Category Archives: Tropical Cyclones

Information about tropical cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Bheki strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 69.7°E which put the center about 475 miles (765 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on Sunday.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Bheki’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorm were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki. Storms near the center of Bheki’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bheki was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 45.4. Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017. Bheki was bigger than Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  An upper level trough will approach Bheki from the west.  The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those upper level l winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki will weaken during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass north of Rodrigues in two days..

Tropical Storm Sara Moves Over Belize

Tropical Storm Sara moved over Belize on Sunday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 88.4°W which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Belize City, Belize.  Sara was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Caribbean coast of Guatemala.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Sara made landfall on the coast of Belize south of Belize City on Sunday morning.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Sara was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Sara’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Sara.

Tropical Storm Sara will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Sara  toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Sara will move across Belize on Sunday.  Sara will move over the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Sara will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Belize on Sunday.  Heave rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Sara will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico.

Typhoon Man-yi Hits Luzon

Powerful Typhoon Man-yi hit Luzon on Sunday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 121.3°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) north of Baler, Philippines.  Man-yi was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

The center of Typhoon Man-yi made landfall on the east coast of Luzon near Baler on Sunday morning.  Man-yi was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Typhoon Man-yi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Man-yi’s circulation.

The circulation around Typhoon Man-yi was very symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Typhoon Man-yi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Man-yi was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.6. Typhoon Man-yi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Man-yi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Man-yi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Man-yi will move across Luzon during the rest of today.

Typhoon Man-yi will also bring very strong winds and heavy rain to Luzon. Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Man-yi could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast of Luzon.  Luzon has already been hit by a series of in recent weeks. Typhoon Man-yi is capable of causing regional severe damage.  Man-yi will seriously set back efforts to recover from the previous typhoons.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 71.4°E which put the center about 610 miles (980 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.  A circular eye formed at the center of Bheki’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorm were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Storms near the center of Bheki’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bheki increased on Saturday when Bheki intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 39.3.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit Southwest Louisiana in 2005.  Bheki was a little smaller than Rita was.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move toward Rodrigues.

Tropical Storm Sara Moves Toward Belize

Tropical Storm Sara moved slowly toward Belize on Saturday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 87.0°W which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) southeast of Belize City, Belize.  Sara was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Castilla, Honduras to the border with Guatemala.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Caribbean coast of Guatemala.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City, Belize to the border with Guatemala.

After moving slowly over the Bay Islands and dropping heavy rain on Honduras, Tropical Storm Sara started to move toward Belize on Saturday.  The center of Sara’s circulation was over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea just north of the coast of Honduras.  A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite images.  Bands of shower and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Sara.  Storms near the center of Sara’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

A little less than half of the circulation of Tropical Storm Sara was still over land.  The strongest winds were occurring in the parts of Sara’s circulation that were over the Caribbean Sea.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Sara.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southern side of Sara’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Sara will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Sara will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the fact that almost half of Sara’s circulation is over land will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Sara could intensify during the next 12 hours if the the center of Sara’s circulation remains over water.

Tropical Storm Sara will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Sara slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Sara will reach Belize on Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Sara will continue to bring strong winds to the coast of Honduras and to the Bay Islands.  Sara will also continue to drop very heavy rain on Honduras.  The fact that Sara is moving so slowly will result in a prolonged period of heavy rain near the coast of Honduras. Prolonged heavy rain will very likely cause catastrophic floods and mudslides.  Tropical Storm Sara will also drop heavy rain over Belize and eastern Guatemala on Sunday.

Typhoon Man-yi Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Man-yi intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 124.0°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) east of Labo, Philippines.  Man-yi was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 921 mb.

Typhoon Man-yi intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane as it approached southeastern Luzon on Saturday.  The southwestern part of Man-yi’s eyewall passed over Catanduanes Island.

Typhoon Man-yi was very impressive on satellite images.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Man-yi generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the typhoon in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Man-yi increased when Man-yi intensified.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Typhoon Man-yi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Man-yi was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 52.6.  Typhoon Man-yi was similar in intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Man-yi was bigger than Michael was.

Typhoon Man-yi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Man-yi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Man-yi could continue to intensify during the next few hours.  However, the fact that the southwestern part of Man-yi’s eyewall passed over Catanduanes Island could halt its intensification.

