Tag Archives: the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nock-ten Strengthens on Its Way to the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nock-ten strengthened as it moved closer to the Philippines on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nock-ten was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 132.7°E which put it about 850 miles (1370 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Nock-ten was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Even though Tropical Storm Nock-ten moved quickly on Thursday the circulation continued to organized.  A mid-level eye appeared to develop on microwave satellite imagery.  Additional rainbands developed outside the core of the tropical storm.  Thunderstorms around the core of Nock-ten generated strong upper level divergence that pumped out mass in all directions.

Tropical Storm Nock-ten is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the east of Nock-ten is producing southeasterly winds that are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  However, Tropical Storm Nock-ten is moving fairly rapidly toward the west-northwest.  The rapid motion is reducing the effective vertical wind shear, and so the wind shear is not inhibiting intensification.  Tropical Storm Nock-ten will continue to strengthen and it should become a typhoon within 12 to 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Nock-ten is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  The subtropical ridge is expected to strengthen after that time and it will steer Nock-ten more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Nock-ten will approach southeast Luzon in about 48 hours.

Nock-ten is likely to be a strong typhoon when it reaches the Philippines.  It could be the equivalent of a major hurricane.  In addition to strong winds, Nock-ten will generate a storm surge  and produce locally heavy rains.  It will produce a risk of floods and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Nock-ten Forms Near Yap

Tropical Storm Nock-ten formed near Yap on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nock-ten was located at latitude 9.1°N and longitude 138.4°E which put it about 85 miles (140 km) southeast of Yap.  Nock-ten was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A distinct center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms near Yap and the system was named Tropical Storm Nock-ten.  The circulation of Nock-ten is still organizing.  A small well defined center exists at the core of the circulation.  A band of thunderstorms is beginning to wrap around the center.  Several additional bands of thunderstorms formed in the northern part of the circulation.  Thunderstorms near the center are beginning to generate upper level divergence which is pumping mass out to the west of the center.

Tropical Storm Nock-ten will move through an environment that is moderately favorable for intensification.  Nock-ten will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge north of Nock-ten is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing across the top of the tropical storm.  Those winds are preventing upper level divergence to east of Nock-ten.  Those winds are also causing moderate vertical wind shear which is slowing the rate of intensification.  When Nock-ten moves a little farther west, the vertical wind shear is expected to diminish and faster intensification could occur.  Nock-ten could intensify into a typhoon during the next several days.

A subtropical ridge north of Nock-ten is steering the tropical storm toward the northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  The ridge could strengthen during the weekend and it could turn Nock-ten more toward the west in a couple of days.  On its anticipate track Tropical Storm Nock-ten could approach the Philippines in three or four days.  Nock-ten could be a typhoon by the time it reaches the Philippines.

Tropical Storm Tokage Develops Over the Central Philippines

A distinct center of circulation developed within a cluster of thunderstorms over the central Philippines on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Tokage.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Tokage was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 122.0°E which put it near the northwestern tip of Panay Island and about 235 miles (380 km) south-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Tokage was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The core of the circulation of Tropical Storm Tokage is still organizing.  An inner band of thunderstorms wraps around the western and southern sides of the center of circulation.  An outer rainband wraps around the northern side of the circulation from the northeastern to the southwestern quadrants.  Thunderstorms near the core of Tokage are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the west and north of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Tokage will be moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Tokage will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge east of Tokage is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing against the tropical storm.  Although those winds are restricting upper level divergence on the southeast side of Tokage, the overall effect of the vertical wind shear is minor.  Tropical Storm Tokage is likely to intensify during the next day or two and it could reach typhoon intensity.

Tokage is moving around the southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical storm to the west-northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.   After that time Tropical Storm Tokage will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge and it will begin to move toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Tokage will pass near Mindoro Island and the Calamian Group during the next 12 hours.  It will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to those islands.  Tokage is likely to pass west of Luzon.

Tropical Storm Meari Reorganizes West of Guam

The circulation designated as Tropical Storm Meari reorganized west of Guam on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Meari was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 139.0°E which put it about 415 miles (670 km) west of Guam.  Meari was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Meari initially formed as a smaller counterclockwise circulation within a much broader cyclonic circulation that stretched from the Northern Mariana Islands toward the Philippines.  The initial surface center weakened on Thursday and a new center of circulation organized northeast of the original center.  A primary rainband began to wrap around the southern and east side of the low level center.  Numerous other bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming within the broader cyclonic circulation.  More bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing southwest of the new center and fewer bands were northeast of the center.  The new center of circulation is still consolidating and Tropical Storm Meari still does not have a well developed core.

