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Tropical Storm Elsa Strengthens, Will Hit Windward Islands Friday

Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened on Thursday night. Elsa was on course to hit the Windward Islands on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 55.9°W which put it about 260 miles (420 km) east-southeast of Barbados. Elsa was moving toward the west at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Grenada and Jamaica. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the southern border from Haiti, and from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti.

Despite moving quickly toward the west-northwest, the circulation around Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened on Thursday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped partly around the northeastern portion of the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Elsa. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels will be stronger, which will generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to strengthen. If the winds in the lower levels get stronger than they are forecast to be, then those winds could push the lower part of Elsa west of the upper half of the tropical storm. If the lower and upper halves of Tropical Storm Elsa’s circulation decouple, then it would weaken.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next two days. The high will steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will move across the Windward Islands on Friday. Elsa will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the Windward Islands. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Hispaniola on Saturday and it could approach Jamaica and Cuba on Sunday. Elsa could be near South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

Tropical Storm Elsa Speeds Toward Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Elsa was speeding toward the Windward Islands on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 50.2°W which put it about 780 miles (1255 km) east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Elsa was moving toward the west at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Guadeloupe and Grenada.

The circulation in a tropical wave east-southeast of the Windward Islands exhibited a little more organization on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Elsa. The distribution of thunderstorms around Elsa was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the tropical storm. Bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Elsa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. A rainband appeared to be starting to wrap around the eastern side of the center of circulation. Despite the fact that the strongest thunderstorms were in the southern half of Elsa, the strongest winds were occurring north of the center of circulation. The pressure gradient between the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean and the tropical storm was producing the most force to the north of the center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Elsa. Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to strengthen. If the winds in the lower levels get a little stronger than they are forecast to be, then those winds could push the lower part of Elsa west of the upper half of the tropical storm. If the lower and upper halves of Tropical Storm Elsa’s circulation decouple, then it could weaken back to a tropical wave.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high is forecast to steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will reach the Windward Islands on Friday. Elsa will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the Windward Islands. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Hispaniola on Saturday and it could approach South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico be early next week.

Hanna Strengthens to a Hurricane Near South Texas

Former Tropical Storm Hanna strengthened into a hurricane near the coast of South Texas on Saturday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Hanna was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 96.0°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Hanna was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay, Texas.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Barra de Mezquital, Mexico to Port Mansfield and from Mesquite Bay to High Island, Texas.

A NOAA aircraft detected winds to hurricane force in former Tropical Storm Hanna on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded Hanna to a hurricane.  The circulation around Hurricane Hanna was well organized.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hanna.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

Hurricane Hanna will move through an environment favorable for strengthening during the next few hours.  Hanna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Hanna will continue to intensify until it makes landfall on the coast of South Texas.

Hurricane Hanna will move south of a high pressure system that stretches across the southern U.S.  The high will steer Hanna a little to the south of due west.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Hanna will make landfall on Padre Island later today.  The northern part of the eyewall will pass near Corpus Christi and that city could experience winds to hurricane force.  The southern part of the eyewall will pass near Port Mansfield which could also experience hurricane force winds.  The core of Hanna will pass north of Brownsville, but Brownsville, Harlingen and Mcallen could all experience winds to tropical storm force.

Easterly winds will blow water toward the coast of South Texas and they will cause a significant storm surge.  The storm surge could reach 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) near and just to the north of where the center makes landfall.  Hurricane Hanna will also drop heavy rain over South Texas.  Isolated locations could receive over a foot (0.3 meters) of rain and flash flooding is likely.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Gonazalo was quickly nearing Trinidad.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday  the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 59.8°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Trinidad.  Gonzalo was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect  for Tobago and Grenada.

Tropical Storm Hanna Prompts Hurricane Warning for Texas

A strengthening Tropical Storm Hanna prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the coast of Texas on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 94.3°W which put it about 195 miles (310 km) east of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Hanna was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Baffin Bay and from Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass, Texas.

Tropical Storm Hanna exhibited much more organization on Friday afternoon.  A primary rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Hanna.  The northern end of the rainband appeared to be wrapping around the rest of the center of circulation and an eye seemed to be forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Hanna.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center for circulation.

