Category Archives: Australian Region

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Turns Toward Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja turned toward the coast of Western Australia on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 23.2°S and longitude 110.2°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) northwest of Kalbarri, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect from Minilya Roadhouse to Lancelin, Australia. The Warning included Cape Cuvier, Carnavon, Denham, Kalbarri, Jurien Bay and Lancelin.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon after it turned toward the coast of Western Australia on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Seroja and microwave satellite images showed evidence of the formation of an eye. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Seroja generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Seroja. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will limit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Seroja could get a little stronger during the next 12 hours. Seroja will begin to weaken when it moves over Western Australia.

The upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will steer Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja will pass just to the west of Denham during the next 12 hours. Seroja make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Kalbarri in 15 hours. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move across the southwestern part of Western Australia after it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will bring produce winds to hurricane/typhoon force to the portion of the coast near Kalbarri. Winds to tropical storm force could occur along the portion of the coast from Denham to Geraldton. Wind blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) near where the center makes landfall. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia. Flood Watches have been issued for the Wooramel, Murchison, Greenough, Yarra Yarra Lakes, Avon River and parts of the Salt Lake Catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Prompts Watch for Western Australia

A potential threat posed by Tropical Cyclone Seroja prompted the issuance of a Watch for the coast of Western Australia. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 109.8°E which put it about 315 miles (505 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch was issued for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Coral Bay to Lancelin. The Watch included Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri and Geraldton.

More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja on Thursday night. The distribution of thunderstorms was more symmetrical, which indicated that the vertical wind shear was decreasing. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Seroja.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia during the next 24 hours. The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will decrease. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Seroja could strengthen more rapidly if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the center and an inner core forms.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia during the next day or so. The high will steer Seroja toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Seroja from the west during the weekend. The trough will turn Seroja toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Denham and Lancelin in 60 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Odette was interacting with the northwest side of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Odette was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 108.2°E which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Odette was moving toward the east at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb. Even though the wind speeds are stronger in Tropical Cyclone Odette than they are in Tropical Cyclone Seroja, the circulation around Seroja is larger. The circulation of Odette is forecast to absorbed by the larger circulation of Seroja. In addition, upper level divergence from Seroja will cause vertical wind shear over Odette, which will also cause the circulation around Odette to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Spins Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja was spinning northwest of Australia on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 113.4°E which put it about 410 miles (665 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja was exhibiting signs of intensification on Wednesday night, but it was also still being affected by vertical wind shear. More thunderstorms were beginning to form near the center of circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Seroja. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment more favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over northwestern Australia during the next 24 hours. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours. Seroja will move closer to the axis of the upper level ridge in a day or so. The winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will decrease. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours. Seroja could strengthen more rapidly when the vertical wind shear decreases and it is forecast to intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will steer Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja during the weekend. The trough will turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could approach the coast of Western Australia south of Denham in 72 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S was interacting with the western side of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 105.9°E which put it about 645 miles (1040 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Moves away from Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja moved slowly away to the south of Indonesia on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 11.7°S and longitude 119.8°E which put it about 460 miles (740 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

After dropping heavy rain over parts of eastern Indonesia and causing flash floods and mudslides, Tropical Cyclone Seroja moved slowly away from the area on Monday. The circulation around Seroja appeared to be a little stronger on Monday night. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around a well defined low level center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storms force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered over northwestern Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could intensify gradually during the next 48 hours. Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next several days. The wind shear will decrease later this week and Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen more rapidly when that occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja later this week. The trough could turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could eventually threaten Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S churned south of Christmas Island. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 105.5°E which put it about 700 miles (1100 km) northwest of Learmonth, Australia. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Intensifies South of Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja intensified south of Indonesia on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 10.7°S and longitude 122.3°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-southwest of Kupang, Indonesia. Seroja was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A tropical low near West Timor intensified into Tropical Cyclone Seroja south of Indonesia on Sunday. Bands of strong thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Seroja. The strongest bands were in the northern and western parts of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will continue to intensify during the next 48 hours. Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja later this week. The trough could turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could eventually threaten Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S formed south of Christmas Island. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 104.8°E which put it about 330 miles (535 km) south of Christmas Island. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Low Develops Near West Timor

A tropical low developed near West Timor on Saturday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the tropical low was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 123.6°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) west of Kupang, Indonesia. The tropical low was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An area of low pressure near West Timor exhibited more organization on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a tropical low. Visible and microwave satellite images showed a distinct low level center of circulation. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical low.

The tropical low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. The tropical low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical low is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by early next week.

The tropical low will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. It will remain near West Timor during that time. Thunderstorms in rainbands will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur. A high pressure system over Australia will begin to steer the tropical low toward the southwest in a day or so. On its anticipated track the system will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Strengthens over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 149.2°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran continued to intensify over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) developed at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. The strongest rainbands were in the northern half of Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Niran expanded in size on Wednesday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. It is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in 48 hours. Niran could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea east of Queensland on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 14.7°S and longitude 148.3°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened over the Coral Sea on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Niran. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran will continue to intensify during the next 36 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in about three days.

Tropical Cyclone Marian Spins Southwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Marian continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Tuesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 18.8°S and longitude 90.0°E which put it about 650 miles (1045 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the east-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Marian remained well organized on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was present at the center of Marian. The eye was surrounded a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Even though the circulation was well organized, satellite images of Tropical Cyclone Marian suggested that it could be starting to weaken. The temperature of the tops of thunderstorms was warming which indicated that those storms were not rising as high in the atmosphere. Microwave satellite imagery depicted breaks forming in the southwestern part of the eyewall of Marian.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Marian was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.4.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move into an environment that will be less favorable for tropical cyclones during the next few days. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 27°C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Marian from the west. The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Marian. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear. A combination of slightly cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Marian to weaken during the next several days.

The upper level trough will begin to steer Tropical Cyclone Marian toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island. Tropical Cyclone Marian is forecast to remain west of Western Australia during the next five days.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Develops over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Niran developed over the Coral Sea east of Queensland on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 147.0°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Coral Sea east of Queensland strengthened on Monday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Niran. The circulation around Niran was organizing gradually. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and they are contributing to the current asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification. Tropical Cyclone Niran will intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next day or so. Niran could make a slow loop over the Coral Sea east of Queensland during the next 24 hours. A high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean will strengthen during the week. The high will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Niran toward the southeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track Niran could approach New Caledonia during the weekend.