Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Major Hurricane Eta Makes Landfall in Nicaragua

Major Hurricane Eta made landfall on the coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Eta was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 83.5°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Eta was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Punta Patuca, Honduras.

Hurricane Eta moved very slowly onto the coast of Nicaragua just to south of Puerto Cabezas on Tuesday afternoon. Concentric eyewalls developed around the center of Eta before it made landfall. The start of an eyewall replacement cycle caused the intensity of Hurricane Eta to remain relatively steady as it approached the coast of Nicaragua. An environment favorable for strong hurricanes allowed Eta to continue to be a major hurricane at the time of landfall.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hurricane Eta at the time it made landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Eta was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.7.

Hurricane Eta was capable of causing significant wind damage. over northeastern Nicaragua. The northern eyewall which contained the strongest winds passed over Puerto Cabezas. Eta could also cause a storm surge of 15 to 18 feet (5 to 6 meters) along the coast near Puerto Cabezas. Hurricane Eta will weaken as it moves slowly inland over northern Nicaragua and the wind speeds will decrease quickly. Eta will drop very heavy rain over northern Nicaragua and Honduras. Some locations could receive 20 to 30 inches (50 to 75 cm). The heavy rain could cause catastrophic flash floods in parts of Nicaragua and Honduras.

Eta will move more toward the northwest on Wednesday and the circulation could emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. There is a chance that Eta could strengthen back to a tropical storm if the circulation moves back over water. Eta could bring gusty winds and rain to the Florida Keys by Sunday.

Hurricane Eta Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Eta rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua on Monday afternoon. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Hurricane Eta was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 82.0°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) east of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Eta was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Punta Patuca, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Punta Patuca, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla, Honduras.

Hurricane Eta continued to intensify rapidly on Monday afternoon. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) developed at the center of Hurricane Eta. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms near the center of Eta generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly, which contributed to rapid intensification. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Eta.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Eta was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.7. Hurricane Eta was capable of causing major damage.

Hurricane Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 9 hours. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Eta is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours and it could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Eta will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will steer Eta toward the west during the next 24 to 36 hours. On its anticipated path Hurricane Eta could approach the coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday morning. Eta will be a major hurricane when it reaches Nicaragua. The steering currents will weaken when Hurricane Eta nears Nicaragua. Eta will move slowly when that happens and it could drop very heavy rain over Nicaragua and Honduras. Catastrophic flash floods could occur in that region.

Hurricane Eta Rapidly Intensifies

Hurricane Storm Eta rapidly intensified over the Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua on Monday afternoon. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Hurricane Eta was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 81.1°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) east of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Eta was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Punta Patuca, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Punta Patuca, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla, Honduras.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Eta was intensifying rapidly on Monday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) developed at the center of Hurricane Eta. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms near the center of Eta generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly , which contributed to rapid intensification. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Eta. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

Hurricane Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Eta is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours and it could strengthen into a major hurricane.

Hurricane Eta will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will steer Eta toward the west during the next 24 to 48 hours. On its anticipated path Tropical Storm Eta could approach the coast of Nicaragua on Monday night. Eta could be a major hurricane when it reaches Nicaragua. The steering currents will weaken when Eta nears Nicaragua. Eta will move slowly when that happens and it could drop very heavy rain over Nicaragua and Honduras. Catastrophic flash floods could occur in that region.

Tropical Storm Eta Strengthens East of Nicaragua

Tropical Storm Eta strengthened over the Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua on Sunday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 78.9°W which put it about 285 miles (460 km) east of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Eta was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Punta Patuca, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Punta Patuca, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla, Honduras.

