Tag Archives: Rota

Typhoon Koinu Lingers Near Hong Kong

Typhoon Koinu lingered over the Western North Pacific Ocean near Hong Kong on Saturday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Koinu was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 114.4°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) south-southeast of Hong Kong. Koinu was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Typhoon Koinu weakened gradually on Saturday as it lingered near Hong Kong. Since Koinu moved very slowly, the strong winds in the lower atmosphere mixed cooler water to the surface of the ocean. Koinu was unable to extract as much energy from the cooler water and the typhoon weakened. Thunderstorms in Typhoon Koinu did not rise quite as high into the atmosphere.

Even though Typhoon Koinu weakened on Saturday, it still exhibited a well organized circulation. A very small eye was present at the center of Koinu’s circulation. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall, and concentric eyewalls could be developing. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the small core of Typhoon Koinu. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Koinu decreased as Koinu gradually weakened. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Koinu’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Koinu was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.6. and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.1.

Typhoon Koinu will move through an environment somewhat unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Koinu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over China. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, strong winds in the lower atmosphere will continue to mix cooler water to the surface of the ocean. In addition, the circulation around the northern side of Typhoon Koinu could draw in some drier air from China. Typhoon Koinu is likely to continue to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours due to the mix of cooler water to the surface of the ocean.

Typhoon Koinu will move will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over eastern Asia. The high pressure system will steer Koinu slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center Typhoon Koinu will move south of Hong Kong on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 15W strengthened to Tropical Storm Bolaven east-southeast of Guam. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bolaven was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 152.9°E which put it about 630 miles (1020 km) east-southeast of Guam. Bolaven was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb. Typhoon Watches were in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

Typhoon Mawar Hits Guam

Typhoon Mawar hit Guam early on Wednesday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 144.9°E which put it about 20 miles (30 km) east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam. Mawar was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Guam and Rota. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan. Typhoon Watches were also in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

Powerful Typhoon Mawar brought strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to Guam early on Wednesday. A weather station at the Guam International Airport (PGUM) reported a sustained wind speed of 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h) and a wind gust of 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h). Mawar was also bringing strong winds and rain to Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

Typhoon Mawar was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it hit Guam. The size of the circulation around Typhoon Mawar increased when an eyewall replacement cycle occurred in the the core of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Typhoon Mawar. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (225 km) from the center of Typhoon Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.1. Mawar was not quite as strong as Hurricane Ida was when Ida hit Southeast Louisiana in 2021, but Mawar was bigger than Ida was.

Typhoon Mawar was in the latter stages of an eyewall replacement cycle when it hit Guam on early on Wednesday. A small circular eye was at the center of Mawar’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the core of Mawar’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The removal of mass continue to caused the surface pressure to remain low.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Mawar could intensity during the next 24 hours after it completes the current eyewall replacement cycle.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the southern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will move away from the Marianas later today. Mawar will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan during the next few hours. Typhoon Mawar is capable of causing regional severe damage in Guam. Widespread power outages are possible. Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect for Guam. Mawar will also cause a destructive storm surge along the coast of Guam. Weather conditions in the Marianas will improve slowly when the core of Typhoon Mawar moves farther to the west.

Powerful Typhoon Mawar Approaches Guam

Powerful Typhoon Mawar was approaching Guam on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 145.8°E which put it about 110 miles (175 km) southeast of Guam. Mawar was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Guam and Rota. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan. Typhoon Watches were also in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

Typhoon Mawar strengthened to the equivalent of a strong Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Mawar’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the core of Mawar’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The removal of mass continue to caused the surface pressure to remain low.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Mawar increased as Mawar appeared to go through a quick eyewall replacement cycle. Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Typhoon Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.9. Mawar was similar in intensity to Hurricane Ian when Ian hit Southwest Florida in 2022. Typhoon Mawar was a little smaller than Hurricane Ian was.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Mawar could intensity a little more during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then another eyewall replacement cycle could begin. Another eyewall replacement cycle would cause Typhoon Mawar to weaken temporarily.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the southern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the core of Typhoon Mawar will reach Guam in 12 hours. Mawar will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the Marianas. Typhoon Mawar will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. The core of Mawar with the strongest winds could move over Guam. Typhoon Mawar will be capable of causing regional severe damage when it reaches Guam. Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect for Guam. Mawar will also cause a destructive storm surge along the coast of Guam. The subtropical high pressure system will steer Typhoon Mawar more toward the west-northwest after it moves west of Guam.

Typhoon Mawar Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Typhoon Mawar rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Guam on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 146.7°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) south-southeast of Guam. Mawar was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Guam and Rota. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan. Typhoon Watches were also in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

Typhoon Mawar rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday. A small circular eye was present at the center of Mawar’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the core of Mawar’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The removal of mass continue to cause the surface pressure to decrease quickly.

The circulation around Typhoon Mawar was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Typhoon Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.4. Mawar was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Mawar is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Mawar to weaken temporarily.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will approach Guam in than 24 hours. Mawar is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the Marianas. Typhoon Mawar will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Mawar will be capable of causing regional severe damage when it reaches Guam. Typhoon Mawar will start to move south of a subtropical high pressure system when it approaches the Marianas. The subtropical high will steer Mawar more toward the west-northwest later this week.