Tropical Storm Hanna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Hanna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Hanna will continue to intensify.  If an eye and eyewall form completely, then Hanna could strengthen rapidly during the 6 to 12 hours prior to landfall.  Tropical Storm Hanna is very likely to intensify into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Hanna will move south of a high pressure system that stretches across the southern U.S.  The high will steer Hanna toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Hanna will reach the coast of Texas near Corpus Christi during the middle of the day on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Hanna is very likely to be a hurricane when it makes landfall.  It will bring strong winds to the portion of the coast near where the eye makes landfall.  Strong winds blowing water toward the coast could create a storm surge of 6 to 8 feet (2 to 3 meters) near and to the north of where the eye makes landfall.

Elsewhere, a trade wind surge hit Tropical Storm Gonzalo from the northeast.  The surge caused increased low level wind shear and it brought drier air.  The increased shear and drier air caused Gonzalo to weaken.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located at latitude 10.0°N and 55.6°W which put it about 390 miles (625 km) east of the southern Windward Islands.  Gonzalo was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km.h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Tobago, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Tropical Depression Eight Strengthens to Tropical Storm Hanna

Former Tropical Depression Eight strengthened to Tropical Storm Hanna on Thursday night and a Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for a large portion of the coast of Texas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 91.4°W which put it about 385 miles (620 km) east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Hanna was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to San Luis Pass, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas.

A NOAA aircraft detected winds to tropical storm force in former Tropical Depression Eight on Thursday night and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Hanna.  The surface pressure was decreasing and Tropical Storm Hanna was exhibiting greater organization.  A band of thunderstorms was wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were forming in other bands the were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center in the eastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Hanna.  Winds in the other parts of Hanna were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Hanna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Hanna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Hanna will continue to intensify and there is a chance it could strengthen into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Hanna will move south of a high pressure system that extends from the Atlantic Ocean across the southern U.S.  The high will steer Hanna slowly toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Hanna will approach the coast of Texas near Corpus Christi on Saturday.  Hanna could be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane when it reaches the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Gonzalo continued to churn toward the Windward Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 50.6°W which put it about 730 miles (1170 km) east of the southern Windward Islands.  Gonzalo was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Tobago and Grenada.

Tropical Storm Karen Develops Near Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Karen developed near the Windward Islands on Sunday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 60.9°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) east-southeast of Grenada.  Karen was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, and for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

A center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of the axis of a strong tropical wave near the Windward Islands on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Karen.  The strongest thunderstorms were forming in bands south and west of the center of circulation.  Bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) on the eastern side of the tropical storm.

An upper level trough northeast of the Lesser Antilles was producing strong westerly winds which were blowing across the northern side of Tropical Storm Karen.  An upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea was producing strong northeasterly winds which were blowing across the western part of Karen.  The upper level winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear which was inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in those parts of Tropical Storm Karen.  The center of circulation developed in a region between the stronger upper level westerly and northeasterly winds.  Most of the thunderstorms were forming in that area where the upper level winds were not as strong.

Tropical Storm Karen will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Karen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature  is near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough and upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  If Tropical Storm Karen remains in the zone where the upper level winds are not as strong, it could strengthen.  However, if Karen moves under stronger upper level winds, it could weaken to a depression.  Tropical Storm Karen is forecast to move closer to the center of the upper level ridge in two or three days.  If that happens, then the upper level winds will be weaker and Karen could intensify.

Tropical Storm Karen will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Karen toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours.  Karen will move more toward the north when reaches the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Karen will move across the Windward Islands on Sunday.  Karen will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  Flash floods are likely.  Tropical Storm Karen could approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.  Tropical Storm Watches are likely to be issued for those islands.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Storm Jerry was spinning south of Bermuda.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 66.9°W which put it about 520 miles (835 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Jerry was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Dorian Brings Wind and Rain to Barbados