Typhoon Man-yi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Man-yi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Man-yi will reach southeastern Luzon in 12 hours.  The center of Man-yi’s circulation could make landfall northeast of Baler.

Typhoon Man-yi is already bringing destructive winds to Catanduanes Island.  Typhoon Man-yi will also bring very strong winds and heavy rain to Luzon.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Man-yi could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast of Luzon. Luzon has already been hit by a series of in recent weeks.  Typhoon Man-yi is capable of causing regional catastrophic damage.  Man-yi will seriously set back efforts to recover from the previous typhoons.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Usagi was still dropping heavy rain on parts of Taiwan. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Usagi was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 120.7°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) south of Kaohsiung, Taiwan.  Usagi was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.  Continued heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in Taiwan.

Typhoon Man-Yi Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Man-yi strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moved toward the Philippines on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 127.2°E which put the center about 490 miles (790 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Man-yi was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Typhoon Man-yi intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Man-yi generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon in all directions.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Man-yi was very symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Typhoon Man-yi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Man-yi was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.9.  Typhoon Man-yi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Typhoon Man-yi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Man-yi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Man-yi is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Man-yi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Man-yi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Man-yi will reach southeastern Luzon in less than 18 hours.

Typhoon Man-yi will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to Luzon.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Man-yi could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast of Luzon.  Luzon has already been hit by a series of in recent weeks.  Typhoon Man-yi is capable of causing regional major damage.  Man-yi will seriously set back efforts to recover from the previous typhoons.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Usagi was bringing wind and rain to Taiwan.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Usagi was located at latitude 22.5°N and longitude 120.3°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) southwest of Kaohsiung, Taiwan.  Usagi was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in Taiwan.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 74.0°E which put the center about 415 miles (670 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Bheki’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  The strongest winds were occurring in the part of the rainband that wrapped around the center of Bheki.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorm were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Storms near the center of Bheki’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bheki was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Sara Drops Heavy Rain on Honduras

Tropical Storm Sara dropped heavy rain on Honduras on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 86.0°W which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Isla Guanaja,, Honduras.  Sara was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northern coast of Honduras.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Caribbean coast of Guatemala.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City, Belize to the border with Guatemala.

Tropical Storm Sara dropped heavy rain on parts of Honduras on Friday.  A weather station in La Ceiba, Honduras measured 21.89 inches (566 mm) of rain in 24 hours.  There were reports of flooding in Honduras.

The center of Tropical Storm Sara was just north of the coast of Honduras.  Bands of thunderstorms were occurring in the western and southern parts of Sara’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Sara consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Sara continued to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Sara was asymmetrical because the southern half of Sara’s circulation was over land.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Sara.  The southern side of Sara was over land, and the winds there were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Sara will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Sara will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the fact that the southern half of Sara’s circulation is over land will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Sara could intensify during the next 24 hours if the the center of Sara’s circulation stays over water.

Tropical Storm Sara will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Sara slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Sara will move along the coast of Honduras.

Tropical Storm Sara will bring strong winds to the coast of Honduras and to the Bay Islands.  Sara will also continue to drop very heavy rain on Honduras.  The fact that Sara is moving so slowly will result in a prolonged period of heavy rain near the coast of Honduras.  Prolonged heavy rain will very likely cause catastrophic floods and mudslides.  Tropical Storm Sara will also drop heavy rain over Belize and northeastern Guatemala during the weekend.

Man-yi Strengthens to a Typhoon East of the Philippines

Former Tropical Storm Man-yi strengthened to a typhoon east of the Philippines on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 131.3°E which put the center about 795 miles (1280 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Man-yi was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Man-yi strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) formed at the center of Typhoon Man-yi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Man-yi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Typhoon Man-yi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Man-yi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.   It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Man-yi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Man-yi could intensify rapidly.  Typhoon Man-yi is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Man-yi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Man-yi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Man-yi will move toward Luzon.  Man-yi could approach Luzon in 36 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Usagi moved toward Taiwan.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Typhoon Usagi was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 120.2°E which put the center about 145 miles (235 km) south of Kaohsiung, Taiwan.  Usagi was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.