Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Anika Develops over Timor Sea

Tropical Cyclone Anika developed over the Timor Sea west of Darwin, Australia on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anika was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 127.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north-northeast of Kalumburu, Australia. Anika was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Dundee Beach to Mitchell Plateau. The Warning included Wadeye, Wyndham and Kalumburu. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mitchell Plateau to Cockatoo Island. A Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Dundee Beach to Point Stuart. The Watch included Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Timor Sea strengthened on Friday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Anika. More thunderstorms developed around the center of Anika’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Anika. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Anika.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anika will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anika will strengthen during the next 24 hours and it could intensify rapidly. There is a chance that Anika could intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will be in a region where the steering winds are weak. A high pressure system over Australia will steer Anika slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Anika will approach the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu in 24 hours. Anika could become nearly stationary when it approaches the coast. Tropical Cyclone Anika will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for the East Kimberly Rivers, North Kimberly Rivers and West Kimberly Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 92.8°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Vernon was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Friday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) formed at the center of Vernon’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Vernon. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Vernon was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Vernon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Vernon will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Vernon toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon Forms Southwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Vernon formed over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 95.3°E which put it about 140 miles (220 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Vernon was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island strengthened on Thursday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Vernon. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Vernon’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Vernon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Vernon will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Vernon toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Emnati brought wind and rain to southern Madagascar on Wednesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 24.0°S and longitude 45.8°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east of Bekily, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the southwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Wednesday morning. Emnati moved quickly toward the southwest after the center made landfall near Vohipeno. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati remained well organized as it gradually weakened over Madagascar. A well defined center of circulation was still evident on satellite images. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the southern half of Emnati’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will continue to move quickly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. The center of Emnati will move southwest of Madagascar later today. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain will continue over southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Weather conditions will improve when Tropical Cyclone Emnati moves away from Madagascar on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati hits Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Emanti hit the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 22.5°S and longitude 48.0°E which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south of Vohipeno, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar near Vohipeno on Tuesday night. Emnati was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it made landfall. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation, The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Emnati was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati never fully completed an eyewall replacement cycle before it hit the east coast of Madagascar. The circulation around the small inner eye persisted. The strongest thunderstorms and heaviest rains were occurring in the southern half of Emnati’s circulation. Bands in the northeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Emnati consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Northwesterly winds were sinking down the eastern slopes mountains in the northern part of Emnati’s circulation. The sinking, drier air was being pulled into the northeastern part of the tropical cyclone and it was inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in that region.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move around the northwestern part of a surface high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emanti toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated path Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move across southeastern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Emnati will weaken gradually as the center moves farther inland. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southeastern Madagascar. The heaviest rain will fall on the eastern slopes of mountains where easterly winds will push the air up the slopes. Flash floods are likely to occur in those areas. There could also be widespread electrical outages. Tropical Cyclone Emnati is the fourth tropical cyclone to hit Madagascar since the start of the tropical cyclone season in the Southwest Indian Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Nears Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Emnati neared the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 49.9°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) northeast of Manajary, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati weakened as it neared the east coast of Madagascar. A long eyewall replacement cycle was disrupting the inner core of Emnati’s circulation. The inner eyewall was dissipating slowly. The strongest winds were occurring in the larger outer eyewall. A break in the ring of thunderstorms in the northwest side of the outer eyewall was evident on microwave satellite imagery. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the outer eyewall. Storms near the center of Emnati generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The long eyewall replacement cycle produced a large circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.6. Tropical Cyclone Emnati was capable of causing widespread serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, the long eyewall replace cycle could cause Emnati to weaken while the inner eyewall fully dissipates. In addition, northwesterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Emanti could cause drier air to sink down the eastern side of mountains in Madagascar. The drier air could weaken thunderstorms in the northern part of Emnati’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Emanti will reach the east coast of Madagascar in 12 hours. The center of Emnati could make landfall between Nosy Varika and Farafangana. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be capable of causing widespread serious damage to southern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Widespread electrical outages are likely to occur. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Moves Toward Madgascar

Tropical Cyclone Emnati moved toward Madagascar on Monday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 53.1°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was surrounded by concentric eyewalls on Monday morning. The original, inner eyewall surrounded an eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km). A larger, outer eyewall with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) surrounded the inner eye and eyewall. The inner eyewall was slowly weakening and the low level convergence was becoming more concentrated at the outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. Storms around the large core of Emnati generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati increased after the concentric eyewalls formed. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 26.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.9. Emnanti was similar in intensity and size to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit southwest Louisiana in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, the current eyewall replace cycle could cause Emnati to weaken while the inner eyewall dissipates. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could eventually strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti could reach the southeast coast of Madagascar in 36 hours. The center of Emnati could make landfall between Mananjary and Vangaindrano. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Emnati will be capable of causing widespread major damage to southern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Madagascar on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 55.5°E which put it about 220 miles (355 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Madagascar on Sunday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Microwave satellite images showed that the inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the existing eye and eyewall. Concentric eyewalls could be forming and an eyewall replacement cycle could be starting.

The potential start of an eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati to increase. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Emnati’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 22.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.8. Tropical Cyclone Emnati was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. The winds in the lower atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, if an eyewall replace cycle occurs Emnati will weaken when the current eyewall dissipates. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could eventually strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move away from La Reunion on Sunday. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in 48 hours. Emnati could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Emnati passed north of Mauritius on Saturday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 57.7°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati continued to have the intensity of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday. A small eye was evident on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 36 hours. Emanti could eventually strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next three days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move away from Mauritius on Saturday. Emnati will pass north of La Reunion on Sunday. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northeast of Mauritius on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 60.9°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Mauritius on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were blowing in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 36 hours. Emnati could intensify more rapidly now that an inner core with an eye and an eyewall have formed. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Mauritius in 30 hours. Emnati could pass north of La Reunion in 60 hours. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in four days.