Howard Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Howard rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Howard was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 114.4°W which put it about 330 miles (530 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Howard was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of Hurricane Howard on Monday afternoon and a circular eye was at the center of circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Howard. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Hurricane Howard was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Howard. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

Hurricane Howard will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Howard will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little the wind shear. Hurricane Howard could continue to intensify rapidly during the next 12 hours. Howard will move over cooler water on Tuesday, which will cause it to start to weaken.

Hurricane Howard will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Howard toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Howard will move parallel to the coast of southern Baja California. The center of Howard will remain about 300 miles (480 km) southwest of southern Baja California.

Tropical Wave West of Africa Watched for Development

A tropical wave over the Atlantic Ocean west of Africa was being watched for development on Monday afternoon. The tropical wave was designated as Invest 97L on Monday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of the tropical wave was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 22.7°W which put it about 230 miles (350 km) south of the Cabo Verde Islands. The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 19 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A tropical wave that moved over the Atlantic Ocean west of Africa during the weekend was being monitored for possible development of a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. The tropical wave exhibited a typical structure. There was no center of circulation evident in the lower levels of the atmosphere. There were linear bands of showers and thunderstorms that were moving with the tropical wave. Thunderstorms near the axis of the wave were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical wave.

The tropical wave will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical depression during the next several days. The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from the west coast of Africa to the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge. The tropical wave will move along the southern side of a subtropical pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high is producing strong easterly winds in the lower level of the atmosphere. The strong low level winds may cause vertical wind shear in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which could inhibit the formation of a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a probability of 40% of the formation of a tropical depression during the next five days.

The subtropical high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track the tropical wave could approach the northern Leeward Islands in a few days. It could be a tropical depression or tropical storm by that time.

Tropical Storm Howard Strengthens Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Howard strengthened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 113.4°W which put it about 295 miles (475 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Howard was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Howard exhibited much more organization on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Howard. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Howard. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The strongest winds were occurring in the inner end of the rainband that wrapped around the developing eye. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Howard.

Tropical Storm Howard will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Howard will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little the wind shear. Tropical Storm Howard will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours and it is likely to strengthen to a hurricane. Howard could intensify more rapidly after the eye and eyewall are fully formed.

Tropical Storm Howard will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Howard toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Howard will move parallel to the coast of southern Baja California. The center of Howard will remain about 300 miles (480 km) southwest of southern Baja California.

Tropical Storm Howard Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Howard formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Sunday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 110.7°W which put it about 370 miles (595 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Howard was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Nine-E strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Howard. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Howard was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of Howard’s circulation. Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. A small upper level low located southwest of Howard was causing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical storm. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear was allowing drier air to flow into the southern half of Tropical Storm Howard. The vertical wind shear and the drier air were causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Storms near the center of Howard’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern side of Tropical Storm Howard. The winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Howard will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Howard will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. The small upper level low southwest of Howard’s circulation is forecast to weaken. If the upper level low weakens, then the wind shear will decrease. If the wind shear decreases, then less drier air will flow into the southern part of the circulation. Tropical Storm Howard is forecast to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Howard will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Howard toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Howard is forecast to move parallel to the coast of southern Baja California. The center of Howard will remain 300 miles (480 km) west of southern Baja California during the next 24 hours.

Frank Weakens to a Tropical Storm West of Baja California

Former Hurricane Frank weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Monday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 121.5°W which put it about 745 miles (1200 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Hurricane Frank weakened to a tropical storm on Monday morning as it moved over cooler water in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California. Tropical Storm Frank was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22˚C. Frank was unable to extract enough energy from the cooler water to maintain its intensity and the circulation weakened. The air over the cooler water was more stable and clouds were unable to rise as high into the atmosphere. The bands of thunderstorms weakened. Some drier, more stable air wrapped around the southern side of Frank’s circulation and the bands in that part of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Storm Frank was still producing a large area of tropical storm force winds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Frank.

Tropical Storm Frank will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next few days. Frank will move over water that is even colder than the water it is currently over. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Frank will weaken gradually during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Frank will move around the western part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Frank toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Frank will remain far to the west of Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Georgette stalled west-southwest of Tropical Storm Frank. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Georgette was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 130.2°W which put it about 1505 miles (2420 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Georgette was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Trases Develops over the East China Sea

Tropical Storm Trases developed over the East China Sea south of Jeju Island, South Korea on Sunday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Trases was located at latitude 30.1°N and longitude 126.3°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south of Jeju Island, South Korea. Trases was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation at the center of a large low pressure system over the East China Sea strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Trases. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Trases was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Trases’ circulation. Bands in the other part of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The air in the northern part of Tropical Storm Trases was cooler and drier. The cooler, drier air was inhibiting the formation of thunderstorms in that part of Trases.

