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Tropical Cyclone Ialy Churns East of Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Ialy churned over the South Indian Ocean east of Tanzania on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 7.2°S and longitude 45.1°E which put it about 405 miles (650 km) east of Dar es Salaam, Tanzaniar. Ialy was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was completely surrounded by drier air, but the drier air had not penetrated the core by Sunday morning. Thunderstorms were still occurring in the inner ends of bands near the center of Ialy’s circulation. The outer portions of bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Ialy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will be more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air surrounding the core of Ialy’s circulation will inhibit formation of thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to start to weaken during the next 24 hours after the drier air penetrates the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain east of Tanzania. Ialy could move east of Kenya on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Spins North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ialy continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean north of Madagascar on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 7.7°S and longitude 47.7°E which put it about 305 miles (490 km) north-northwest of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Ialy was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The vertical wind shear decreased during Friday night and Saturday morning, and Tropical Cyclone Ialy intensified a little more. Drier air was pulled around the eastern side of Ialy’s circulation and the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Thunderstorms were also occurring near the center of Ialy’s circulation. Bands in the eastern part of Tropical Cyclone Ialy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms near the center of Ialy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ialy’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. In addition, the drier air in the eastern side of Ialy’s circulation will inhibit formation of thunderstorms in that region. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to start to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain move farther north of Madagascar. Ialy is likely to remain northeast of the Aldabra Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Moves North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ialy moved north of Madagascar on Friday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 50.1°E which put it about 225 miles (360 km) north-northeast of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Ialy was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

After strengthening a little on Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Ialy began to move into a less favorable environment on Friday. Ialy moved under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge produced northeasterly winds that blew toward the top of Ialy’s circulation. Those winds caused the vertical wind shear to increase. The wind shear also allowed drier air to wrap closer around the northern and eastern sides of the center of Tropical Storm Ialy.

The effects of more vertical wind shear and the drier air was beginning to affect the structure of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Ialy’s circulation. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Ialy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The northeasterly winds in the upper levels were inhibiting upper level divergence. Less mass was being removed from Tropical Cyclone Ialy and the surface pressure was slowly increasing.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will continue to allow drier air to be pulled closer to the center of Ialy’s circulation. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain north of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Forms Northeast of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ialy formed over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Madagascar on Thursday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 52.4°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) northeast of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Ialy was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean near northern Madagascar strengthened on Thursday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ialy. The flow of air around Tropical Cyclone Ialy appeared to be pulling drier air into the northern part of its circulation. The distribution of thunderstorms around Ialy was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Bands in the northern part of Ialy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Storms near the center or circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air in the northern part of Ialy’s circulation could inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless the drier air gets pulled into the center of its circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Brings Gusty Winds and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 23.4°S and longitude 44.0°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east of Toliara, Madagascar. Jasmine was moving toward the east at 10 m.p.h (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine made landfall on the southwest coast of Madagascar near Toliara on Tuesday. Jasmine was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move east across the southern end of Madagascar during the next 18 hours. Jasmine will weaken as it moves over southern Madagascar but it will continue to produce gusty winds. The gusty winds could cause minor damage and electrical outages. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of southern Madagascar. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in places with steep slopes.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Moves Toward Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine moved toward southwest Madagascar on Monday night. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 41.9°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Jasmine was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened slightly on Monday night as it moved over the Mozambique Channel toward southwest Madagascar. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jasmine’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the southern past of the ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. Storms near the core of Jasmine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. An upper level trough over southern Africa will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could intensify during the next few hours, but it may start to weaken later on Tuesday when the shear increases.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer tropical cyclone Jasmine toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Jasmine will approach the coast of southwest Madagascar during the next 12 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could make landfall near Toliara in 15 to 18 hours. Jasmine will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar during the next 36 hours. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Strengthens over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 39.6°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) north-northeast of Europa Island. Jasmine was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened on Sunday as it moved through a favorable environment over the Mozambique Channel. The distribution of thunderstorms around Jasmine’s circulation became more symmetrical, More thunderstorms developed around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Jasmine. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be large enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could get stronger during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over southern Africa will move toward Jasmine on Monday. The upper level trough could cause the wind shear to increase when it moves closer to Tropical Cyclone Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasmine toward the south during the next day or so. Jasmine could move more toward the southeast when it moves around the western end of the ridge early next week. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could approach southwestern Madagascar within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Develops near Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine developed near Mozambique on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 40.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Angoche, Mozambique. Jasmine was moving toward the south-southeast at 10 m.p.h (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A tropical depression over the western Mozambique Channel strengthened on Saturday night and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Jasmine’s circulation that were over the water in the Mozambique Channel. Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine were mostly over land and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Jasmine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. The winds in the northern half of Jasmine were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. There will be less friction when the western half of Jasmine’s circulation moves over the Mozambique Channel. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is likely to get stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasmine toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move away from the coast of Mozambique during the next 24 hours. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain over northern Mozambique will diminish when Jasmine moves farther away.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Weakens East of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Habana continued to weaken east of Rodrigues on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 22.0°S and longitude 71.1°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana continued to weaken over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues during the weekend. An upper level trough east of Madagascar was producing strong westerly winds which were blowing toward the top of Habana. Those winds were creating moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was the main factor causing Tropical Cyclone Habana to weaken. There was no longer an eye at the center of Habana. Bands of shower and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will remain in an environment that will cause it to weaken during the next several days. The upper level trough continue to create moderate vertical wind shear. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C. However, the wind shear will be too strong and it will prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Habana is likely to continue to weaken gradually.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through a region where two weather systems will compete to steer it. The westerly winds in the upper levels will try to push Habana toward the east. A high pressure system in the lower levels will try to push Habana toward the west. The upper level trough could push Tropical Cyclone Habana slowly toward the east during the next 12 to 24 hours. When Habana weakens further, the circulation will not extend as high into the atmosphere. So, the high pressure system in the lower levels will push Tropical Cyclone Habana toward the west during the upcoming week. On its anticipated track Habana could be southeast of Rodrigues by the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Habana weakened over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 20.0°S and longitude 70.8°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana weakened gradually over the South Indian Ocean on Friday. The temperature at the top of the clouds was not as cold, which indicated that the clouds were not rising as high in the atmosphere. Even though Habana was weakening it still was a very well organized tropical cyclone. There was an eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana increased slightly in size. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.4.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment that will gradually become less favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next several day. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 27°C. An upper level trough east of Madagascar will move toward Tropical Cyclone Habana. The trough will produce westerly winds which will blow toward the top of Habana. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Habana to weaken during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Habana toward the south during the next 24 hours. Then the high will strengthen and start to steer Habana toward the west again later in the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Habana could be southeast of Rodrigues in a next few days.