Category Archives: Australian Region

Tropical Cyclone Niran Strengthens over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 149.2°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran continued to intensify over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) developed at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. The strongest rainbands were in the northern half of Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Niran expanded in size on Wednesday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. It is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in 48 hours. Niran could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea east of Queensland on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 14.7°S and longitude 148.3°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened over the Coral Sea on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Niran. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran will continue to intensify during the next 36 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in about three days.

Tropical Cyclone Marian Spins Southwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Marian continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Tuesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 18.8°S and longitude 90.0°E which put it about 650 miles (1045 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the east-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Marian remained well organized on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was present at the center of Marian. The eye was surrounded a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Even though the circulation was well organized, satellite images of Tropical Cyclone Marian suggested that it could be starting to weaken. The temperature of the tops of thunderstorms was warming which indicated that those storms were not rising as high in the atmosphere. Microwave satellite imagery depicted breaks forming in the southwestern part of the eyewall of Marian.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Marian was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.4.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move into an environment that will be less favorable for tropical cyclones during the next few days. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 27°C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Marian from the west. The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Marian. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear. A combination of slightly cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Marian to weaken during the next several days.

The upper level trough will begin to steer Tropical Cyclone Marian toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island. Tropical Cyclone Marian is forecast to remain west of Western Australia during the next five days.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Develops over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Niran developed over the Coral Sea east of Queensland on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 147.0°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Coral Sea east of Queensland strengthened on Monday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Niran. The circulation around Niran was organizing gradually. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and they are contributing to the current asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification. Tropical Cyclone Niran will intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next day or so. Niran could make a slow loop over the Coral Sea east of Queensland during the next 24 hours. A high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean will strengthen during the week. The high will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Niran toward the southeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track Niran could approach New Caledonia during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Marian Intensifies To Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Sunday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 91.1°E which put it about 520 miles (835 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the past 24 hours. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) formed at the center of Marian. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of the circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Marian.

The area of the strongest winds expanded as Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified rapidly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Marian was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.3.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the western portion of an upper level ridge. The upper level winds will be weak during the next 12 hours and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Marian could intensify during the next 12 hours. Marian will move closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes early next week. The vertical wind shear will increase at that time and Tropical Cyclone Marian will weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Marian toward the southwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island. After Marian moves around the western end of the high pressure system, the tropical cyclone will start to move toward the southeast..

Tropical Cyclone Marian Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Saturday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 16.4°S and longitude 93.0°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Marian continued to exhibit more organization on Saturday. An eye was visible at the center of Marian at times on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Marian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the western portion of an upper level ridge. The upper level winds will be weak during the next 24 hours and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Marian is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system. The high will steer Marian toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island. Marian could recurve back toward Australia next week after it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Low Forms over Gulf of Carpentaria

A Tropical Low formed over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday afternoon. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 139.5°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) west of Kowanyama, Australia. It was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Watches were issued for the portion of the coast of Queensland from Aurukun to Karumba and for Mornington Island.

Thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system over the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday afternoon and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low. The circulation around the Tropical Low was still organizing. Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of circulation. More thunderstorms were also forming in bands revolving around the center of the Tropical Low. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water in the Gulf of Carpentaria where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The Tropical Low will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a tropical storm.

The Tropical Low will move south of a high pressure system centered north of Australia during the next 24 hours. The high will steer the Tropical Low toward the east. On its anticipated track the Tropical Low could approach the southwest coast of Queensland in about 24 hours. The steering winds could weaken in a day or so and the Tropical Low could stall near the coast. Even if the center of the Tropical Low does not make landfall, bands in the eastern half of the circulation could drop heavy rain over parts of northern Queensland. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi Strengthens East of Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Kimi strengthened east of Queensland on Sunday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kimi was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 146.6°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia. Kimi was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the Queensland coast from Port Douglas to Lucinda. The Warning includes Cairns, Innisfail and Cardwell. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lucinda to Ayr.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi strengthened as it moved parallel to the east coast of Queensland on Sunday. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology radar at Cairns showed a well defined center of circulation. The center was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Kimi. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Kimi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge east of Australia. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Kimi is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours. Kimi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system east of Australia. The high will steer Kimi toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kimi could approach the coast of Queensland between Innisfail and Cardwell in 24 hours. Kimi could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon or a strong tropical storm when it approaches the coast. Tropical Cyclone Kimi could drop heavy rain over parts of Queensland. The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi Forms Near Queensland

Tropical Storm Kimi formed near the coast of Queensland on Saturday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kimi was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 146.4°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Kimi was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cardwell. The Warning included Cooktown, Port Douglas and Cairns.

The circulation around a small low pressure system near the coast of Queensland strengthened quickly on Saturday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Kimi. The circulation around Kimi was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Kimi.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kimi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge east of Australia. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Kimi is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours. Kimi could strengthen rapidly because the circulation is small.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system east of Australia. The high will steer Kimi toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kimi will approach the coast of Queensland between Cooktown and Port Douglas in less than 24 hours. Kimi could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon or a strong tropical storm when it approaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Joshua Develops Southwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Joshua developed over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Saturday. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joshua was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 92.0°E which put it about 465 miles (750 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Joshua was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation around a tropical low southwest of Cocos Island strengthened on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Joshua. The circulation around Joshua exhibited much more organization on Saturday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Tropical Cyclone Joshua. Microwave satellite imagery indicated that an eye could be forming at the center of Joshua. Storms around the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Joshua will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Joshua will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Joshua is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Joshua will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Joshua toward the west-southwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Joshua will move farther away from Cocos Island. Joshua will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, a tropical depression formed north-northeast of Rodrigues. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the tropical depression was was located at latitude 12.6°S and longitude 65.2°E which put it about 490 miles (790 km) north-northeast of Rodrigues. The depression was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb. The depression is forecast to move toward the west and to strengthen.