Monthly Archives: February 2023

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed north of Mauritius on Monday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 56.0°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed north of Mauritius on Monday morning. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation brought gusty winds and heavy rain to Mauritius. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.3. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was stronger than Hurricane Harvey was, when Harvey hit the coast of Texas in 2017. Freddy was similar in size to Harvey. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. Concentric eyewalls would cause an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be north of La Reunion later today. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mauritius and La Reunion during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the east coast of Madagascar in 24 hours. Freddy is likely to still be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes North of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed north of Rodrigues on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 63.2°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) north of Rodrigues. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it passed north of Rodrigues on Sunday morning. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation brought gusty winds and rain to Rodrigues. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.6. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida, when Ida hit the coast of Louisiana in 2021. Freddy was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. Concentric eyewalls would likely cause an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be north of Mauritius in less than 24 hours. Freddy will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues until it moves farther away. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will also affect Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the east coast of Madagascar in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves East-Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved east-northeast of Rodrigues on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 68.8°E which put it about 430 miles (690 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Freddy was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still the equivalent of a major hurricane. The circulation around Freddy was very close to being in equilibrium with the environment around it. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.7. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey, when Harvey hit the coast of Texas in 2017. Freddy was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy has a structure similar to an annular hurricane. Tropical cyclones with a structure like an annular hurricane tend to maintain nearly a steady intensity.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be north of Rodrigues in 24 hours. Freddy could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar. Freddy could be north of Mauritius in 48 hours and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 73.2°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) south of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still the equivalent of a major hurricane as it passed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.8.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, then concentric eyewalls could form. That would start an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be northeast of Rodrigues in 48 hours. Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar in a few days. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could approach Mauritius in 72 hours and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in four days.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Still Moving West

Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still moving westward over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 78.8°E which put it about 720 miles (1165 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Freddy continued to move toward the west over the South Indian Ocean. A smallcircular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 30.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.6.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing small inner core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, then concentric eyewalls could form. That would start an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move south of Diego Garcia in 36 hours. Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar in a few days. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be northeast of Rodrigues in three days. Freddy could approach Mauritius in four days and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in five days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 31.5°S and longitude 67.7°E which put it about 860 miles (1385 km) south-southeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to near Threshold for Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to near the threshold for a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 84.2°E which put it about 1000 miles (1615 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified over the South Indian Ocean during Tuesday night. Freddy was near the threshold for a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.7.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could forms. That would start an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move south of Diego Garcia in three days. Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar in a few days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani continued to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 27.2°S and longitude 69.2°E which put it about 635 miles (1025 km) southeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the southwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Churns Westward

Tropical Cyclone Freddy churned westward over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 89.3°E which put it about 1315 miles (2120 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy started to intensify again when it moved into a more favorable environment on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was present at the center of Freddy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours, but the wind shear is not likely to be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move south of Diego Garcia in four or five days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani started a transition to an extratropical cyclone. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 22.7°S and longitude 71.5°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) east-southeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes South of the Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed south of the Cocos Islands on Sunday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 94.1°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Cocos Islands. Freddy was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy weakened a little as it passed south of the Cocos Islands on Sunday night. Freddy was moving under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The ridge produced stronger easterly winds that blew toward the top of Freddy’s circulation during Sunday night. Those winds caused more vertical wind shear and the shear caused Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken a little. The wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Freddy’s circulation to become more asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Some of the bands in the eastern side of Freddy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours. The wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken during the next 24 hours. Freddy could move into a region were the upper level winds are weaker later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move farther away from the Cocos Islands. Freddy could be south of Diego Garcia by the end of the week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani was passing east of Rodrigues. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 73.2°E which put it about 660 miles (1060 km) east of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Dingani strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 75.2°E which put it about 810 miles (1310 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) developed at the center of Dingani’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Dingani. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dingani. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dingani will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge. Tropical Cyclone Dingani is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Dingani could intensify rapidly at times, since it now has a well developed inner core with an eye and an eyewall.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dingani toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dingani could pass east of Rodrigues early next week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Freddy was southeast of Cocos Islands. Freddy was the equivalent of a major hurricane. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 98.3°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) southeast of Cocos Islands. Freddy was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east-southeast of Cocos Islands on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 102.5°E which put it about 450 miles (720 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Freddy was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) formed at the center of Freddy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds occurred in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.5.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours. Since the circulation around Freddy is small, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Tropical Cyclone to weaken during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be south of Cocos Islands in 36 hours. The core of Freddy and the strongest winds will pass south of Cocos Islands. Bands on the northern edge of Freddy’s circulation could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Cocos Islands.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani moved south-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 77.8°E which put it about 740 miles (1195 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Dingani was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.