Category Archives: Eastern and Central Pacific

TCs between Mexico and Hawaii

Tropical Storm Kay Prompts Watch for Southern Baja California

A potential risk posed by Tropical Storm Kay prompted the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of southern Baja California on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 106.4°W which put it about 260 miles (420 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Kay was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Loreto to Puerto San Andresito.

Tropical Storm Kay strengthened on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Kay’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the developing core of Tropical Storm Kay. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the northern side of Kay. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Kay will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Kay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Kay will intensify during the next 36 hours. Kay could strengthen to a hurricane within 24 hours. It could intensify more rapidly after an eye and an eyewall form.

Tropical Storm Kay will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Kay toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kay will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico. Kay could approach Baja California on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Kay Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Kay formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 102.5°W which put it about 225 miles (365 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Kay was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

An area of low pressure over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kay. There was a large counterclockwise circulation revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Kay. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Kay’s circulation, but there were not many thunderstorms close to the center. The strongest rainbands were in the southern half of Tropical Storm Kay. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Kay. The winds in the other parts of Kay’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Kay will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Kay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Kay will intensify during the next 36 hours, but the rate of intensification could be slow because of the large size of the circulation. The rate of intensification could speed up when more thunderstorms form near the center of Kay and an inner core develops. Tropical Storm Kay could strengthen to a hurricane within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Kay will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Kay toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kay will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico. Kay could move more toward the north-northwest when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system on Tuesday. Kay could approach Baja California on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Javier moved farther away from Baja California. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Javier was located at latitude 27.2°N and longitude 121.0°W which put it about 380 miles (610 km) west of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Javier was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Javier Moves West of Baja California

Tropical Storm Javier moved west of Baja California on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 116.1°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Javier was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Javier started to weaken on Saturday afternoon when it moved over colder water west of Baja California. The center of Javier moved over water where over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25˚C. Most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Javier weakened when it moved over colder water. The bands revolving around the center of Javier’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Javier. Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Javier will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next few days. Javier will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though there will be little vertical wind shear, Tropical Storm Javier will be unable to extract enough energy for the ocean to intensify. Javier is likely to weaken gradually during the next few days.

Since most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Javier weakened, Javier will be steered by the winds lower in the atmosphere. Javier will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Javier toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Javier will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Javier

Former Tropical Depression Eleven-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Javier over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Thursday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 111.7°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Javier was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Thunderstorms became more concentrated near the center of former Tropical Depression Eleven-E on Thursday night and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Javier. The circulation around Tropical Storm Javier was still large. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Javier’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Javier.

Tropical Storm Javier will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Javier is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours. The large circulation around Javier could prevent it from intensifying quickly.

Tropical Storm Javier will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Javier toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Javier will move parallel to the southwest coast of Baja California.

Tropical Depression Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Depression Eleven-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 110.5°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Eleven-E. The circulation around Tropical Depression Eleven-E was large. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the tropical depression. Thunderstorms that develop near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. The large circulation around the tropical depression could prevent it from intensifying quickly.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move parallel to the southwest coast of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Ivette Develops Unexpectedly

Tropical Storm Ivette developed unexpectedly over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ivette was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 113.9°W which put it about 445 miles (710 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Ivette was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Ten-E strengthened unexpectedly on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Ivette. An upper level ridge west of Mexico had been producing moderate easterly winds that were blowing across the top of former Tropical Depression Ten-E’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was blowing the tops off of any thunderstorms that tried to form in the tropical depression. The strengthen of the upper level winds weakened for a few hours on Monday, which caused the vertical wind shear to decrease. New thunderstorms formed in bands in the western half of former Tropical Depression Ten-E. Downdrafts in those thunderstorms transported stronger winds to the surface and the depression strengthened to Tropical Storm Ivette. Tropical storm force were occurring up to 90 miles (145 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Ivette’s circulation. The winds in the other quadrants were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ivette will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Ivette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge west of Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Ivette is likely to weaken during the next 48 hours, although some fluctuations in intensity could occur if the strength of the upper level winds varies.

Tropical Storm Ivette will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ivette slowly toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ivette will move a little farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Depression Ten-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 111.5°W which put it about 355 miles (570 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California exhibited more organization on Saturday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Ten-E. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Ten-E was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical depression. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Depression Ten-E was moving under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over northern Mexico. The upper level ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was the primary reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Depression Ten-E will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge over northern Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Depression Ten-E could strengthen to a tropical storm if the upper level winds weaken for a few hours. The tropical depression will move over cooler water on Monday, which will make the environment unfavorable for intensification.

Tropical Depression Ten-E will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tropical Depression Ten-E toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Ten-E will move farther away from Baja California.

Howard Weakens Back to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Howard weakened back to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Tuesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 118.4°W which put it about 540 miles (870 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California. Howard was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Former Hurricane Howard moved over cooler water west of Baja California on Tuesday evening and weakened back to a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Howard was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. Howard was unable to extract as much energy from the cooler water and thunderstorms around the tropical storm diminished. The strongest remaining thunderstorms were in the remnants of the northern eyewall. The rest of the former eyewall and the rainbands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Howard consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Howard.

Tropical Storm Howard will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next several days. Howard will continue to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little the wind shear. The cooler water will cause Tropical Storm Howard to continue to weaken even though there will be little vertical wind shear.

Hurricane Howard will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Howard toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Howard will move farther way from Baja California.

Howard Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Howard rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Howard was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 114.4°W which put it about 330 miles (530 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Howard was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of Hurricane Howard on Monday afternoon and a circular eye was at the center of circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Howard. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Hurricane Howard was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Howard. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

Hurricane Howard will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Howard will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little the wind shear. Hurricane Howard could continue to intensify rapidly during the next 12 hours. Howard will move over cooler water on Tuesday, which will cause it to start to weaken.

Hurricane Howard will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Howard toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Howard will move parallel to the coast of southern Baja California. The center of Howard will remain about 300 miles (480 km) southwest of southern Baja California.

Tropical Storm Howard Strengthens Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Howard strengthened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 113.4°W which put it about 295 miles (475 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Howard was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Howard exhibited much more organization on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Howard. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Howard. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The strongest winds were occurring in the inner end of the rainband that wrapped around the developing eye. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Howard.

Tropical Storm Howard will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Howard will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little the wind shear. Tropical Storm Howard will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours and it is likely to strengthen to a hurricane. Howard could intensify more rapidly after the eye and eyewall are fully formed.

Tropical Storm Howard will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Howard toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Howard will move parallel to the coast of southern Baja California. The center of Howard will remain about 300 miles (480 km) southwest of southern Baja California.