Although Meari is still not well organized, the tropical storm is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Tropical Storm Meari is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge is located over Tropical Storm Meari and the upper level winds are weak.  So, there is little vertical wind shear.  Warm water and little shear should allow Tropical Storm Meari to continue to intensify.  The lack of a well formed inner core and the large broad cyclonic circulation will slow the rate of strengthening.

The reformation of the center of circulation farther toward the northeast caused the forecast track guidance from numerical models to shift to a more northeasterly track.  If the current center of Tropical Storm Meari persists, it is located near the western end of a subtropical ridge.  Meari is expected to move toward the northeast around the western end of the ridge.  When Meari moves farther north, westerly winds in the middle latitudes will accelerate the tropical storm toward the northeast.

Tropical Storm Meari Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Meari formed east of the Philippines on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Meari was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 136.4°E which put it about 1045 miles (1685 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Meari was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A distinct center of circulation began to consolidate inside a broad area of low pressure located between Guam and the Philippines on Wednesday.  The center acquired enough characteristics of a tropical cyclone to be classified as Tropical Storm Meari by the Japan Meteorological Agency.  The low level center is still consolidating, but multiple spiral rainbands are forming.  More thunderstorms are forming south and west of the center and there are fewer storms north and east of center.

Tropical Storm Meari formed in an environment that is favorable for further intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Meari is organizing beneath an upper level ridge which is an area of weaker winds.  There is little vertical wind shear and the upper level ridge is providing some upper level divergence.  Meari is likely to strengthen slowly while the core of the circulation organizes, but it could intensify more quickly once a well formed center exists.  Tropical Storm Meari could eventually strengthen into a typhoon.

A subtropical ridge located north of Meari is slowly steering the tropical storm toward the west.  That general motion is expected to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Meari will move gradually closer to the Philippines.

Typhoon Haima Producing Strong Winds and Heavy Rain Over Northern Luzon

Typhoon Haima was producing strong winds and heavy rain as it moved across northern Luzon on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 120.8°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) east of Laoag, Philippines.  Haima was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

The center of Typhoon Haima moved quickly across northern Luzon on Wednesday.  Haima made landfall on northeastern Luzon east of Tuguegarao.  As it moved toward the west-northwest the center of Typhoon Haima passed near Tuao and Dingras.  The center also passed over the Cordillera Central, where it produced very heavy rain in places where the wind was blowing up the slopes of the mountains.

Movement across the mountain ranges in northern Luzon weakened Typhoon Haima and an eye is no longer evident on satellite images.  However, Haima is still a large, powerful typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extend out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 240 miles (390 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Haima is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 25.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.2.  The indices indicate that Typhoon Haima is capable of causing widespread major wind damage.

The core of Typhoon Haima is not as well organized as it was before the typhoon made landfall in Luzon.   Some reorganization of the core could occur when Typhoon Haima moves over the South China Sea.  Haima will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and Typhoon Haima is still producing strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away in all directions.  Typhoon Haima could restrengthen somewhat or maintain its intensity after the center moves northwest of the Philippines.  When Haima nears the coast of China, it will approach an upper level trough and vertical wind shear will increase.  So, Typhoon Haima is likely to be on a weakening trend when it makes landfall in China.

Typhoon Haima is moving around the western end of subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the west-northwest.  Typhoon Haima is likely to move more toward the northwest after it leaves Luzon and reaches the end of the ridge.  When Typhoon Haima nears the coast of China, it will move under southwesterly winds caused by an upper level trough over China.  Those winds will turn Haima more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Haima could make a landfall in China northeast of Hong Kong in about 36 hours.

Typhoon Haima will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rains over parts of northern Luzon for a few more hours until the core of the typhoon moves northwest of that region.  The heavy rain has the potential to cause floods and mudslides.  Although Typhoon Haima is likely to be weakening when it reaches the coast of China, it will still be capable of producing strong winds, heavy rain, floods and a storm surge along the coast.

Typhoon Haima Equal to Cat. 5 Hurricane, Threatens Luzon

Typhoon Haima intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 128.4°E which put it about 400 miles (640 km) east of northern Luzon.  Haima was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 919 mb.

Typhoon Haima completed an eyewall replacement cycle and it intensified as the outer eyewall contracted.  Haima is a very well organized, symmetrical typhoon.  Haima has a clear circular eye surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Haima are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping away large quantities of mass in all directions.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center.