Tropical Storm Trases will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Trases will will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge centered north of Japan. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the cooler drier air on the northern side of Trases will limit the potential for intensification. Tropical Storm Trases could intensify a little during the next 12 hours. Trases will move over cooler water on Monday and it is likely to weaken at that time.

Tropical storm Trases will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Trases toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Trases could reach Jeju Island within 12 hours. Trases could make landfall on the west coast of South Korea on Monday. Tropical Storm Trases will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of South Korea.

Hurricane Frank Spins Southwest of Baja California

Hurricane Frank continued to spin over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Frank was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 117.7°W which put it about 605 miles (975 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Hurricane Frank appeared to have concentric eyewalls for a time on Saturday afternoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall. Microwave satellite images depicted a larger outer eyewall surrounding the original eye and eyewall. The inner eyewall weakened somewhat by Saturday night, but it still was present inside the larger outer eyewall. Storms near the core of Frank’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The formation of concentric eyewalls caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Frank to increase. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Frank. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Frank will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Frank will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Frank could intensify during the next 24 hours if it completes an eyewall replacement cycle. Frank is likely to weaken early next week when it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Frank will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Frank toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Frank will move parallel to the coast of Baja California, but Frank will remain far to the west of the coast.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Georgette was located west-southwest of Hurricane Frank. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 128.5°W which put it about 1385 miles (2225 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Georgette was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Frank Strengthens to a Hurricane Southwest of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Frank strengthened to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Frank was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 114.8°W which put it about 625 miles (1010 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Hurricane Frank exhibited better organization on infrared and microwave satellite imagery on Friday night. A circular eye appeared at the center of Frank’s circulation on satellite images. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eye and a broken ring of thunderstorms encircled the eye. The strongest winds were occurring in the broken ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Frank. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Frank’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Frank will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Frank will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Frank will intensify during the next 24 hours. There is a chance Frank could rapidly intensify to a major hurricane on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Georgette was spinning about 700 miles (1130 km) to the west of Hurricane Frank. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 125.1°W which put it about 1150 miles (1850 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Georgette was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Rare Late Season Tropical Cyclone Forms over South Indian Ocean

A rare late season tropical cyclone formed over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 01S was located at latitude 10.7°S and longitude 95.0°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) west-northwest of Cocos Island. Tropical Cyclone 01S was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of Cocos Island strengthened on Thursday and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology both designated the system as a tropical cyclone. It is unusual for a tropical cyclone to form this late in the season in the southern hemisphere. It is the equivalent of a tropical cyclone forming in late January in the northern hemisphere.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 01S was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone 01S consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone 01S was under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia. The upper level ridge was producing northerly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone 01S. Winds in the other parts of the tropical cyclone were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 01S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge northwest of Australia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone 01S could strengthen a little more during the next 24 hours, but the moderate vertical wind shear will limit intensification.

Tropical Cyclone 01S will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 01S will begin to move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Storm Songda Develops East of Okinawa

Tropical Storm Songda developed east of Okinawa on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Songda was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 136.6°E which put it about 600 miles (970 km) east of Okinawa. Songda was moving toward the north-northwest at 29 m.p.h. (45 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

An area of low pressure strengthened east of Okinawa on Thursday afternoon and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Songda. Tropical Storm Songda was revolving around the northeastern part of a much larger low pressure system (sometimes called a monsoon gyre) centered northeast of the Philippines. The interaction of Songda’s circulation with the larger low pressure system was producing an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northeastern half of Tropical Storm Songda. Bands in the southwestern half of Songda consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Songda generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Songda will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Songda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. The circulation around the larger low pressure system will produce upper level winds from the southeast that will blow toward the top of Songda’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also be blowing from the southeast and so there will be less vertical wind shear. The wind shear could still be strong enough to inhibit intensification. Songda could also move into a region where the air is drier. Tropical Storm Songda could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours, but wind shear and drier air are likely to limit intensification.

The large low pressure system northeast of the Philippines will steer Tropical Storm Songda toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sondga could approach the northern Ryukyu Islands within 24 hours. Songda could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Ryukyu Islands.