. An eye with at diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Yasa. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Yasa. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Yasa was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.1. Tropical Cyclone Yasa was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Yasa will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Yasa is could strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If that happens, then an eyewall replacement cyclone could cause Yasa to start to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system near the Equator. The high will steer Yasa toward the southeast during the next two days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Yasa could approach Fiji in 36 hours. Yasa will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Fiji. The center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa could pass between Vanua Levu and Viti Levu. Yasa could bring very strong winds and locally heavy rain to the most populated parts of Fiji. Tropical Cyclone Yasa could cause severe damage to Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, the center of Tropical Cyclone Zazu passed southwest of Niue. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zazu was located at latitude 20.6°S and longitude 170.7°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southwest of Niue. Zazu was moving toward the southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gati Intensifies Explosively near Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Gati intensified explosively near the northeast coast of Somalia during Saturday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 52.0°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east of Hafun, Somalia. It was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gati strengthened extremely rapidly on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) developed at the center of Gati. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Gati generated very strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease very rapidly, which contributed to the explosive intensification.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gati was very small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Gati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gati was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.1. The structure of Gati was similar to that of midget typhoons sometimes observed over the Western North Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Gati could strengthen further during the next few hours before it makes landfall on the northeast coast of Somalia. Gati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gati will weaken quickly after it makes landfall in Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Gati will move south of a high pressure system over th Arabian Peninsula. The high will steer Gati toward the west during the next 36 to 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gati wil make landfall near Hafun, Somalia in about six hours. Gati will be capable of causing major damage around Hafun. It will drop heavy rain over parts of northeastern Somalia and flash floods could occur.

Dangerous Hurricane Iota Hits Nicaragua

Dangerous Hurricane Iota hit Nicaragua with powerful winds and heavy rain on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Hurricane Iota was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 83.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Iota was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (300 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to Punta Patuca, Honduras. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua and from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for San Andres and Providencia Island.

Hurricane Iota was a powerful hurricane when it made landfall on the coast of Nicaragua just to the south of Puerto Cabezas. Iota was at Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center, The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Iota was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.6. Iota was capable of causing regional significant damage.

Hurricane Iota made landfall on the same portion of the coast of Nicaragua devastated by Hurricane Eta two weeks ago. Iota will compound the damage caused by Eta. Strong winds will cause additional damage and they will destroy temporary shelters erected after Hurricane Eta. The winds blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6 meters) south of Puerto Cabezas.

Hurricane Iota will continue to move toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Iota will move across northern Nicaragua, southern Honduras and El Salvador. The winds around Hurricane Iota will weaken steadily as it moves inland. Iota will drop heavy rain over Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. The heavy rain will cause flash floods and some floods will occur in the same locations flooded by Hurricane Eta.

Typhoon Vamco Makes Landfall Northeast of Manila

Typhoon Vamco made landfall on Luzon northeast of Manila on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Vamco was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 120.6°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) northeast of Manila, Philippines. Vamco was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Vamco was strengthening when it made landfall on Luzon. Vamco was nearly the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall. The circulation around Typhoon Vamco also increased in size prior to landfall. Winds to typhoon force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the northern side of Vamco. Winds to force extended out 40 miles (65 km) on the southern side of the typhoon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 350 miles in the northern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles in the southern half of Vamco. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Vamco was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.4 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.6. Typhoon Vamco was capable of causing widespread serious damage to Luzon.

The center of Typhoon Vamco passed over the Polillo Islands before it reached Luzon. The center of Vamco will pass just north Manila, but it will be close enough to cause strong winds. The center will pass near San Fernando and Olongapo before it moves over the South China Sea. Typhoon Vamco will drop very heavy rain over Luzon and significant floods could occur. There will also be widespread power outages.

Typhoon Vamco will weaken as it passes over Luzon, but Vamco could still be a typhoon when it reaches the South China Sea. A high pressure system over eastern Asia will steer Typhoon Vamco toward the west. On its anticipated track Vamco could approach Vietnam in two or three days.

Major Hurricane Eta Makes Landfall in Nicaragua

Major Hurricane Eta made landfall on the coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Eta was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 83.5°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Eta was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Punta Patuca, Honduras.

Hurricane Eta moved very slowly onto the coast of Nicaragua just to south of Puerto Cabezas on Tuesday afternoon. Concentric eyewalls developed around the center of Eta before it made landfall. The start of an eyewall replacement cycle caused the intensity of Hurricane Eta to remain relatively steady as it approached the coast of Nicaragua. An environment favorable for strong hurricanes allowed Eta to continue to be a major hurricane at the time of landfall.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hurricane Eta at the time it made landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Eta was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.7.

