Tropical Depression Cristobal began to move toward the north on Friday morning and watches were issued for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 89.9°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Campeche, Mexico. Cristobal was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb
A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the border between Alabama and Florida including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos.
The circulation around Tropical Depression Cristobal exhibited more organization on Friday morning. Bands of strong thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and northern portions of the circulation. Bands in the southern and western sides of Cristobal still consisted primarily of shower and lower clouds. The center of circulation was still over the Yucatan peninsula and there were not a lot of thunderstorms close to the center.
Tropical Depression Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C. It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Depression Cristobal will strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.
Tropical Depression Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next 36 to 48 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon. Cristobal is likely to be a tropical storm when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast but there is a slight chance it could be a hurricane at that time.
Tropical Storm Cristobal will bring gusty winds to the north central Gulf Coast. Those winds will push water toward the shore and they will generate a storm surge along the coast. Many places could experience a rise in the water level of 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters). In some locations the water level could rise 4 to 6 feet (1.3 to 2.0 meters). Rainbands on the northern and eastern sides of Cristobal could drop heavy rain. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into Tropical Depression Cristobal on Friday evening. Their observations should provide important information about the circulation around Cristobal.