Typhoon Mawar Prompts Warning for Guam

Typhoon Mawar prompted the issuance of a Typhoon Warning for Guam on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 146.8°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) south-southeast of Guam. Mawar was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Typhoon Warning were in effect for Guam and Rota. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan. Typhoon Watches were also in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

Typhoon Mawar continued to intensify on Monday morning. A small circular eye formed at the center of Mawar’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the core of Mawar’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Mawar was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (190 km) from the center of Typhoon Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0. Mawar was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Mawar will intensify during the next 36 hours. Mawar could intensify more rapidly at times. Typhoon Mawar is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will approach Guam in 36 hours. Mawar could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the Marianas. Typhoon Mawar will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Mawar will move south of a subtropical high pressure system when it approaches the Marianas. The subtropical high will steer Mawar more toward the west-northwest later this week.

Mawar Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Mawar strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Guam on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 8.3°N and longitude 148.1°E which put it about 455 miles (735 km) south-southeast of Guam. Mawar was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Typhoon Watches were in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

The circulation around Typhoon Mawar exhibited better organization on Sunday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern, western and southern sides of the center of Mawar’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center. Storms near the center of circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Typhoon Mawar.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Mawar will intensify during the next 48 hours. Mawar could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form. Typhoon Mawar could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the north-northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will approach the Marianas in 48 hours. Mawar could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the Marianas. Typhoon Mawar will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Mawar Develops South-southeast of Guam

Tropical Storm Mawar developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Guam on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Mawar was located at latitude 6.4°N and longitude 149.1°E which put it about 595 miles (960 km) south-southeast of Guam. Mawar was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Typhoon Watches were in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

Former Tropical Depression 02W strengthened on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Mawar. The circulation around Tropical Storm Mawar was organizing quickly. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Mawar’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Mawar.

Tropical Storm Mawar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Mawar will intensify during the next 48 hours. Mawar could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form. Tropical Storm Mawar is likely to strengthen to a typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Mawar will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the north-northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Mawar will affect Pulawat during the next 24 hours. Mawar will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Pulawat. Tropical Storm Mawar will approach the Marianas in 72 hours. Mawar will be a typhoon when it approaches the Marianas, which is why Typhoon Watches were issued for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Mindulle Brings Wind and Rain to Marianas, Dianmu Hits Vietnam

Tropical Storm Mindulle brought wind and rain to the Marianas on Thursday and Tropical Storm Dianmu hit Vietnam. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Mindulle was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 142.3°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) west-northwest of Guam. Mindulle moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Storm Mindulle brought wind and rain to the Marianas including Guam on Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Mindulle was intensifying as it moved across the Marianas. More thunderstorms developed about the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving the center of Tropical Storm Mindulle. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Mindulle. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northeastern quadrant to Mindulle.

Tropical Storm Mindulle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days. Mindulle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Mindulle will continue to intensify during the next 36 hours. Mindulle could strengthen to a typhoon in 24 hours. Mindulle could intensify more rapidly after an inner core becomes more well developed. It could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Mindulle will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Mindulle toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mindulle will move quickly away from the Marianas. Mindulle could approach the Ryukyu Islands in a few days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Dianmu bought wind and rain to central Vietnam. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Dianmu was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 108.3°E which put it about 15 miles (25 km) southeast of Tam Ky, Vietnam. Dianmu was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb. Tropical Storm Dianmu will weaken as it moves inlands over Southeast Asia. Dianmu will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to central Vietnam, southern Laos and northern Cambodia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Forms Southeast of Guam, Warning Issued

Tropical Depression 06W formed southeast of Guam on Sunday night and a Tropical Storm Warning was issued for Guam. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression 06W was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 146.0°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) southeast of Guam. Tropical Depression 06W was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for Guam. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Rota.

A circulation center developed in a cluster of thunderstorms southeast of Guam on Sunday night and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Depression 06W. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression 06W was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of the tropical depression. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Tropical Depression 06W began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression 06W will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. The depression will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move south of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Depression 06W. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The tropical depression will move into an area where drier air is sinking toward the surface. The drier air will limit the formation of thunderstorms on the western side of the circulation and it will inhibit intensification. Tropical Depression 06W is forecast to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression 06W will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer the depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression 06W will pass near Guam in 12 hours. The tropical depression will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Guam. It will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Storm Kammuri Passes South of Guam

Tropical Storm Kammuri passed south of Guam on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kammuri was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 141.8°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) southwest of Guam.  Kammuri was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.  The Tropical Storm Warnings for Guam, Rota, Saipan and Tinian were discontinued.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Kammuri exhibited greater organization on Tuesday.  Rainbands around the center of circulation were more circular.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and west of the tropical storm.  There were also more thunderstorms in bands north and west of the center of Kammuri.  Bands southeast of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The wind field around Tropical Storm Kammuri was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out farther in the northern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (340 km) to the northeast of the center of Kammuri.  In contrast, tropical storm force winds only extended out 75 miles (120 km) to the southeast of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Kammuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will slow the rate of intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Kammuri from getting stronger.  Kammuri is likely to intensify into a typhoon during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western Pacific Ocean during the next 48 to 72 hours.  The ridge will steer Kammuri toward the northwest.  A second high pressure system will move eastward from Asia in about three days.  The second high will block Tropical Storm Kammuri from moving any farther toward the north and the high will steer Kammuri toward the west during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kammuri will gradually move closer to the Philippines.

Elsewhere, over the South Pacific Ocean near Vanuatu vertical wind shear weakened Tropical Cyclone Rita.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rita was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 169.0°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Rita was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.