Tropical Storm Dorian brought wind and rain to Barbados on Monday night.  Observations made by a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian passed just south of Barbados on Monday night.  Dorian brought winds to tropical storm force and locally heavy rain.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 59.7°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) east-southeast of St. Lucia.  Dorian was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Puerto Rico, Grenada, Dominica, Saba and St. Eustatius.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian remained fairly small on Monday.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring primarily in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dorian were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear should not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Dorian will move just south of a large mass of drier air.  It appears that some drier air will get pulled into circulation at times and the drier air will interrupt periods of intensification.  Since the circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian is very small, Dorian could strengthen or weaken very quickly if environmental conditions change.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Dorian will pass near St. Lucia on Tuesday morning.  Dorian could approach Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Six formed off the southeast coast of the U.S.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Six was located at latitude 31.5N and longitude 72.2W which put it about 320 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Stronger Tropical Storm Dorian Causes Warnings for Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Dorian strengthened on Sunday and the threat it posed caused warnings and watches to be issued for some of the Lesser Antilles.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Grenada and Martinique.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 54.2°W which put it about 375 miles (605 km) east-southeast of Barbados.  Dorian was moving a little to the north of due west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian exhibited greater organization on Sunday afternoon.  The inner end of a band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped tightly around the northern and western sides of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in that band.  Several other bands of showers and storms were revolving around the small core of Dorian.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are relatively weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  A large area of drier air is north of Tropical Storm Dorian.  If the circulation draws drier air into the tropical storm, it would interrupt intensification.  Tropical Storm Dorian is likely to strengthen during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Since Dorian has a small circulation, it could intensify or weaken quickly if the environmental conditions change.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian could approach Barbados late on Monday.  It could be a hurricane by that time.  Dorian could reach the southern and central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.  Tropical Storm Dorian could bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands.

Tropical Storm Don Forms East of Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Don formed east of the Windward Islands on Monday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found a small, but well defined center of circulation in a cluster of thunderstorms formerly designated Invest 91L.  Based on information from the recon plane, the National Hurricane Center classified the system at Tropical Storm Don.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Don was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 52.6°W which put it about 595 miles (955 km) east of Trinidad.  Don was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issue for Grenada.  Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Barbados, St. Vincent, the Grenadines and St. Lucia.

The reconnaissance plane found a small, tight center of circulation near the surface.  A thin band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped partially around the western side of the center.  Other thin bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring north and west of the center.  There were fewer showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Don.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Don is small and winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms in the band west of the center of circulation were generating some upper level divergence but it was not well developed.

Tropical Storm Don will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Don will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge east of Don is generating easterly winds which are blowing over the top of the tropical storm.  Those easterly winds are generating some vertical wind shear and the shear may partly explain why there are fewer showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation.  The shear will also inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Don could strengthen during the next 24 to 48 hours.

A strong subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean is steering Tropical Storm Don toward the west and a generally westward motion is expected to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Don could pass south of Barbados on Tuesday.  Tropical Storm Don could move over the southern Windward Islands on Tuesday night.  Tropical Storm Don could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Windward Islands.  Flash floods could occur in areas of steep terrain, if they receive locally heavy rainfall.

Tropical Storm Bret Forms Near Trinidad

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Potential Tropical Cyclone 02 on Monday afternoon as it moved closer to Trinidad and the plane found a closed circulation.  Based on data from the reconnaissance plane the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Bret.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 9.5°N and longitude 60.5°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) southeast of Trinidad.  Bret was moving toward the west-northwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago and the coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao.

The reconnaissance plane found a well organized center of circulation at the surface.  The strongest winds were occurring in vigorous bands of thunderstorms located north of the center of circulation.  Weaker showers and thunderstorms were occurring in bands south of the center of circulation.  The thunderstorms north of the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Bret is fairly small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment that will only be marginally favorable for intensification on Tuesday.  Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge east of Bret and an upper level trough to the west are producing southerly winds which are generating moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear may be responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The shear will also inhibit intensification during the next 24 hours, although some intensification may possible.  When Bret moves into the Caribbean Sea, the vertical wind shear will increase.  Tropical Storm Bret will also move very close to the north coast of Venezuela.  It could pull drier air from South America into the southern part of the circulation, which would contribute to further weakening.

The subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean is steering Tropical Storm Bret rapidly toward the west-northwest.  A fast west-northwesterly motion is forecast to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bret will move across Trinidad, near the north coast of Venezuela and toward Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao.  It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to all of those places.