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Typhoon Sarika Near Catanduanes Island, Threatens Luzon

The center of Typhoon Sarika is located near Catanduanes Island and Sarika poses a serious threat to Luzon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 124.8°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Sarika is well organized.  An eye has appeared at times on conventional and microwave satellite imagery.  A primary rainband wrapped around the eye and strong thunderstorms are occurring in the eyewall.  Additional, well formed rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  The convection around the core is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping away mass.

Typhoon Sarika is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Sarika will continue to intensify as long as the center stays over the water and it could intensify rapidly now that the circulation is well organized.

A subtropical ridge north of Sarika is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Sarika will remain north of Catanduanes Island.  It will pass just to the north of Daet and Labo on Saturday.  The center of Typhoon Sarika could be near or just to the north of the Polillo Islands in 12-16 hours.  Sarika could make a landfall near Baler on Luzon in 18-24 hours.

Sarika is a well organized intensifying typhoon.  It could bring strong winds to portions of northern Luzon.  Typhoon Sarika will also bring very heavy rain and create the potential for flash floods and mudslides.  Sarika will generate a storm surge in places where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Tropical Storm Sarika Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Sarika formed east of the Philippines on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Sarika was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 127.0°W which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Sarika was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Sarika is still organizing.  Most of the thunderstorms are occurring in a broad rainband that curls around the western and southern sides of the circulation.  There are a few thunderstorms in thinner rainbands in the eastern half of the circulation.  More thunderstorms are developing closer to the center of circulation.  Those thunderstorms are beginning to produce upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  As the mass is removed, the pressure decreases and the wind speeds increase.

Tropical Storm Sarika is moving through an environment that is generally favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the north of Sarika is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the top of the tropical storm.  The vertical wind shear may account for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms, but it is not strong enough to prevent Sarika from intensifying.  The vertical wind shear could slow the rate of intensification while the core of the circulation becomes better organized.  Sarika could strengthen into a typhoon with the next 24 to 36 hours.

A subtropical ridge north of Sarika is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  In a day or so Tropical Storm Sarika is forecast to turn more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sarika could be near Catanduanes Island in about 24 hours.  Sarika could be near Central Luzon in about 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Sarika is expected to intensify into a typhoon.  It could bring strong winds and very heavy rain to parts of the northern Philippines.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods and mudslides.

Super Typhoon Chaba Threatens Japan and South Korea

Super Typhoon Chaba moved north on Monday and it threatened to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Japan and South Korea.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Super Typhoon Chaba was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 126.5°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) west-northwest of Okinawa.  Chaba was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Typhoon Chaba is a compact well organized storm.  It has a clear circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Additional rainbands are rotating around the core of Typhoon Chaba.  Thunderstorms at the core of Chaba are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass out in all directions.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Chaba is 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.9.  These indices indicate that Typhoon Chaba is stronger, but slightly smaller than Hurricane Matthew which is over the Caribbean Sea.

Although Typhoon Chaba is still in a very favorable environment, it has probably peaked in intensity.  Chaba was the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale earlier today.  Chaba is currently moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Chaba is likely to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.  In about a day or so, Chaba will move over cooler SSTs.  In addition, when Chaba moves farther north it will move closer to the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  A combination of cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear will increase the rate at which Typhoon Chaba will weaken.

Chaba is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon toward the north.  That general motion is expected to continue for about another 24 hours.  In about a day or so the westerly winds of the middle latitudes are expected to turn Chaba quickly toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Chaba will pass west of the northern Ryukyu Islands.  Chaba could be near Jeju, South Korea and western Kyushu in 24 hours.

Chaba is a very strong typhoon.  Although it will weaken, Typhoon Chaba will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of South Korea and Japan.

Powerful Typhoon Chaba Passing South of Okinawa

Powerful Typhoon Chaba is passing south of Okinawa.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Chaba was located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 127.3°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south of Okinawa.  Chaba was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Chaba is very well organized.  Chaba has a distinct circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Other rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  The thunderstorms in the core are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass to the north of Typhoon Chaba.

Typhoon Chaba is moving through a very favorable environment.  Chaba is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Chaba could intensify a little more during the next 12 to 24 hours.  When Chaba moves farther north, an upper level trough over eastern China will cause more vertical wind shear.  Increased wind shear and cooler SSTs will weaken the typhoon.

Typhoon Chaba is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  Chaba will gradually start to move more toward the north.  In about 36 hours the upper level trough over eastern China will begin to steer Typhoon Chaba toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Chaba will move through the Ryukyu Islands southwest of Okinawa during the next 24 hours.  Chaba would be southwest of Kyushu in about 36 hours.

Chaba is a powerful typhoon and it will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa.

Tropical Storm Chaba Organizes and Moves Toward Okinawa

Tropical Storm Chaba strengthened on Thursday as it started to move toward Okinawa.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Chaba was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 138.6°E which put it about 1145 miles (1850 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Chaba was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Chaba showed signs of better organization on Thursday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western and south sides of the circulation.  Additional bands of thunderstorms were forming on the southern and eastern side of Tropical Storm Chaba.  Thunderstorms near the core of Chaba were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass out to the west, south and east of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Chaba is moving into an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the north of Chaba is generating easterly winds which are blowing across the northern portion of the tropical storm.  However, those winds are not causing significant vertical wind shear.  The combination of warm SSTs and little vertical wind shear should allow Tropical Storm Chaba to intensify steadily during the next several days.  It could become a typhoon within 24 to 48 hours.  There is a chance that Chaba could become the equivalent of a major hurricane in three or four days.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Chaba is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue in the short term.  When Chaba gets a little closer to the western end of the ridge, it will start to move toward the northwest and when Chaba reaches the western end of the ridge it will turn toward the north.  On it anticipated track Tropical Storm Chaba could be approaching Okinawa and the Ryukyu islands in about three days.  It could be a powerful typhoon at that time.

