Tag Archives: Hurricane Bud

Hurricane Bud Weakens, Watch Issued for Baja California

Hurricane Bud weakened significantly on Tuesday, but it prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Bud was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 108.6°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas.

Hurricane Bud weakened to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  The center of Hurricane Bud was over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 27°C, but much of the northern half of the circulation was over cooler water.  The slow movement of Bud may have also allowed the winds to mix cooler water to the surface.  Thunderstorms were not as tall and the bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring mainly south and east of the center of Hurricane Bud.

Hurricane Bud is forecast to spin down slowly during the next several days.  Cooler water at the surface of the ocean is not likely to supply sufficient energy to maintain the circulation.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear, but the lack of shear will be less important than effects of the cooler water.  The lack of stronger thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation will limit the downdrafts that could transport stronger winds to the surface.  Hurricane Bud could weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday if new thunderstorms do not form in the core of the circulation.

A ridge in the middle troposphere over the southwestern U.S. almost blocked the forward motion of Hurricane Bud on Tuesday.  Bud moved slowly toward the north-northwest.  A slow motion toward the north-northwest is forecast to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  After that time a trough over the Pacific Ocean is forecast to push the ridge eastward.  When the trough approaches, stronger southerly winds will steer Bud northward more quickly.  On its anticipated track Bud is forecast to approach the southern tip of Baja California in 36 to 48 hours.

Hurricane Bud is likely to be a tropical storm when it nears Baja California.  Bud will bring gusty winds, but the bigger risk will be locally heavy rain.  Heavy rain falling on steep terrain could cause flash floods.  Bud or its remnants could also bring rain to parts of the southwestern U.S.

Bud Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Bud rapidly intensified Monday into a major hurricane southwest of Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Bud was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 106.8°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

The circulation around Hurricane Bud is very well organized.  A circular eye exists at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in the ring of storms.  A number of bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  The overall circulation is quite symmetrical and there are rainbands in all quadrants of Hurricane Bud.  Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

Hurricane Bud exhibits all of the characteristics of a well organized hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bud is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.5.

Hurricane Bud will move through an environment favorable for a major hurricane for another 12 to 24 hours.  Bud is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, but the Sea Surface Temperature of the water ahead of the hurricane is cooler.  Hurricane Bud will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Bud could intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours, because of little shear.  However, Bud is likely to weaken after that, when it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Bud is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the hurricane toward the northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  Bud is forecast to turn more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane Bud is expected to remain west of the west coast of Mexico.  Bud could approach the southern part of Baja California in about four days.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Aletta weakened to a tropical depression.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Aletta was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 117.8°W which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Aletta was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Bud Quickly Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Bud quickly strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Bud was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 104.2°W which put it about 365 miles (590 km) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.

Hurricane Bud strengthened quickly and the circulation exhibited the structure of a hurricane.  An eye formed at the center of circulation, although the eye was obscured intermittently by clouds.  A nearly complete ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Bud.  Most of the stronger rainbands were occurring in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds near the core of Bud were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the pressure to decrease rapidly, which generated a stronger pressure gradient force and higher wind speeds.

Most of the stronger winds were occurring on the eastern side of Hurricane Bud.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) to the east of the center.  The large area of tropical storm force winds on the eastern side of Hurricane Bud is the reason the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the west coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Bud will continue to move through a very favorable environment for several more days.  Bud will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Bud will move through a region where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Bud will strengthen more and it could intensify rapidly during the next day or two.  Bud could strengthen into a major hurricane on Monday or Tuesday.

Hurricane Bud is moving near the western end of a ridge over Mexico.  The ridge is steering Bud toward the northwest  and that motion is forecast to continue for another day or two.  Hurricane Bud is likely to move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Bud will remain west of the west coast of Mexico.  Bud could approach the southern end of Baja California in four days.

Even though the center of Hurricane Bud is likely to remain west of the west coast of Mexico, some of the outer rainbands could move over parts of western Mexico.  Bud could bring gusty winds to places near the coast.  In addition Hurricane Bud could drop locally heavy rain in those areas and flash flooding will be possible.  Bud is likely to weaken before it reaches Baja California, but it could also bring gusty winds and heavy rains to that region later this week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Aletta continued to weaken over cooler water.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 115.7°W which put it about 575 miles (925 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Aletta was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.