A NOAA aircraft found that Tropical Storm Eta had strengthened on Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorms near the center of Eta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which contributed to an increase in the wind speed. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Eta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Eta could intensify into a hurricane within 12 hours. Eta could intensify rapidly once an inner core if fully developed. There is a chance that Eta could strengthen into a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Eta will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will steer Eta toward the west during the next couple of days. On its anticipated path Tropical Storm Eta could approach the coast of Nicaragua on Monday night. Eta could be a major hurricane when it reaches Nicaragua. The steering currents will weaken when Eta nears Nicaragua. Eta will move slowly when that happens and it could drop very heavy rain over Nicaragua and Honduras. Catastrophic flash floods could occur in that region.

TD 29 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Eta, Hurricane Watches for Nicaragua and Honduras

Former Tropical Depression Twentynine strengthened into Tropical Storm Eta over the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday night and Hurricane Watches were issued for Nicaragua and Honduras. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 74.2°W which put it about 600 miles (965 km) east of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Eta was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua to Punta Patuca, Honduras.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Twentynine exhibited greater organization on Saturday night and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Eta. The inner part of a rainband wrapped partly around the eastern side of the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) on the northern side of Tropical Storm Eta. The winds in the southern half of Eta were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Eta could intensify into a hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Eta will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will steer Eta toward the west during the next couple of days. On its anticipated path Tropical Storm Eta could approach Nicaragua and Honduras in 48 hours. Eta could be a hurricane when it gets there.

Tropical Depression 29 Forms over the Central Caribbean Sea

Tropical Depression Twentynine formed over the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Twentynine was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 73.2°W which put it about 315 miles (510 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The depression was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Visible satellite images strongly suggested that a low level center of circulation had developed in an area of thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twentynine. The circulation around the depression exhibited more organization. Thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around the center. Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twentynine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The depression could intensify into a tropical storm during the next 12 hours. It could strengthen into a hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Depression Twentynine will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will steer the depression toward the west during the next couple of days. On its anticipated path the depression could approach Nicaragua and Honduras in about 48 hours. It could be a hurricane when it gets there.

Hurricane Zeta Hits New Orleans

Hurricane Zeta hit New Orleans, Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi on Wednesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Zeta was located at latitude 31.5°N and longitude 88.7°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northeast of Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Zeta was moving toward the northeast at 31 m.p.h. (50 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Hurricane Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line in Florida.

Hurricane Zeta made landfall on the coast of Louisiana near Grand Isle late on Wednesday afternoon. The eye of Zeta passed over New Orleans before moving northeast into southern Mississippi. The strongest winds in Hurricane Zeta occurred in the eastern half of the circulation. A NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) station at Shell Beach Louisiana (SHBL1) reported a sustained wind speed of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and a wind gust of 101 m.p.h. (163 km/h). A NOAA NOS station at the Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi (WYCM6) reported a wind speed of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and a wind gust of 103 m.p.h. (167 km/h). The National Weather Service (NWS) office at the airport in New Orleans (KMSY) reported a Peak Wind of 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h). A station in Biloxi, Mississippi (KBIX) reported a sustained wind speed of 64 m.p.h. (104 km/h) and a wind gust of 87 m.p.h. (141 km/h). A station in Mobile, Alabama (KMOB) reported a sustained wind speed of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 91 m.p.h. (146 km/h).

There were reports of significant storm surges along the coast of Mississippi. There were also reports of widespread power outages in southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

Hurricane Zeta will move rapidly northeastward across Alabama during the night. The center of Zeta will be over northwestern Georgia by Thursday morning. Hurricane Zeta will weaken to a tropical storm during the night, but it will be capable of causing additional power outages. Zeta will also drop locally heavy rain. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for the area from Alabama to western Virginia. Zeta will eventually merge with a cold front and make a transition to an extratropical cyclone. The extratropical cyclone could contribute to snow that will fall over the northeastern U.S.

