Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Drops Heavy Rain on South Florida

Potential Tropical Cyclone One dropped heavy rain on South Florida during Friday night and Saturday morning. There were reports of up to 10 inches of rain falling on locations in the area around Miami. The heavy rain caused urban and street flooding in some locations. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 27.0°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coast of Florida from Bonita Beach on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast and for all of the Florida Keys. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas and the Cuban provinces of Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

Thunderstorms on the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One dropped heavy rain on parts of South Florida during Friday night and Saturday morning. A rain gauge at Biscayne Park measured 10.98 inches (27.9 cm) of rain. Media reports showed urban and street flooding in some locations.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone One remained poorly organized on Saturday morning. There was a broad area of low pressure over South Florida and the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The center of low pressure was located south-southwest of Naples, Florida. There was another circulation center located west-southwest of the Florida Keys. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring over South Florida and over the Northwestern Bahamas. The western half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One contained mainly showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in thunderstorms in the eastern half of the low pressure system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification when it moves over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Sunday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One could strengthen to a tropical storm when it moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream on Sunday.

The upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move across South Florida on Saturday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring continue to drop heavy rain on parts of South Florida and the Northwestern Bahamas during Saturday. More heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Produces Tropical Storm Force Winds

Potential Tropical Cyclone One produced tropical storm force winds over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for South Florida, all of the Florida Keys, western Cuba and the Northwestern Bahamas. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 86.8°W which put it about 420 miles (675 km) southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coast of Florida from Longboat Key on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast and for all of the Florida Keys. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas and the Cuban provinces of Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight found that Potential Tropical Cyclone One was producing winds to tropical storm force over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms around Potential Tropical Cyclone One was asymmetrical due to vertical wind shear caused by an upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the eastern half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass to the east of the system. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will approach Southwest Florida on Saturday morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to South Florida, the Florida Keys, western Cuba and the Northwestern Bahamas. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for South Florida and Western Cuba

The National Hurricane Center issued Tropical Storm Watches for South Florida and all of the Florida Keys on Thursday afternoon. The government of Cuba also issued Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba. The National Hurricane Center designated former Invest 91L as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) north-northwest of Cozumel, Mexico. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of Florida from Longboat Key on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast. A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for all of the Florida Keys. The government of Cuba issued Tropical Storm Watches for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The National Hurricane Center designated former Invest 91L as Potential Tropical Cyclone One in keeping with its policy on the issuance of watches and warnings. The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone One consisted of a broad area of low pressure. One or more smaller centers of circulation were revolving around inside the broad area of low pressure. The National Hurricane Center identified a center near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula as the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Images from satellites and radar indicated that a middle level center of circulation might be located near the western end of Cuba. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those thunderstorms were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the low pressure system. Bands in the western half of the circulation were over the Yucatan Peninsula and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will approach Southwest Florida on Saturday morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to western Cuba and South Florida later this week. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Disturbance Organizes over Northwest Caribbean Sea

A tropical disturbance, designated as Invest 91L, organized over the Northwest Caribbean Sea on Wednesday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 91L was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 87.4°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Chetumal, Mexico. Invest 91L was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A center of circulation appeared to be spinning over the Northwest Caribbean Sea just to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula on visible satellite loops on Wednesday morning. The circulation center was designated as Invest 91L. The center was inside a larger tropical disturbance over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Invest 91L. Bands in the western half of the system were over the Yucatan Peninsula and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the eastern half of Invest 91L generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical disturbance.

Invest 91L will move through an environment that will be favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next 36 hours. Invest 91L will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Invest 91L. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit the formation of a tropical depression. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Invest 91L. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. The National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 80% that a tropical depression forms from Invest 91L. A reconnaissance plane is tentatively scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday, if necessary.

The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will steer Invest 91L slowly toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Invest 91L will move toward western Cuba and South Florida. Invest 91L could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba and South Florida later this week.

Disturbance Drops Rain on Southeast U.S.

A disturbance designated as Invest 90L dropped rain over the southeast U.S. on Monday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of the disturbance was located near latitude 32.7°N and longitude 86.7°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north-northwest of Montgomery, Alabama. The disturbance was moving toward the north-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

A disturbance that formed over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend moved quickly toward the north-northeast and it was located over the southeast U.S. on Monday morning. The center of the disturbance made landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday night near Pensacola, Florida. The disturbance was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of Alabama and western Georgia on Monday morning. The disturbance will move quickly toward the north-northeast and it will merge with a cold front over the southeastern U.S. Locally heavy rain will spread over eastern Tennessee, western South Carolina, western North Carolina, eastern Kentucky, western Virginia and West Virginia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Disturbance Moves Toward Gulf Coast

A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms moved toward the Gulf Coast on Sunday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the disturbance was located near latitude 27.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The disturbance was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico was designated as Invest 90L on Sunday afternoon. Visible satellite images showed that a distinct center of circulation had formed in a disturbance over the north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. A swirl of lower clouds was clearly visible on the images. Some thunderstorms were beginning to develop in bands northwest of the center of circulation. Otherwise, there were mainly low clouds and showers in the other bands near the center. Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band on the northeastern periphery of the disturbance.

