Tropical Depression Three formed east of Florida on Monday. More thunderstorms developed near the center of a small low pressure system over the Northwestern Bahamas on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the system as Tropical Depression Three. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 78.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida. The depression was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.
More thunderstorms developed around the center of a small low pressure system that was embedded in the northern end of a tropical wave over the Bahamas on Monday. Most of the thunderstorms were forming in bands on the eastern side of the circulation. Based on data from satellites NHC determined that a closed circulation had formed at the surface. There were fewer thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation. Storms in the eastern half of the depression were exhibiting upper level divergence to the north and east.
Tropical Depression Three will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will be in under the western side of an upper level ridge. The ridge could enhance upper level divergence on Tuesday. The wind aloft will be relatively weak, although a thin upper trough near the east coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The surface pressure is relatively high and that could slow any intensification. A larger upper level trough will develop over the eastern U.S. on Tuesday and the trough will produce stronger southwesterly winds. Those winds will create much more shear on Wednesday.
Tropical Depression Three will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer the depression toward the northwest during the next 12 hours. Tropical Depression Three is likely to more more toward the north later on Tuesday when it reaches the western end of the ridge. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Three could be near the southeast coast of Florida in about 12 hours. The center is not currently forecast to make landfall, but the depression could bring squally weather and an increased chance for rain to the southeast coast of the U.S. during the next several days.