Powerful Typhoon Megi Nearing Landfall on Taiwan

Powerful Typhoon Megi is within a few hours of making landfall on the east coast of Taiwan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Megi was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 122.6°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Megi was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Megi is a large powerful typhoon and it is the equivalent of a major hurricane.  It has a big circular eye with a diameter of about 60 miles (95 km).  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center and winds to tropical storm force extend out over 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Megi is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 21.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 41.7.  Those indices suggest that Typhoon Megi is capable of causing widespread major wind damage.  The HII for Typhoon Megi is the same as the HII for Hurricane Rita when it made landfall in Louisiana in 2005.  The HSI for Megi is slightly smaller than the HSI for Rita.  Thus, Typhoon Megi is as intense as Hurricane Rita was when it made landfall, but Megi is slightly smaller than Rita was in 2005.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Megi toward the northwest.  Typhoon Megi will make landfall on the east coast of Taiwan near Hualien in a few hours.  Megi will cross Taiwan and it will make a second landfall on the east coast of China near Quanzhou and Xiamen in about 24 hours.  Typhoon Megi will bring strong winds and very heavy rain to the northern two thirds of Taiwan.  The heavy rain will create a serious risk for flash flooding.  Megi will weaken as it crosses Taiwan,   Typhoon Megi will also bring gusty winds and heavy rain when it reaches the east coast of China.  Typhoon Meranti caused serious damage in parts of Fujian province and Typhoon Megi will bring heavy rain to some of those same areas.  The northern side of Typhoon Megi may also bring gusty winds to the southernmost Ryukyu Islands.

Typhoon Megi Strengthens As It Moves Closer to Taiwan

Typhoon Megi strengthened quickly on Saturday as it moved steadily closer to Taiwan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Megi was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 131.0°E which put it about 685 miles (1105 km) east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Megi was moving toward the west northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Megi is a large well organized typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out more than 200 miles (320 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Megi is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 36.5.

The circulation of Typhoon Megi is very symmetrical.  Numerous bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the center.  A circular eye appears to be forming at the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms near the center and in the rainbands are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out large quantities of mass in all directions.

Typhoon Megi is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Megi is likely to continue to intensify and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday.

Typhoon Megi is moving southwest of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Megi will approach Taiwan in about 48 hours.

Typhoon Megi is large and dangerous typhoon.  It is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Taiwan.

Tropical Storm Megi Forms West of the Marianas

Tropical Storm Megi formed west of the Marianas on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Megi was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 137.1°E which put it about 1160 miles (1870 km) east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Megi was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Megi is still organizing.  A distinct center of circulation is still consolidating.  There are more thunderstorms south and east of the center of circulation, but bands of thunderstorms are beginning to develop in other quadrants of the storm.  The thunderstorms closer to the center are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  Outflow channels could be developing to the northwest and southeast of Tropical Storm Megi.

Tropical Storm Megi is moving into an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are not very strong and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Megi is likely to continue to intensify while the circulation becomes better organized.  Once a well formed core develops at the center of Megi, it could intensify more rapidly.  Tropical Storm Megi is likely to become a typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Megi is moving along the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge, which is steering it toward the west.  A westerly or west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Megi could approach Taiwan in about three days.  Megi is likely to be a typhoon at that time.

Typhoon Malakas Turns Toward Japan

Typhoon Malakas made the expected northeast turn toward Japan on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Malakas was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 123.8°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) west of Okinawa.  Malakas was moving toward the northeast at 11 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

The structure of Typhoon Malakas is slowly changing as it moves toward the north and encounters a little more wind shear.  Malakas still has an eye, but the thunderstorms around the eyewall are not strong as they were 24 hours ago and a few small breaks may be developing in the eyewall.  There are still a number of rainbands spiraling around the typhoon.  The core of Typhoon Malakas is still generating upper level divergence.  Overall, Malakas is still a well organized, if weaker, typhoon.

Typhoon Malakas has moved around the western end of a subtropical ridge and it has turned toward the northeast.  An upper level trough west of Japan will steer Malakas toward the northeast at a faster speed on Sunday.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Malakas will approach southwestern Kyushu in about 36 hours,  It will bring strong wind and heavy rain to southwestern Japan in about two days.

Strong Typhoon Malakas Turns North Toward Southernmost Ryukyu Islands

Strong Typhoon Malakas made the expected turn toward the north on Friday and it began to move parallel to the east coast of Taiwan toward the southwesternmost Ryukyu Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Malakas was located at latitude 23.4°N and longitude 123.0°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) southwest of Ishigaki, Japan.  Malakas was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Malakas is a strong well organized typhoon.  It has a well formed eye at the center of circulation surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the core of Malakas and there are more thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) in all directions from the center of circulation.  The upper level divergence is strongest to the south of Typhoon Malakas.

Typhoon Malakas is in a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are not too strong and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Malakas could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.  When Typhoon Malakas moves farther north, it will move over cooler SSTs.  In addition there is an upper level trough over eastern China which will cause southwesterly winds and increasing vertical wind shear when Malakas gets farther north.

Typhoon Malakas is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge and it is likely to continue to move north for another 24 hours or so.  In about a day, the upper level trough over eastern China will start to turn Malakas toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Malakas could approach southwestern Kyushu in about three days.

The center of Typhoon Malakas is passing east of Taiwan.  Some of the rainbands in the western part of the circulation will move over Taiwan, but the core of the typhoon where the strongest wind is occurring will stay east of there.  The center of Malakas will pass west of Ishigaki and Okinawa, but it could move over some of the smaller islands at the very southwestern end of the Ryukyu Islands.  Malakas could cause significant damage on those islands.