Typhoon Haima is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is very little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Haima is moving on a track that is a little to the north of the track taken by Typhoon Sarika.  This means that the core of Haima is moving north of cooler water mixed to the surface by Typhoon Sarika.  Typhoon Haima could intensify more during the next 12 to 24 hours.  However, if another eyewall replacement cycle occurs, then there could be fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Haima toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Haima will approach northern Luzon in about 24 hours.  After Haima moves across Luzon it will reach the western end of the ridge and turn more toward the northwest.  Typhoon Haima could be near the coast of China in 72 hours.

Haima is an extremely dangerous typhoon.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Haima is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 21.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 56.2.  The indices indicate that Typhoon Haima is capable of causing widespread catastrophic wind damage.  In addition Typhoon Haima will produce very heavy rain over northern Luzon including over some locations hit by Typhoon Sarika a few days ago.  The heavy rain will create the potential for flash floods and mudslides.  Haima will also generate a significant storm surge in locations where the wind pushes the water toward the coast.

Typhoons Sarika and Haima Churning Over Western North Pacific

Typhoons Sarika and Haima churned across the western North Pacific Ocean on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 113.7°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) east-southeast of Hainan Island.  Sarika was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 135.9°E which put it about 935 miles (1505 km) east-southeast of Luzon.  Haima was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Sarika was disrupted somewhat when it crossed northern Luzon.  Thunderstorms around the eye weakened and breaks developed in the eyewall.  More and stronger thunderstorms developed around the center of circulation today and an eye has become more apparent on satellite imagery.  Numerous rainbands are rotating around the rest of the circulation.  Upper level divergence is increasing, which will increase the removal of mass from the core of Typhoon Sarika.

Typhoon Sarika is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Sarika is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is above 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Sarika is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could intensify quickly if the eye finishes reforming.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Sarika toward the west .  Sarika is nearing the western end of the ridge and the typhoon is expected to turn more toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Sarika could be near Hainan Island in about 24 hours.  After it crosses Hainan Island, Marika could approach the coast of northern Vietnam in about two days.  Typhoon Sarika will bring strong winds and very heavy rain to Hainan.  It will weaken when it moves across Hainan, but Sarika could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Vietnam and parts of southeastern China.

Typhoon Haima is developing into a very strong and dangerous typhoon.  Haima has a small eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms.  Rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Haima are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Typhoon Haima is moving through an environment that is favorable for continued intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Haima is likely to continue to intensify and it could reach super typhoon status.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Haima toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Haima could be near the northern end of Luzon in about three days.  It could be a very powerful typhoon at that time.

Tropical Storm Sarika Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Sarika formed east of the Philippines on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Sarika was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 127.0°W which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Sarika was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Sarika is still organizing.  Most of the thunderstorms are occurring in a broad rainband that curls around the western and southern sides of the circulation.  There are a few thunderstorms in thinner rainbands in the eastern half of the circulation.  More thunderstorms are developing closer to the center of circulation.  Those thunderstorms are beginning to produce upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  As the mass is removed, the pressure decreases and the wind speeds increase.

Tropical Storm Sarika is moving through an environment that is generally favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the north of Sarika is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the top of the tropical storm.  The vertical wind shear may account for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms, but it is not strong enough to prevent Sarika from intensifying.  The vertical wind shear could slow the rate of intensification while the core of the circulation becomes better organized.  Sarika could strengthen into a typhoon with the next 24 to 36 hours.

A subtropical ridge north of Sarika is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  In a day or so Tropical Storm Sarika is forecast to turn more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sarika could be near Catanduanes Island in about 24 hours.  Sarika could be near Central Luzon in about 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Sarika is expected to intensify into a typhoon.  It could bring strong winds and very heavy rain to parts of the northern Philippines.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods and mudslides.

Typhoon Megi Strengthens As It Moves Closer to Taiwan

Typhoon Megi strengthened quickly on Saturday as it moved steadily closer to Taiwan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Megi was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 131.0°E which put it about 685 miles (1105 km) east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Megi was moving toward the west northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Megi is a large well organized typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out more than 200 miles (320 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Megi is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 36.5.

The circulation of Typhoon Megi is very symmetrical.  Numerous bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the center.  A circular eye appears to be forming at the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms near the center and in the rainbands are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out large quantities of mass in all directions.

Typhoon Megi is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Megi is likely to continue to intensify and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday.

Typhoon Megi is moving southwest of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Megi will approach Taiwan in about 48 hours.

Typhoon Megi is large and dangerous typhoon.  It is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Taiwan.