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Tropical Storm Philippe Stalls East of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe stalled east of the Leeward Islands on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 55.0°W which put it about 530 miles (855 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Rina formed over the Atlantic Ocean about 550 miles (890 km) east of Tropical Storm Philippe on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 46.6°W which put it about 1080 miles (1740 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Rina was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe stalled east of the Leeward Islands on Thursday when the circulation around Philippe began to interact with the circulation around Tropical Storm Rina. Philippe also weakened a little on Thursday. An upper level trough over the Caribbean Sea was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The low level center of Tropical Storm Philippe was large and weak. The wind shear was also causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Philippe was also affecting Tropical Storm Rina. Upper level divergence from Philippe was causing vertical wind shear in Tropical Storm Rina. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Rina to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Rina were in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Rina’s circulation. Bands in the northern and western parts of Rina consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the eastern part of Rina’s circulation. Winds in the western side of Rina were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough over the Caribbean Sea will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to keep Tropical Storm Philippe from intensifying on Friday.

The interaction between Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina will increase on Friday. Philippe and Rina are likely to start a counterclockwise loop around a point in between the two tropical storms. The situation when two tropical cyclones loop around a point between them is sometimes called the Fujiwhara effect. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe will move slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Rina is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Philippe Moves Toward Northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe moved toward the Northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 54.5°W which put it about 565 miles (910 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe continued to be affected by strong vertical wind shear on Wednesday. An upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to keep Tropical Storm Philippe from intensifying on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the central Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could approach the Northern Leeward Islands during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Philippe Weakens a Little

Tropical Storm Philippe weakened a little on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 52.0°W which put it about 730 miles (1180 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands . Philippe was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe continued to be affected by strong vertical wind shear on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the central Atlantic Ocean was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough over the central Atlantic will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Storm Philippe to weaken a little more on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could be northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Philippe Churns West

Tropical Storm Philippe churned westward over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 47.8°W which put it about 1005 miles (1620 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe was affected by strong vertical wind shear on Monday. An upper level low over the central Atlantic Ocean was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Tropical storm force winds only extended out 60 miles in the western side of Philippe.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level low over the central Atlantic will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Storm Philippe to weaken on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could be northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Philippe Strengthens East of Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Philippe strengthened over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 42.5°W which put it about 1275 miles (2055 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Philippe was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Even though Tropical Storm Philippe strengthened on Sunday, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Philippe consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level low over the central Atlantic Ocean was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Philippe’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level low over the central Atlantic will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Philippe could intensify a little on Monday, if the vertical wind shear does not get any stronger. If the wind shear does increase, then Philippe is likely to weaken.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe will pass far to the northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical Depression Nicole Drops Heavy Rain over Southeast U.S.

Tropical Depression Nicole dropped heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Nicole was located at latitude 34.2°N and longitude 84.3°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) north of Atlanta, Georgia. Nicole was moving toward the north-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Nicole dropped heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. on Friday morning. Heavy rain was falling over eastern Tennessee and eastern Kentucky. Bands in the far eastern side of Nicole’s circulation contained thunderstorms that were dropping heavy rain over parts of eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Nicole’s circulation were enhancing convergence and rising motion ahead of a cold front moving toward the eastern U.S. The enhanced convergence and rising motion was contributing to rain that was falling in the region from Delaware to Ohio.

The cold front approaching the eastern U.S. and an upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer Tropical Depression Nicole quickly toward the north-northeast during Friday. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Nicole will be over West Virginia by Friday evening. Heavy rain falling over parts of the southeastern U.S. and Appalachians could cause flooding. Flood Watches were in effect for parts of northern South Carolina, western North Carolina and southern Virginia. There could be enough low level wind shear for tornadoes to develop in the bands on the far eastern side of the circulation around Tropical Depression Nicole. A Tornado Watch was in effect for eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia.

Tropical Storm Nicole Brings Wind and Rain to Florida

Tropical Storm Nicole brought wind and rain to Florida on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 83.2°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Cedar Key, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. The Tropical Storm Warning included Jacksonville. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Aripeka to Indian Pass, Florida.

Tropical Storm Nicole brought wind and rain as it moved across Central Florida. Nicole weakened gradually as it moved across the Florida Peninsula, but it still had a well organized circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation.

The strongest winds in Tropical Storm Nicole occurred near the east coast of Florida on Thursday. A weather station in Daytona Beach reported a sustained wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (79 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 m.p.h. (113 km/h). A weather station in St. Augustine reported a sustained wind speed of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h). A weather station in Jacksonville reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h). The winds were weaker along the west coast of Florida. A weather station in Tampa reported a sustained wind speed of 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).