The disturbance will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The disturbance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the disturbance. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The disturbance is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if more thunderstorms form near the center of circulation. The National Hurricane Center in its 2:00 p.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook indicated the probability was 10% that the disturbance would develop into a tropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the disturbance toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Cluster of Thunderstorms Forms over Central Gulf of Mexico

A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The cluster of storms persisted on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the cluster of thunderstorms was located near latitude 26.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The cluster of thunderstorms was moving slowly toward the north-northeast. Some of the thunderstorms in the cluster were producing sustained winds of 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and it persisted on Sunday morning. There was not a well defined low level center of circulation beneath the cluster of storms. Visible satellite loops provided indications of several possible centers of rotation in the middle troposphere. Thunderstorms in the cluster generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away toward the northeast. The strongest winds were occurring in bands of thunderstorms.

The cluster of thunderstorms will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The cluster of storms will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the thunderstorms. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The cluster of thunderstorms is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if a surface center of circulation forms beneath the cluster.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the cluster of thunderstorms toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. One band of showers and thunderstorms is currently approaching that area. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Tropical Storm Wanda Speeds Northeast

Tropical Storm Wanda sped toward the northeast over the Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores on Sunday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located at latitude 38.5°N and longitude 35.5°W which put it about 460 miles (745 km) west of the Azores. Wanda was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An upper level trough and a cold front over the central Atlantic Ocean were steering Tropical Storm Wanda quickly to the northeast on Sunday morning. The upper level trough was also producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Wanda’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the shear was causing Tropical Storm Wanda to weaken. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the southeastern part of Wanda. Bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring with the thunderstorms in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Wanda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Wanda. The winds in the other parts of Wanda’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The upper level trough and the cold front will continue to steer Tropical Storm Wanda toward the northeast during the next several days. Tropical Storm Wanda will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Wanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 20˚C. The upper level trough will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The cold front is moving faster than Tropical Storm Wanda and Wanda is likely to merge with the cold front during the next 24 hours. Strong vertical wind shear and cold water will cause Wanda to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it merges with the cold front. On its anticipated track Wanda could approach Ireland as an extratropical cyclone early next week.

Tropical Storm Wanda Turns Back to the South

Tropical Storm Wanda turned back toward the south over the central Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located at latitude 40.6°N and longitude 37.8°W which put it about 605 miles (970 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Wanda was moving toward the south-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Wanda moved back toward the south on Friday morning as it continued to meander west of the Azores. The circulation around Tropical Storm Wanda remained well organized. The circulation was circular and there was a well defined center. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Wanda. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) on the western side of Tropical Storm Wanda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles on the eastern side of Wanda.

Tropical Storm Wanda will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Wanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23˚C. Even though the water is colder than in the tropics, colder air in the middle and upper troposphere will allow for enough instability for the formation of thunderstorms. The thunderstorms that form will not rise as high into the atmosphere. Tropical Storm Wanda will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Wanda could extract enough energy from the Atlantic Ocean to be able to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Wanda will move south of a high pressure system over the northern Atlantic Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will push Wanda back toward the south during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough near the east coast of the U.S. will move eastward during the next several days. The upper level trough will cause the high pressure system to weaken. When the high weakens, the upper level trough will steer Wanda toward the northeast on Saturday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Wanda could approach the western Azores on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Wanda Wanders West of the Azores

Tropical Storm Wanda continued to wander over the Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located at latitude 39.8°N and longitude 39.5°W which put it about 680 miles (1100 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Wanda was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Wanda exhibited a typical structure for a late season, high latitude tropical storm. A circular eyelike feature was present at the center of Wanda. The eyelike feature was surrounded by a ring of showers and thunderstorms. The strongest winds were occurring in the ring of showers and thunderstorms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Storm Wanda. Since Wanda was over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures, the thunderstorms were not rising as high as they would have if Tropical Storm Wanda was over warmer water in the tropics. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the eastern side of Wanda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Wanda will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Wanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22˚C. Even though the water is colder than in the tropics, colder air in the middle and upper troposphere will allow for enough instability for the formation of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that form will not rise as high into the atmosphere and they will not generate a lot of upper level divergence which could inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Wanda will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Wanda could extract enough energy from the Atlantic Ocean to be able to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Wanda will move west of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high will steer Wanda toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. A second high pressure system will move north of Tropical Storm Wanda on Friday. The second high will push Wanda back toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Wanda could approach the western Azores during the weekend.