Hurricane Zeta Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Zeta strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it neared southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Zeta was located at latitude 27.9°N and longitude 91.1°W which put it about 155 miles (255 km) south-southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana. Zeta was moving toward the north-northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line in Florida.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane found that Hurricane Zeta was continuing to intensify on Wednesday. There was a a circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) at the center of Zeta. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Hurricane Zeta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force were occurring mainly in the eastern side of Zeta. Winds in the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than hurricane force.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the eastern side of Hurricane Zeta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Zeta was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.2. Hurricane Zeta was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Zeta could strengthen a little more before it makes landfall. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C. An upper level trough over the south central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could start to weaken just before it makes landfall. However, Zeta will be moving fairly quickly and it may not weaken much before it reaches the Gulf Coast.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Zeta toward the north-northeast during the next few hours. Zeta is likely to make landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana. The center of Hurricane Zeta will pass very close to New Orleans and that city could experience hurricane force winds. The strongest winds will be on the eastern side of Zeta, which could also bring hurricane force winds to the coast of Mississippi. Places west of Grand Isle will experience weaker winds. Winds blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 8 to 12 feet (2.5 to 4 meters) along the coast of Mississippi.

Hurricane Zeta will weaken when it moves inland. Zeta will be strong enough to cause widespread power outages in southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and central and southern Alabama. Zeta will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches extend from southeastern Louisiana to northern Georgia, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Zeta Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

Zeta strengthened back to a hurricane on Tuesday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 91.7°W which put it about 295 miles (470 km) south-southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana. Zeta was moving toward the north at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County line in Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana.

After weakening to a tropical storm when it passed over the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday morning, Zeta intensified back to a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) developed at the center of the eye. The ring of thunderstorms around the eye strengthened during the night and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Hurricane Zeta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force were occurring mainly in the eastern side of Zeta. Winds in the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than hurricane force.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the eastern side of Hurricane Zeta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Zeta was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.6. Hurricane Zeta was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C when it reaches the Gulf.  It will be under the western part of an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Zeta is likely to intensify further during the next few hours and it could strengthen to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. An upper level trough over the south central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta later today. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could weaken when it moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico. However, Zeta will be moving more quickly at that time and it may not weaken much before it reaches the Gulf Coast.

The upper level trough is likely to steer Hurricane Zeta toward the northeast as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Zeta could approach the coast of southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane Zeta is likely to make landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana. The center of Hurricane Zeta will pass very close to New Orleans and that city could experience hurricane force winds. The strongest winds will be on the eastern side of Zeta, which could also bring hurricane force winds to the coast of Mississippi. Places west of Grand Isle will experience weaker winds. Winds blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 8 to 12 feet (2.5 to 4 meters) along the coast of Mississippi.

Hurricane Zeta will weaken when it moves inland. Zeta will be strong enough to cause widespread power outages in southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and central and southern Alabama. Zeta will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches extend from southeastern Louisiana to northern Georgia, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Zeta Brings Hurricane Force Winds to Yucatan, Warnings Issued for Gulf Coast

Zeta brought hurricane force winds to part of the Yucatan Peninsula early on Tuesday and warnings were issued for the Gulf Coast. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 88.4°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) east-southeast of Progreso, Mexico. Zeta was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. THe Hurricane Warning includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Allen to Progreso was changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Hurricane Zeta made landfall on the northeastern part of the Yucatan Penisula just north of Tulum, Mexico on Monday night. Weather stations in Playa del Carmen and on Cozumel reported sustained wind speeds of hurricane force. Zeta dropped heavy rain over parts of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Zeta weakened to a tropical storm when it moved across the northern Yucatan. The center of Tropical Storm Zeta was just about to emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning. The circulation around Zeta remained intact. Thunderstorms were occurring around the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Zeta. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Wins to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Zeta.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few hours. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C when it reaches the Gulf.  It will be under the western part of an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Zeta is likely to intensify back into a hurricane on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the southwestern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta on Wednesday. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could weaken when it moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Tuesday. Zeta will move more toward the north on Wednesday when it moves around the western end of the ridge. The upper level trough is likely to steer Zeta toward the northeast as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Zeta could approach the coast of southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. Zeta is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast