Tag Archives: Cape Race

Hurricane Earl Speeds Northeast

Hurricane Earl sped toward the east over the North Atlantic Ocean south of Newfoundland on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Earl was located at latitude 41.2°N and longitude 53.5°W which put it about 380 miles (610 km) south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Earl was moving toward the northeast at 35 m.p.h. (56 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Hurricane Earl was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Saturday morning. An upper level trough over eastern Canada was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Earl’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the eyewall around the eye at the center of Hurricane Earl to become fragmented. The eyewall was broken on the southwestern side of the eye. There were still thunderstorms in the northeastern remnant of the eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the northeastern part of Earl’s circulation revolved around the center of Earl. Bands in the southwestern part of Hurricane Earl consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Hurricane Earl was almost as large as Hurricane Sandy was in 2012. Winds to hurricane force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Earl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 415 miles (675 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 32.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.2.

Hurricane Earl will complete the transition to a strong extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26˚C. The trough over eastern Canada will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The colder water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Earl’s structure to compete the transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The westerly winds in the middle latitudes will steer the extratropical cyclone toward the east during the next few days. The extratropical cyclone will weaken gradually over the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland during the next week.

Hurricane Larry Races Toward Newfoundland

Hurricane Larry raced toward Newfoundland on Friday morning. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Larry was located at latitude 40.0°N and longitude 60.5°W which put it about 595 miles (955 km) southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Larry was moving toward the north-northeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Arnold’s Cove to Jones Harbour, Newfoundland. The Hurricane Warning included St. John’s. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Francios to Arnold’s Cove and from Jones Harbour to Fogo Island, Newfoundland.

The structure of Hurricane Larry changed as it raced toward the north-northeast. A rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall and it appeared that concentric eyewalls may have formed. Microwave satellite imagery showed indications of a smaller inner eye inside a much larger outer eye. Drier air was being pulled into the circulation around Hurricane Larry. Zones of drier air with fewer clouds were beginning to appear between the rainbands.

The circulation around Hurricane Larry was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Larry. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Larry was 11.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 27.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.4. Hurricane Larry was about 60% of the size of Hurricane Sandy (2012).

Hurricane Larry will move through an environment that will allow Larry to maintain its intensity until it reaches Newfoundland. Larry will move over cooler water when it moves north of the Gulf Stream. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Larry’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. However, the southwesterly winds will also contribute to upper level divergence to the northeast of Hurricane Larry. Enhanced upper level divergence will allow the pressure at the surface to remain low. In addition, Hurricane Larry will begin to make a transformation to an extratropical cyclone when it nears Newfoundland.

The upper trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Larry rapidly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Larry will reach Newfoundland on Friday night. Larry will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeast Newfoundland. Widespread power outages could occur. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Zeta Strengthens over Northwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Zeta strengthened over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 260 miles (425 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos and for Cozumel. The Hurricane Warning included Cancun. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Zeta strengthened during Sunday, but the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. The stronger thunderstorms were mostly occurring in bands in the southern half of Zeta. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Despite the asymmetrical structure, thunderstorms near that center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Zeta. The winds on the western side of Zeta were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Zeta will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane. Zeta could weaken if the center passes over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.

A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of Tropical Storm Zeta on Monday. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Zeta could pass near the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. Zeta could be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan. Zeta will move more toward the north on Wednesday when it moves around the western end of the ridge. Zeta could reach the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Epsilon made a transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone east of Newfoundland. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located at latitude 48.6°N and longitude 38.8°W which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) east-northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

TD 28 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Zeta

Tropical Depression Twentyeight strengthened to Tropical Storm Zeta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea early on Sunday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos and for Cozumel. The Hurricane Watch included Cancun. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

Based on data from a NOAA airplane and a scatterometer on a satellite, the National Hurricane Center determined that Tropical Depression Twentyeight had strengthened to Tropical Storm Zeta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea early on Sunday morning. The circulation around Zeta was still not well organized. The circulation in the middle troposphere was located to the east of the surface center. The lower level circulation seemed to be shifting closer to the middle level circulation and it was possible that a new center could be developing under the middle level rotation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the middle level center. Storms near that center were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Data from the airplane indicated that winds to tropical storm force were occurring southeast of the center of Zeta. The tropical storm force winds extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Zeta.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If Zeta remains stationary for another 12 to 24 hours, its winds will mix cooler water to the surface, which could interrupt intensification. Tropical Storm Zeta will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane early next week.

Tropical Storm Zeta will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 12 to 24 hours. Zeta could meander over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during that time. A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of Tropical Storm Zeta later on Sunday. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Zeta could pass near the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday evening.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Epsilon was passing south of Newfoundland. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located at latitude 42.8°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Depression Five Strengthens into Tropical Storm Edouard

Former Tropical Depression Five strengthened into Tropical Storm Edouard northeast of Bermuda on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was located at latitude 37.2°N and longitude 56.9°W which put it about 685 miles (1100 km) south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Edouard was moving toward the northeast at 35 m.p.h. (56 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.  Tropical Storm Edouard became the earliest fifth named storm to form over the Atlantic Ocean during the satellite era since 1966.

Former Tropical Depression Five exhibited greater organization on satellite imagery and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Edouard.  More thunderstorms formed in bands east of the center of circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Edouard consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force were occurring within 60 miles of the center in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Edouard.  The winds in the other parts of Edouard were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Edouard will move through an environment that could allow for a little more intensification during the next 12 hours.  Edouard will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 24°C.  It will move under the southern fringe of the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those winds will blow toward the top of the circulation and they will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The relatively cool water temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will limit future intensification.  Tropical Storm Edouard could get a little stronger on Monday.  Edouard will move over cooler water later on Monday and it will start a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Edouard will move around the northern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Edouard toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Edouard will pass well south of Newfoundland.

Tropical Storm Dolly Develops Southwest of Newfoundland

Tropical Storm Dolly developed southwest of Newfoundland on Tuesday.  At 1:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located at latitude 39.4°N and longitude 61.9°W which put it about 660 miles (1065 km) southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Dolly was moving toward the east-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Former Subtropical Depression Four strengthened on Tuesday and its structure continued to make a transition to a more tropical cyclone like appearance.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped closely around the southern side of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in that band.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  A scatterometer on board a satellite estimated that there were winds above tropical storm force and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Dolly.  The winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) on the southern side of Dolly.  The winds in the other parts of the circulation were generally blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Dolly will move through an environment that could be favorable for intensification during the next 6 to 12 hours.  Dolly will move near the northern part of the Gulf Stream where the water is near 26°C.  It will move around the southeastern part of a weakening upper level low.  The upper low will produce some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification during the next 6 to 12 hours.  Tropical Storm Dolly is likely to move north of the Gulf Stream on Wednesday.  When Dolly moves over colder water it will start to weaken.

Tropical Storm Dolly will move around the southeastern side of the upper low during the next few hours.  The upper low will weaken on Wednesday and both the upper low and Dolly will be steered toward the northeast by a larger upper level trough over eastern North America.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dolly could bring gusty winds and rain to southeastern Newfoundland on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Tropical Depression Fifteen Forms Southeast of Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Depression Fifteen formed southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 20.2°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A large, well developed low pressure system embedded in the northern end of a tropical wave moved over the Atlantic Ocean west of North Africa on Monday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to strengthen when the low moved over water and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Fifteen.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the depression.  Storms closer to the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Tropical Depression Fifteen.  The circulation around the depression was quite large.  The diameter of the low level circulation was about 500 miles (800 km).

Tropical Depression Fifteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge centered over North Africa.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next day or two.  Tropical Depression Fifteen is likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm Nestor.

The ridge over North Africa will steer Tropical Depression Fifteen toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of the depression could reach the Cabo Verde Islands within 24 hours.  Since the depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm watches and/or warnings could be issued.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Melissa completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 41.0°N and longitude 51.4°W which put it about 405 miles (650 km) south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Melissa was moving toward the east at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Ernesto Makes Transition to Tropical Storm

Former Subtropical Storm Ernesto made a transition to a tropical storm on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located at latitude 43.0°N and longitude 41.0°W which put it about 645 miles (1035 km) east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Ernesto was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Even though now Tropical Storm Ernesto moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was between 24°C and 25°C, there was enough energy in the upper ocean to cause more thunderstorms to develop.  In addition, many of the thunderstorms developed close to the center of circulation.  The inner bands of showers and thunderstorms became stronger and the bands in the outer parts of the circulation weakened.  Ernesto exhibited a structure like a tropical cyclone and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as a tropical storm in the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move over much cooler water during the next 24 hours.  It is likely to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves over the cooler water.  Ernesto could strengthen when colder air is pulled into the western half of the circulation and a cold front forms south of the center.  The development of the cold front and upper level divergence could strengthen the pressure gradient force which would give the air a stronger push.  An upper level trough east of the U.S. is forecast to steer Ernesto in the general direction of Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forms West of the Azores

Subtropical Storm Ernesto formed west of the Azores on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located at latitude 38.1°N and longitude 46.0°W which put it about 695 miles (1120 km) southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Ernesto was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

More thunderstorms formed closer to the center of a low pressure system west of the Azores on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Subtropical Storm Ernesto.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and northern portions of the circulation.  Bands northwest of the center of Ernesto consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The circulation may have been transporting some cooler, drier, more stable air into that part of the circulation.  Showers and thunderstorms around the center of Ernesto were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the subtropical storm.

Subtropical Storm Ernesto will move through an environment that could support some intensification during the next day or so.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are not too strong and there will not be much vertical wind shear.  Subtropical Storm Ernesto could strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over cooler water later on Thursday and it will start to weaken.  An upper level trough east of the U.S. will approach Subtropical Storm Ernesto from the west.  Southwesterly winds ahead of the trough will cause more vertical wind shear and Ernesto could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The southwesterly winds ahead of the upper level trough will steer Subtropical Storm Ernesto in a general northeasterly direction.  On its anticipated track Subtropical Ernesto will pass between the Azores and Greenland.