Monthly Archives: August 2022

Tropical Depression Forms East of Luzon

A tropical depression formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 127.3°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) east of Luzon. The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed in an area of lower pressure east of Luzon on Sunday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency classified the system as a tropical depression. The distribution of thunderstorms in the tropical depression was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were in bands in the western half of the tropical depression. The bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. A strong upper level ridge over China was producing strong northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. The upper level ridge over China will continue to produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression. However, the upper level winds are forecast to weaken. The vertical wind shear could decrease during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm.

The tropical depression will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the tropical depression could approach northeastern Luzon in 24 hours. It is likely to be a tropical storm when it approaches Luzon. The weather system will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Luzon. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Brings Rain to Northeast Mexico

A tropical wave designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four brought rain to northeastern Mexico on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 97.9°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A tropical wave designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four moved inland over northeastern Mexico during Saturday night. A center of circulation never formed in the lower levels of the of the tropical wave and so it never developed into a tropical depression or a tropical storm. The tropical wave will move northwest over the Lower Rio Grande Valley on Sunday. Thunderstorms in the tropical wave could drop locally heavy rain over northeastern Mexico and South Texas. Some places could receive 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm) of rain. The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Prompts Tropical Storm Warnings for Texas and Mexico

A weather system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on Friday afternoon and Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for portions of the coasts of Texas and Mexico. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 94.5°W which put it about 400 miles (640 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield, Texas to Boca de Catan, Mexico.

A weather system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico exhibited more organization on Friday. However, observations from a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane on Friday afternoon indicated that there was not a well defined center of low level circulation in the weather system. The National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four in order to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of South Texas. The government of Mexico also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Mexico.

More thunderstorms developed in Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on Friday afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation appeared to be organizing into bands. The thunderstorms in Potential Tropical Cyclone Four began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the weather system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in that region and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours. A well defined low level center of circulation will have to develop in order for the system to become a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Four toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will make landfall south of Brownsville, Texas during Saturday night. It will bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds to South Texas and northern Mexico. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone 04B Makes Landfall South-southwest of Kolkata

Tropical Cyclone 04B made landfall on the coast of India south-southwest of Kolkata on Friday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B was located at latitude 21.9°N and longitude 87.7°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) south-southwest of Kolkata India. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 04B strengthened during the hours prior to landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) when Tropical Cyclone 04B made landfall on the coast of India south-southwest of Kolkata. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around a broad center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 04B will move farther inland over central India during the weekend. The tropical cyclone will gradually weaken when it moves farther inland. Tropical Cyclone 04B will drop heavy rain over parts of central India. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone 04B Forms over Northern Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 04B formed over the northern Bay of Bengal on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 89.5°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) southeast of Kolkata India. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 04B developed over the northern Bay of Bengal southeast of Koklata, India on Thursday afternoon. The distribution of thunderstorms around the tropical cyclone was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of the circulation. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone 04B consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over southern Asia was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was contribution to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, the upper level ridge over southern Asia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone 04B could intensify during the next 12 hours, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B could be south of Kolkata in 12 hours. It could make landfall on the coast of India southwest of Kolkata in 18 hours. Tropical Cyclone 04B will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the region of India south and west of Kolkata. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Ivette Develops Unexpectedly

Tropical Storm Ivette developed unexpectedly over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ivette was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 113.9°W which put it about 445 miles (710 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Ivette was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Ten-E strengthened unexpectedly on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Ivette. An upper level ridge west of Mexico had been producing moderate easterly winds that were blowing across the top of former Tropical Depression Ten-E’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was blowing the tops off of any thunderstorms that tried to form in the tropical depression. The strengthen of the upper level winds weakened for a few hours on Monday, which caused the vertical wind shear to decrease. New thunderstorms formed in bands in the western half of former Tropical Depression Ten-E. Downdrafts in those thunderstorms transported stronger winds to the surface and the depression strengthened to Tropical Storm Ivette. Tropical storm force were occurring up to 90 miles (145 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Ivette’s circulation. The winds in the other quadrants were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ivette will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Ivette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge west of Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Ivette is likely to weaken during the next 48 hours, although some fluctuations in intensity could occur if the strength of the upper level winds varies.

Tropical Storm Ivette will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ivette slowly toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ivette will move a little farther away from Baja California.

Invest 98L Brings Rain to South Texas

A low pressure system designated as Invest 98L brought rain to South Texas on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Invest 98L was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 97.5°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) south of Corpus Christi, Texas. Invest 98L was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A low pressure system designated as Invest 98L brought rain to South Texas on Sunday morning when the center of the low moved inland just south of Corpus Christi. The low pressure system exhibited much more organization as it approached the coast. A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on both visible satellite and radar images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the low pressure system. The strongest winds were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Invest 98L, which were still over the Gulf of Mexico.

Invest 98L will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the southern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Invest 98L toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Invest 98L will move inland over the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Invest 98L will drop widespread rain over South Texas. Many places could receive 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm). Heavier rain could fall over some locations and localized flooding is possible. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Brownsville, Texas issued a Flood Advisory for Jim Wells, Kleeburg and Nueces counties.

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Depression Ten-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 111.5°W which put it about 355 miles (570 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California exhibited more organization on Saturday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Ten-E. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Ten-E was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical depression. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Depression Ten-E was moving under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over northern Mexico. The upper level ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was the primary reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Depression Ten-E will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge over northern Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Depression Ten-E could strengthen to a tropical storm if the upper level winds weaken for a few hours. The tropical depression will move over cooler water on Monday, which will make the environment unfavorable for intensification.

Tropical Depression Ten-E will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tropical Depression Ten-E toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Ten-E will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Meari Brings Rain to Tokyo

Tropical Storm Meari brought rain to Tokyo on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Meari was located at latitude 35.4°N and longitude 139.2°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan. Meari was moving toward the northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Meari brought rain to the region around Tokyo on Saturday morning. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Meari’s circulation. Much of the heavier rain was falling south and east of Tokyo. Bands in the northern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring along the coast of Honshu southeast of Tokyo.

Tropical Storm Meari was moving under the southern part of an upper level trough centered northwest of Japan. The upper level trough was producing southwesterly winds that were steering Meari toward the northeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Meari will move east of Japan during the next 24 hours. The rain over Honshu will diminish when Meari moves away from the coast.

Tropical Storm Meari will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next several days. Meari will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26˚C. The upper level trough will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Meari’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The combination of colder Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear could cause Tropical Storm Meari to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Meari could strengthen a little during the transition to an extatropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 03A Forms South of Pakistan

Tropical Cyclone 03A formed over the Arabian Sea south of Pakistan on Thursday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03A was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 56.6°E which put it about 225 miles (370 km) south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Arabian Sea south of Pakistan strengthened on Thursday night and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 03A. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 03A was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over Southwest Asia was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and the shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 03A will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level ridge over Southwest Asia will continue to cause vertical wind shear. There is also drier air over Southwestern Asia. Tropical Cyclone 03A could strengthen during the next 24 hours if the wind shear does not increase.

Tropical Cyclone 03A will move south of a high pressure system over Southwest Asia. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03A will move a little closer to Pakistan.