Hurricane Eta was capable of causing significant wind damage. over northeastern Nicaragua. The northern eyewall which contained the strongest winds passed over Puerto Cabezas. Eta could also cause a storm surge of 15 to 18 feet (5 to 6 meters) along the coast near Puerto Cabezas. Hurricane Eta will weaken as it moves slowly inland over northern Nicaragua and the wind speeds will decrease quickly. Eta will drop very heavy rain over northern Nicaragua and Honduras. Some locations could receive 20 to 30 inches (50 to 75 cm). The heavy rain could cause catastrophic flash floods in parts of Nicaragua and Honduras.

Eta will move more toward the northwest on Wednesday and the circulation could emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. There is a chance that Eta could strengthen back to a tropical storm if the circulation moves back over water. Eta could bring gusty winds and rain to the Florida Keys by Sunday.

Hurricane Eta Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Eta rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua on Monday afternoon. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Hurricane Eta was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 82.0°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) east of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Eta was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Punta Patuca, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Punta Patuca, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla, Honduras.

Hurricane Eta continued to intensify rapidly on Monday afternoon. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) developed at the center of Hurricane Eta. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms near the center of Eta generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly, which contributed to rapid intensification. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Eta.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Eta was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.7. Hurricane Eta was capable of causing major damage.

Hurricane Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 9 hours. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Eta is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours and it could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Eta will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will steer Eta toward the west during the next 24 to 36 hours. On its anticipated path Hurricane Eta could approach the coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday morning. Eta will be a major hurricane when it reaches Nicaragua. The steering currents will weaken when Hurricane Eta nears Nicaragua. Eta will move slowly when that happens and it could drop very heavy rain over Nicaragua and Honduras. Catastrophic flash floods could occur in that region.

Dangerous Typhoon Goni Hits Catanduanes

Extremely dangerous Typhoon Goni hit Catanduanes Island on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 124.4°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Virac, Philippines. Goni was moving toward the west-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 235 m.p.h. (380 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 884 mb.

The eye of Typhoon Goni moved over the southern part of Catanduanes Island on Saturday. Despite the development of concentric eyewalls and the occurrence of an eyewall replacement cycle, Goni actually strengthened on Saturday. The original inner eyewall weakened and the outer eyewall contracted around the center of Typhoon Goni. Goni exhibited an eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) when it made landfall on Catanduanes Island.

The circulation around Typhoon Goni increased in size during the eyewall replacement cycle. Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Goni. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Goni was 48.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 64.0. Typhoon Goni was capable of causing catastrophic damage on a regional scale.

Typhoon Goni will also generate a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6 meters) along the coasts of Catanduanes Island and southeastern Luzon. Typhoon Goni will move west across the Philippines. Goni will weaken as the core passes over land. The center of Goni will make landfall in southeastern Luzon near Tabaco. The southern eyewall of Goni will produce strong winds in Legaspi. The northern eyewall will bring strong winds to Naga. Typhoon Goni could be near Manila in 18 hours and it could still be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time. Goni will also drop locally heavy rain over southern Luzon and flash floods are likely.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Atsani was organizing slowly east of the Philippines. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Atsani was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 135.8°E which put it about 900 miles (1450 km) east of Luzon. Atsani was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb. Tropical Storm Atsani was forecast to move toward the west and to strengthen.

Potentially Catastrophic Typhoon Goni Nears Luzon

Potentially catastrophic Typhoon Goni neared Luzon on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 126.9°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east-northeast of Labo, Philippines. Goni was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 898 mb.

Typhoon Goni exhibited a double eyewall structure sometimes seen in very intense tropical cyclones. There was a small inner eye with a diameter of 6 miles (10 km). That eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that inner eyewall. A second, outer eyewall with a diameter of 35 miles (56 km) surrounded the inner core of Typhoon Goni. Storms near the core of Gone generated strong upper level divergence which pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon. The removal of so much mass allowed the surface pressure to remain very low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Goni increased in size when the double eyewalls formed. Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Goni. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Goni was 42.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 55.8. Typhoon Goni was capable of causing catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Goni will move through an environment favorable for a strong typhoon during the next 12 hours. Goni will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. An eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Goni to start to weaken. If the original inner eyewall dissipates and convergence becomes concentrated into the new outer eyewall, then the wind speed will decrease. However, Goni is likely to maintain much of its intensity until it reaches Luzon.

Typhoon Goni will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Goni toward the west. On its anticipated track Typhoon Goni will be near Cataduanes Island in 12 48 hours. Goni could be near Manila in 24 hours. Typhoon Goni is capable of causing catastrophic damage to Luzon. Goni could generate a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6 meters) along the coast of southeastern Luzon. Typhoon Goni will drop heavy rain over parts of Luzon and flash floods are likely.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Atsani moved north of Yap. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Atsani was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 138.2°E which put it about 1060 miles (1705 km) east of Luzon. Astani was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb. Tropical Storm Atsani was forecast to move toward the northwest and to strengthen.