An upper level trough and a surface cold front over the central U.S. will turn Tropical Storm Nicole toward the northeast during Thursday night. The center of Nicole will be over southern Georgia on Thursday night and it could be over western South Carolina by Friday afternoon. Tropical Storm Nicole will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours. Nicole will produce gusty winds over northern Florida, southern Georgia and parts of South Carolina. Those winds could cause scattered power outages. The large waves causing serious beach erosion along the east coast of Florida will start to diminish on Friday. Waves could cause some erosion of beaches in Georgia and South Carolina on Friday when Tropical Storm Nicole moves farther to the north. Nicole could drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Florida, southern Georgia, and South Carolina. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Hurricane Nicole Makes Landfall in Florida

Hurricane Nicole made landfall in Florida early on Thursday. Nicole weakened to a tropical storm after it made landfall. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 80.7°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southeast of Orlando, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Daytona Beach, Jacksonville, and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida, The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the center of Hurricane Nicole made landfall on the east coast of Florida just to the south of Vero Beach. The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km) at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the eastern side of Nicole’s circulation at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 450 miles (725 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Nicole weakened to a tropical storm after the center moved inland over Central Florida, but Nicole was bringing strong, gusty winds to Central Florida. A weather station in Vero Beach reported a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 m.p.h. (97 km/h). A weather station in Melbourne reported a sustained wind speed of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 m.p.h. (103 km/h). A weather station in Orlando reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 m.p.h. (102 km/h). Tropical Storm Nicole was dropping heavy rain over parts of the Florida Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system near the East Coast of the U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nicole will move over northern Florida on Thursday evening. An upper level trough and a cold front will approach Nicole from the west on Thursday night. The upper level trough and cold front will steer Tropical Storm Nicole toward the northeast on Friday. The center of Nicole could be over South Carolina on Friday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Nicole will weaken gradually as it moves across Central Florida. Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds to central and northern Florida. Gusty winds could cause widespread power outages. Even though the center of Nicole will be inland, easterly winds will continue to blow water toward the east coast of Florida. Tropical Storm Nicole could cause a storm surge of up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) in some locations. Large waves will continue to cause significant beach erosion. Nicole will drop heavy rain over parts of central and northern Florida and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.

Nicole Transitions to Tropical Storm, Hurricane Warning Issued for Florida

Former Subtropical Storm Nicole completed a transition to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning and a Hurricane Warning was issued for a portion of the east coast of Florida. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 72.7°W which put it about 460 miles (740 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Miami. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound to Savannah River, Georgia.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of former Subtropical Storm Nicole’s circulation. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation is one of the characteristics of a tropical storm. When the thunderstorms near the center persisted, the National Hurricane Center indicated that Nicole had complete a transition to a tropical storm. There was still a large area of tropical storm force winds around Nicole. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 380 miles (615 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Nicole. Those winds were not entirely being produced by Nicole’s circulation. A large surface high pressure system was over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system was interacting with the northern side of Nicole’s circulation to generate the large area of tropical storm force winds.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will diminish. Tropical Storm Nicole is likely to intensify gradually during the next 12 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to strengthen more rapidly on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. will block Tropical Storm Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicole will reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole will move toward the west-northwest on Wednesday when it reaches the southwestern part of the high pressure system. Nicole will reach the east coast of Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and to central and northern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.

Subtropical Storm Nicole Prompts Hurricane Watch for South Florida

A probable threat posed by Subtropical Storm Nicole prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for part of South Florida on Monday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 70.1°W which put it about 465 miles (720 km) east of the Northwestern Bahamas. Nicole was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Melbourne, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Jacksonville and Daytona Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Miami.

Subtropical Storm Nicole was churning over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas on Monday afternoon. The circulation around Subtropical Storm Nicole continued to exhibit a complex structure that is fairly common late in the hurricane season. The surface center of circulation was northeast of an upper level low east of Florida. The strongest winds near the surface were occurring far to the east of the surface center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the eastern side of Subtropical Storm Nicole. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Nicole. The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Nicole’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Subtropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for a gradual transition to a tropical storm during the next 48 hours. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level low east of Florida will produce southerly winds that will blow across the top of the surface center of Subtropical Storm Nicole during the next 24 hours. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. Nicole will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker on Tuesday and the wind shear will diminish. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to strengthen gradually during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to make a transition to a tropical storm when it moves over the warmer water. Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The upper level low east of Florida will steer Subtropical Storm Nicole toward the northwest during the next 18 hours. A surface high pressure system currently over the Great Lakes will move over the East Coast of the U.S. and the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will block Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Nicole could reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole could reach the coast of Southeast Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.