Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Weakens South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Dailo weakened south of Diego Garcia on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 74.0°E which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Northerly winds carried dry air from Asia across the Indian Ocean and some of the dry air was pulled into the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo. The dry air mixed with the moister air in the eyewall and rainbands, which caused the thunderstorms in those regions to weaken. When the thunderstorms weakened, downdrafts that transported stronger winds to the surface also weakened. The eye and eyewall at the center of circulation dissipated. Bands in the northern half of Danilo consisted of showers and lower clouds. Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the flow of drier air diminishes, then Tropical Cyclone Danilo could strengthen again. However, if the flow of drier air remains strong, then intensification is unlikely. Slight intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Danilo toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo could be north of Rodrigues in 60 hours. Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in about four days.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Danilo intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 76.4°E which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo intensified south of Diego Garcia on Monday night. After the circulation around Danilo fully absorbed the circulation of a tropical depression, the tropical cyclone began intensify again. An eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was evident on microwave satellite images. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Danilo. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Danilo is very likely to intensify during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Danilo toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo could be northeast of Rodrigues in four days. Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Imogen Makes Landfall in Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Imogen made landfall in Queensland on Sunday. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Imogen was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 140.9°E which put it about 5 miles (10 km) north of Karumba, Australia. Imogen was moving toward the southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The tropical low over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria intensified into Tropical Cyclone Imogen before it made landfall in Queensland on Sunday. The center of Tropical Cyclone Imogen made landfall on the southwest coast of Queensland just to the north of Karumba. Imogen was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of Queensland from Burketown to Kowanyama. The Warning extended inland to Croydon.

A high pressure system north of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Imogen toward the east southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Imogen could be near Croydon in about 12 hours. Imogen will move more slowly on Monday when the steering currents will be weaker. Tropical Cyclone Imogen could be north of Georgetown in about 36 hours. The circulation around Imogen will weaken as it moves farther inland. Imogen will drop heavy rain over parts of the southern Cape York Peninsula. Heavy rain could cause flash floods along some rivers and streams. Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect for parts of northern Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Swirls South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Danilo swirled south of Diego Garcia on Saturday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 11.5°S and longitude 72.9°E which put it about 285 miles (455 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the east-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo was beginning to interact with the circulation around a tropical depression southeast of Danilo. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 76.8°E which put it about 570 miles (970 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. The depression was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo strengthened on Saturday even though it was starting to interact with the tropical depression. The strongest thunderstorms in Danilo were occurring in bands north and west of the center. Bands south and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, and the shear will inhibit intensification. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo will interact with the circulation around the tropical depression to its southeast. The interaction of the two circulations will temporarily disrupt the circulation on the eastern side of Danilo and that could prevent intensification during the next 48 hours. Eventually, the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Danilo will absorb the circulation of the tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo and the tropical depression will make a slow clockwise revolution while two circulations merge. Danilo will move toward the south-southeast during the next day or two. After Danilo absorbs the tropical depression, a high pressure system north of the tropical cyclone will steer Danilo toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo will gradually move farther away from Diego Garcia. Danilo could be northeast of Rodrigues in five days.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Forms South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Danilo formed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 11.6°S and longitude 72.3°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system strengthened on Friday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Danilo. There was a well defined low level center of circulation evident on satellite images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Danilo. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and west of the center. Bands north and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

There was also a tropical depression located east-southeast of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 81.4°E which put it about 770 miles (1240 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. The depression was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. However, the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo will interact with the circulation around the tropical depression to its east-southeast. The interaction of the two circulations will disrupt the circulation on the eastern side of Danilo and that could prevent intensification during the next several days. Eventually,the two circulations are forecast to merge next week.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will remain nearly stationary during the next day or so. Danilo could move slowly toward the southeast when the the tropical depression approaches it during the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo is forecast to remain south of Diego Garcia. Danilo could eventually move west toward Rodrigues next week.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Makes Landfall in Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Chalane made landfall in Mozambique on Tuesday night. At 9:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 35.3°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northeast of Beira, Mozambique. Chalane was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane made landfall just to the north of Beira, Mozambique on Tuesday night. Chalane intensified until it made landfall. Tropical Cyclone Chalane was almost the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall. An elliptical eye was at the center of Chalane. The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Chalane.

Tropical Storm Chalane will move north of a high pressure system over southern Africa and the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Chalane toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move across central Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Chalane will weaken steadily as it moves farther inland. It will drop heavy rain over parts of central Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Strengthens East of Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Chalane strengthened east of Mozambique on Tuesday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 19.6°S and longitude 39.3°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) east of Beira, Mozambique. Chalane was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chalane was much more symmetrical and it exhibited better organization on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and satellite images indicated that an eye could be forming at the center of Chalane. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Chalane was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Chalane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The winds near the axis of the ridge are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Chalane will intensify today and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Chalane toward the west during the next two days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chalane will make landfall near Beira, Mozambique in 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Chalane could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique. Chalane will bring strong winds to the portion of the coast near Beira. It could cause a storm surge at the coast of up to 7 feet (2 meters). Tropical Cyclone Chalane will drop heavy rain over parts of central Mozambique and flash floods could occur.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Emerges over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Chalane emerged over the Mozambique Channel on Monday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 43.3°E which put it about 270 miles (440 km) east-northeast of Europa Island. Chalane was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

After crossing central Madagascar during the weekend, Tropical Cyclone Chalane emerged over the Mozambique Channel on Monday. The circulation around Chalane remained relatively intact despite crossing mountains on Madagascar. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of circulation. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Chalane. The winds in the northern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Chalane will move over water in the Mozambique Channel where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The winds near the axis of the ridge are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Chalane will intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Chalane toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chalane will pass near Europa Island in 18 hours. Chalane could approach the central coast of Mozambique in 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone Chalane could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Makes Landfall in Madgascaar

The center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane made landfall on the coast of Madagascar on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 49.2°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northwest of Toamasina, Madagascar. Chalane was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane made landfall on the coast of northeast Madagascar between Fenoarivo and Toamasina on Saturday. The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles from the center of the tropical cyclone. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the western and southern parts of Chalane.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move west-southwest across central Madagascar during the next 24 hours. The center will pass a little north of Antananarivo. The mountains will disrupt the lower levels of the circulation and Chalane will weaken while it is over land. However, Tropical Cyclone Chalane will drop heavy rain over parts of central and northern Madagascar. The rain will be heaviest where winds push air up the slopes and flash floods could occur in regions of steep terrain.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move over the Mozambique Channel in a day or so. If the middle and upper parts of the circulation remain relatively intact, then Chalane could strengthen back into the equivalent of a tropical storm. Tropical Cyclone Chalane or the remnants of its circulation could approach Mozambique in 72 hours

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Swirls Toward Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Chalane swirled toward Madagascar on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 53.3°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) east of Mananara, Madagascar. Chalane was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chalane exhibited more organization on Friday, but the it was still asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation. Bands in the northern half of Chalane consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in the bands south of the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the south side of Tropical Cyclone Chalane. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the northern side of Chalane.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Chalane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification. However, the winds will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone Chalane from intensifying during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Chalane toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chalane will approach northern Madagascar in about 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Chalane will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.