Tag Archives: Cabo Corrientes

Tropical Storm Lorena Forms, Watch Issued for Mexico

Tropical Storm Lorena formed south of Mexico on Tuesday and a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for a portion of the coast.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 100.4°W which put it about 275 miles (440 km) south-southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed in a cluster of thunderstorms south of Mexico on Tuesday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Lorena.  The circulation around Lorena was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were curling around the western side of the center of circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level ridge over Mexico was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they may have been the reason why the bands were stronger in the western half of  Tropical Storm Lorena.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause some vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  The shear is likely to slow the rate at which Tropical Storm Lorena intensifies.  Lorena could move near the west coast of Mexico.  If the center moves near the coast, then the circulation could draw some drier air into the tropical storm.  The drier would likely cause Tropical Storm Lorena to weaken.  If the center of Lorena remains west of the coast of Mexico, then it could strengthen into a hurricane later this week.

A ridge over Mexico will steer Tropical Storm Lorena toward the northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Lorena could be near the west coast of Mexico by Wednesday night.  That is the reason the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for that portion of the coast.  Lorena could approach Baja California in four or five days.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Kiko was weakening slowly well east of Hawaii and Tropical Depression Fourteen-E developed south of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 125.0°W which put it about 1060 miles (1705 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 108.2°W which put it about 720 miles (1235 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  it was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Bud Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Bud rapidly intensified Monday into a major hurricane southwest of Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Bud was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 106.8°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

The circulation around Hurricane Bud is very well organized.  A circular eye exists at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in the ring of storms.  A number of bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  The overall circulation is quite symmetrical and there are rainbands in all quadrants of Hurricane Bud.  Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

Hurricane Bud exhibits all of the characteristics of a well organized hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bud is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.5.

Hurricane Bud will move through an environment favorable for a major hurricane for another 12 to 24 hours.  Bud is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, but the Sea Surface Temperature of the water ahead of the hurricane is cooler.  Hurricane Bud will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Bud could intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours, because of little shear.  However, Bud is likely to weaken after that, when it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Bud is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the hurricane toward the northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  Bud is forecast to turn more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane Bud is expected to remain west of the west coast of Mexico.  Bud could approach the southern part of Baja California in about four days.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Aletta weakened to a tropical depression.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Aletta was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 117.8°W which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Aletta was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Bud Quickly Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Bud quickly strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Bud was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 104.2°W which put it about 365 miles (590 km) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.

Hurricane Bud strengthened quickly and the circulation exhibited the structure of a hurricane.  An eye formed at the center of circulation, although the eye was obscured intermittently by clouds.  A nearly complete ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Bud.  Most of the stronger rainbands were occurring in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds near the core of Bud were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the pressure to decrease rapidly, which generated a stronger pressure gradient force and higher wind speeds.

Most of the stronger winds were occurring on the eastern side of Hurricane Bud.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) to the east of the center.  The large area of tropical storm force winds on the eastern side of Hurricane Bud is the reason the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the west coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Bud will continue to move through a very favorable environment for several more days.  Bud will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Bud will move through a region where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Bud will strengthen more and it could intensify rapidly during the next day or two.  Bud could strengthen into a major hurricane on Monday or Tuesday.

Hurricane Bud is moving near the western end of a ridge over Mexico.  The ridge is steering Bud toward the northwest  and that motion is forecast to continue for another day or two.  Hurricane Bud is likely to move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Bud will remain west of the west coast of Mexico.  Bud could approach the southern end of Baja California in four days.

Even though the center of Hurricane Bud is likely to remain west of the west coast of Mexico, some of the outer rainbands could move over parts of western Mexico.  Bud could bring gusty winds to places near the coast.  In addition Hurricane Bud could drop locally heavy rain in those areas and flash flooding will be possible.  Bud is likely to weaken before it reaches Baja California, but it could also bring gusty winds and heavy rains to that region later this week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Aletta continued to weaken over cooler water.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 115.7°W which put it about 575 miles (925 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Aletta was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.