Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Intensifies Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Emnati intensified northeast of Mauritius on Thursday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 62.6°E which put it about 595 miles (960 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened on Thursday. Microwave satellite imagery indicated that a circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was forming at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms. The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the developing core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Emnati.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Emnati could intensify more rapidly once the inner core with an eye and a complete eyewall forms.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Mauritius in 36 hours. Emnati could pass north of La Reunion in 72 hours. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach Madagascar in less than five days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Forms Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Emnati formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues on Wednesday. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 67.2°E which put it about 455 miles (735 km) northeast of Rodrigues. Emnati was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues strengthened on Wednesday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Emnati. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati appeared to be organizing quickly on Wednesday evening. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Emnati’s circulation and microwave satellite images suggested that a small eye could be forming at the center. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the eastern half of Emnati consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Emnati could intensify more rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Emnati toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Rodrigues in 36 hours. Emnati could pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion during the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could hit Madagascar next week.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako Hits Northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dumako hit northern Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumako was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 49.9°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Ivongo, Madagascar. Dumako was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako hit the coast of northern Madagascar between Mananara and Ivongo on Tuesday morning. Dumako was the equivalent of a tropical storm when it hit Madagascar. The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumako.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in mountainous regions. Dumako will move west across northern Madagascar during the next 36 hours. Tropical Cyclone Dumako will weaken steadily as it moves over the mountains in Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako Moves Toward Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dumako moved toward Madagascar on Monday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumako was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 52.5°E which put it about 185 miles (295 km) east of Mananara, Madagascar. Dumako was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako moved toward northern Madagascar on Monday afternoon. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Dumako’s circulation during the afternoon after most of the previous thunderstorms had weakened on Monday morning. Tropical Cyclone Dumako weakened a little before the new thunderstorms developed. The new thunderstorms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Dumako was a small tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Dumako will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. There is drier air to the north and west of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. The drier air could inhibit the formation of more thunderstorms around Dumako’s circulation. However, there appears to be moister air near the center of center of circulation and Tropical Cyclone Dumako could strengthen a little during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumako will reach the coast of northern Madagascar near Mananara in 18 hours. Dumako is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches northern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Dumako will bring gusty wins and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar on Tuesday. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Dumako is likely to weaken rapidly after the center moves over Madagascar because the circulation is so small.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako Passes North of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Dumako passed north of La Reunion on Monday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dunako was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 54.6°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north of St. Denis, La Reunion. Dumako was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Small Tropical Cyclone Dumako passed north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday morning as it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean. After Dumako intensified on Sunday, it appeared to be weakening on Monday morning. Drier air seemed to be causing thunderstorms to weaken. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the eastern side of Dumako’s circulation. Bands in other parts of Tropical Cyclone Dumako consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The thunderstorms in the eastern side of Dumako were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the enter of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dumako will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. There is drier air to the north and west of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. The drier air could continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms around Dumako’s circulation. If drier air inhibits the formation of additional thunderstorms, then Tropical Cyclone Dumako is likely to weaken gradually during the next during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumako 12S will reach the coast of northern Madagascar near Mananara in a little over 24 hours. Dumako is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches northern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Dumako will bring gusty wins and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Forms North-Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 12S formed north-northeast of Mauritius on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 12S was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 60.5°E which put it about 430 miles (695 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 12S formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean early on Sunday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 12S was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring southeast of the center of circulation. Bands in other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 12S was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the southeastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone. The winds in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone 12S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 12S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone 12S will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak bear the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. There is drier air to the north of Tropical Cyclone 12S. Drier air could inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the northern part of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. If drier air inhibits the formation of thunderstorms, then it could prevent intensification of Tropical Cyclone 12S. Since the circulation around Tropical Cyclone 12S is small, changes in the environment could have big effects on the circulation. Tropical Cyclone 12S could get a little stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 12S will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 12S will pass north of Mauritius in 24 hours. The small size of the circulation means that the tropical cyclone should have little effect on Mauritius. Tropical Cyclone 12S could be north of La Reunion in 36 hours. The tropical cyclone could reach northern Madagascar in less than three days.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai over Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsiria was located over southwest Madagascar on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 23.2°S and longitude 43.9°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Toliara, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was just northeast of Toliara, Madagascar on Sunday morning. Batsirai was still dropping locally heavy rain over parts of southwestern Madagascar. The heaviest rain was falling on the western sides of mountains where the wind was blowing the air up the slopes. The threat for flash floods continued. The inner core of Batsirai’s circulation was disrupted when it moved over the mountains on Madagascar. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. The strongest wind were occurring in the parts of Batsirai’s circulation that were over water. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Batsirai.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the southwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move over the Mozambique Channel in a few hours. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southwestern Madagascar on Sunday. Even though Batsirai has weakened, the potential for flash floods still exists. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move toward the south on Monday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. Batsirai could strengthen after the center moves back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai brought wind and rain to Madagascar on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 21.5°S and longitude 46.3°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of Beroroha, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar near Manajary on Saturday. Batsirai was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it made landfall. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moved toward the west-southwest after it made landfall. The center of Batsirai passed just to the north of Fianarantsoa. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai weakened steadily after it moved over Madagascar, but it was still the equivalent of a strong tropical storm on Saturday night. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move across southwestern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to central and southern Madagascar on Sunday. Even though Batsirai has weakened, the potential for flash floods remains high. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could move over the Mozambique Channel north of Toliara in 18 hours. Batsirai could strengthen after the center moves back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai’s Wind and Rain Reach Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai’s wind and rain reached Madagascar on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 21.0°S and longitude 48.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Mananjary, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Bands in the western side of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai brought wind and rain to east central Madagascar on Saturday morning. The center of Batsirai was just east of the coast of Madagascar and the strongest winds were still offshore. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was the equivalent of a major hurricane. An eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was present at the center of Batsirai. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Batsirai’s circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was large. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (360 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.0. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will hit the east coast of Madagascar between Nosy Varika and Mananjary during the next 3 hours. Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Widespread losses of electricity are possible. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast between Nosy Varika and Manajary. The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could pass close to Fianarantsoa. Batsirai will weaken when it moves inland, but it will continue to drop locally heavy rain over central Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Nears Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai neared the east coast of Madagascar on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 50.8°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Mahanoro, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was the equivalent of a major hurricane as it neared the east coast of Madagascar on Friday night. A circular eye was at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms in the northern part of the eyewall weakened in recent hours. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Batsirai was a large tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (360 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.4.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The northwestern part of the circulation around Batsirai could pull drier air sinking down the eastern slopes of mountains in Madagascar into the tropical cyclone. Drier air could cause Tropical Cyclone Batsirai to weaken a little before it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will hit the east coast of Madagascar between Mahanoro and Nosy Varika in 12 hours. Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast between Mahanoro and Nosy Varika. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will weaken when it moves inland, but it will continue to drop locally heavy rain over central Madagascar.