Tag Archives: HWISI

Hurricane Rafael Weakens Over Gulf of Mexico

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Hurricane Rafael weakened over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 89.7°W which put the center about 230 miles (365 km) north of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Hurricane Rafael started to weaken over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  An upper level low over the central U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Drier air was being pulled into the western side of Hurricane Rafael.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air caused Hurricane Rafael to start to weaken.

The moderate vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Hurricane Rafael.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  The western part of the former eyewall weakened and that part of the eyewall consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in the eastern part of the former eyewall.  Thunderstorms were also still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Rafael was bigger than Idalia was.

Rafael will move into an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However the upper level low over the central U.S. will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  More drier air will also get pulled into the western side of Rafael’s circulation.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air will cause Hurricane Rafael to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The winds steering Hurricane Rafael will weaken during the next 24 hours.  As a result, on its anticipated track, Hurricane Rafael will meander over the central Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Typhoon Yinxing Spins Over the South China Sea

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Typhoon Yinxing was spinning over the South China Sea on Friday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 115.4°E which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southeast of Hong Kong.  Yinxing was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Typhoon Yinxing was the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday afternoon as it spun over the South China Sea.  A circular eye with a diameter of 22 miles (35 km) was that the center of Typhoon Yinxing.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Yinxing’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Yinxing generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Yinxing was a little smaller on Friday afternoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Typhoon Yinxing.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Yinxing was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.7.  Typhoon Yinxing was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Yinxing is bigger than Delta was.

Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, a high pressure system over China will circulate drier air toward the northwestern part of Typhoon Yinxing.  The drier air will begin to be pulled into the northwestern part of Yinxing’s circulation.  The drier air will cause the thunderstorms in the part of Typhoon Yinxing.  The drier air is likely to cause Typhoon Yinxing to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Yinxing will move pass south of Hong Kong during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Rafael Moves Over Southeastern Gulf of Mexico

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Hurricane Rafael moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 86.2°W which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Rafael weakened a little on Wednesday night as it moved across western Cuba.  Rafael strengthened again on Thursday when it moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rafael’s circulation and an eye formed again at the center of Hurricane Rafael.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Rafael’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.8.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Rafael will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Rafael could intensify during the next 24 hours.  The wind shear is likely to increase during the weekend and Rafael is likely to weaken when the shear increases.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Rafael will move toward the central Gulf of Mexico.

Powerful Typhoon Yinxing Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Luzon

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Power Typhoon Yinxing was bringing wind and rain to northern Luzon on Thursday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 122.0°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) northeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Yinxing was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

The eye of powerful Typhoon Yinxing was just north of the coast of northern Luzon on Thursday morning.  The eye had a diameter of  23 miles (37 km).  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Yinxing.  Storms near the core of Yinxing generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper level slightly exceed the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Yinxing was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of Typhoon Yinxing.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Yinxing was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.6.  Typhoon Yinxing was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Even though Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification, much of the southern half of Yingxing’s circulation, including the southern side of the eyewall, will move across northern Luzon.  Since almost half of Yinxing’s circulation will move over land Typhoon Yinxing will weaken during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean . The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Yinxing will move near the north coast of Luzon during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Luzon during the next 24 hours.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Yinxing will cause widespread power outages.  Typhoon Yinxing could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of northern Luzon.  Yinxing will be capable of causing regional severe damage.

Hurricane Rafael Hits Western Cuba

Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba late on Wednesday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 82.7°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Havana, Cuba.   Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A  Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. 

Hurricane Rafael intensified to a major hurricane on Wednesday before it hit western Cuba.  Concentric eyewalls formed in the core of Rafael’s circulation.  An eyewall replacement cycle started, but the inner eyewall was still intact when Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba.  Since the inner eyewall was still intact, Rafael did not weaken before it hit Cuba.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.4.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Rafael was not as big as Delta was.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will move across western Cuba during the next few few hours.  Rafael will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.

Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.  Hurricane Rafael will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Hurricane Rafael will weaken as it moves across western Cuba.  Rafael will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification after it moves north of Cuba.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Rafael will could intensify on Thursday after it moves north of Cuba.

Hurricane Rafael Approaches Western Cuba

Hurricane Rafael was approaching western Cuba on Wednesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 81.9°W which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) south-southeast of Havana, Cuba.  Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A  Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. 

Hurricane Rafael began to intensify more rapidly on Wednesday morning.  Two concentric eyewalls formed at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  A small inner eye was at the center of Hurricane Rafael.  The inner eye was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the inner eye and eyewall and a larger, outer eyewall formed.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.0.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Rafael was not as big as Zeta was.

Hurricane Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Rafael will intensify during the next few hours.  Rafael is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will reach western Cuba in a few hours.

Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.  Hurricane Rafael will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Typhoon Yinxing Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Yinxing intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon on Wednesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 123.7°E which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Yinxing was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Typhoon Yinxing intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Luzon on Wednesday morning.  A circular eye was at the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Yinxing.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Yinxing was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles from the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of Typhoon Yinxing.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Yinxing was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.2.  Typhoon Yinxing was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Yinxing will intensify during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Yinxing will reach northern Luzon in 18 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Luzon.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Yinxing will cause widespread power outages.  Typhoon Yinxing could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of northern Luzon.  Yinxing will be capable of causing regional major damage.

Typhoon Kong-rey Brings Wind and Rain to Taiwan

Typhoon Kong-rey brought strong winds and heavy rain to Taiwan on Thursday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Kong-rey was located at latitude 23.6°N and longitude 121.1°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) south of Hualien, Taiwan.  Kong-rey was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

The center of Typhoon Kong-rey made landfall on the east coast of Taiwan south of Hualien early on Thursday.  Kong-rey was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) from the center of Typhoon Kong-rey.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kong-rey was 20.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 30.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.9.  Typhoon Kong-rey was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ike when Ike hit Texas in 2008.

Typhoon Kong-rey was producing strong winds over much of Taiwan.  Those winds were capable of causing major damage.  Kong-rey was also dropping heavy rain over much of Taiwan.  The heavy rain in likely to cause flash floods in many locations.

Typhoon Kong-rey will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kong-rey toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours.  An upper level trough over eastern China will turn Kong-rey toward the north-northeast on Friday.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kong-rey will move across Taiwan during the next few hours.  Kong-rey will move over the East China Sea and it will approach the east coast of China in 18 hours.

Typhoon Kong-rey will weaken today as it moves across Taiwan.  Kong-rey is unlikely to intensify when it moves over the East China Sea.  Kong-rey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over eastern China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  More vertical wind shear will cause Kong-rey to continue to weaken after it moves over the East China Sea.

Bands on the western side of Typhoon Kong-rey will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the east coast of China.  Strong winds and locally heavy rain will affect coastal regions in Fujian and Zhejiang.

 

Typhoon Kong-rey Approaches Taiwan

Typhoon Kong-rey was approaching Taiwan on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Kong-rey was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 123.2°E which put the center about 350 miles (565 km) south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Kong-rey was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (2225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 934 mb.

Typhoon Kong-rey went through an eyewall replacement cycle during the past 18 hours.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall.  Concentric eyewalls formed.  The inner eyewall had a diameter of 25 miles (40 km).  The outer eyewall had a diameter of 175 miles (285 km).  The inner eyewall started to weaken after the outer eyewall formed.  Typhoon Kong-rey weakened a little after the eyewall replacement cycle began

A large eye with a diameter of 175 miles (285 km) was at the center of Kong-rey’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the large eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Kong-rey.  Storms near the core of Kong-rey’ circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the large quantities of mass flowing into the center of Typhoon Kong-rey in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The near balance of upper level divergence and lower level convergence of mass caused the surface pressure to increase very gradually.

The eyewall replacement cycle caused the circulation around Typhoon Kong-rey to increase in size.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 260 miles (420 km) from the center of Typhoon Kong-rey.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kong-rey was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 42.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 70.3.  Typhoon Kong-rey was bigger and stronger than Hurricane Ivan was when Ivan made landfall on the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico in 2004.

Typhoon Kong-rey will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Kong-rey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Kong-rey could intensify during the next 12 hours if the large eye starts to contract.

Typhoon Kong-rey will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kong-rey toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kong-rey will reach Taiwan in 18 hours.

Typhoon Kong-rey is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Taiwan.  Kong-rey will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to Taiwan.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods.  Typhoon Kong-rey could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meter)s along the east coast of Taiwan.  Typhoon Kong-rey will be capable of causing extensive major damage in Taiwan.

Typhoon Kong-rey Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Kong-rey rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of Taiwan on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Kong-rey was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 125.2°E which put the center about 505 miles (815 km) south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Kong-rey was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

Typhoon Kong-rey rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) formed at the center of Kong-rey’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Kong-rey.  Storms near the core of Kong-rey’ circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Kong-rey was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 260 miles (415 km) from the center of Typhoon Kong-rey.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kong-rey was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 34.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 64.0.  Typhoon Kong-rey was capable of causing extensive severe damage.

Typhoon Kong-rey will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kong-rey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Kong-rey will intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Kong-rey to weaken.   If an eyewall replacement cycle does not occur, then Typhoon Kong-rey could intensify to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Typhoon Kong-rey will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kong-rey toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kong-rey will reach Taiwan in 36 hours.

Typhoon Kong-rey is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Taiwan.  Kong-rey will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to Taiwan.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods.  Typhoon Kong-rey will be capable of causing major damage in Taiwan.