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Ian Intensifies to a Hurricane, Watch Issued for Tampa

Former Tropical Storm Ian intensified to a hurricane during Sunday night and a Hurricane Watch was issued for the area around Tampa, Florida. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 82.4°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west-southwest of Grand Cayman. Ian was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Grand Cayman and for the Cuban provinces of Isla Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West including the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Chokoloskee, Florida. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

Former Tropical Storm Ian rapidly intensified to a hurricane during Sunday night. An eye was forming at the center of Ian’s circulation. The developing eye was surrounded by ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Ian. Storms near the center of circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Ian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Ian’ circulation.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Ian is likely to intensify rapidly during the next 36 hours. Ian is likely to intensify to a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hurricane Ian could intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by Wednesday.

Hurricane Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the northwest during the next 12 hours. Ian will move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian will pass west of Grand Cayman on Monday afternoon. Ian could be near western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Hurricane Ian could be a major hurricane when it approaches western Cuba. Ian could be southwest of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Ian will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ian will be capable of causing regional major damage in western Cuba. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

The steering currents could weaken on Wednesday. If the steering currents weaken, the the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg could experience a prolonged period of strong winds even if the center of Hurricane Ian moves west of Tampa. When the center of Ian is west of Tampa, the winds will blow from the south in the area around Tampa. Southerly winds will push water into Tampa Bay and a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) is possible.

Tropical Storm Ian Strengthens South of Grand Cayman

Tropical Storm Ian strengthened south of Grand Cayman on Sunday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 81.4°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south of Grand Cayman. Ian was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Grand Cayman and for the Cuban provinces of Isla Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West including the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Chokoloskee, Florida. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

Tropical Storm Ian began to intensify quickly on Sunday evening. Microwave satellite images indicated that an eye was forming at the center of Ian’s circulation. The developing eye was surrounded by broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ian. Storms near the center of circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ian’ circulation.

Tropical Storm Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Ian is likely to intensify rapidly during the next 36 hours. Ian is likely to strengthen to a hurricane during the next 12 hours. Ian is likely to intensify to a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. Ian will move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Ian will pass west of Grand Cayman on Monday. Ian could be near western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Ian could be a major hurricane when it approaches western Cuba. Ian could be southwest of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday afternoon.

Elsa Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened back to a hurricane on Tuesday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Elsa was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 83.1°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Flamingo to Egmont Key and from the Steinhatchee River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, and Ft. Myers. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened gradually throughout the day on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be forming at the center of Elsa. Storms near near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase. The distribution of thunderstorms around Hurricane Elsa remained asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Elsa. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Elsa.

Hurricane Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Additional upper level divergence could cause the surface pressure to continue to decrease. Hurricane Elsa could intensify a little more on Tuesday night.

Hurricane Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Elsa toward the north on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa will turn toward the northeast on Wednesday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass just to the west of Tampa on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa could make landfall near Cedar Key on Wednesday. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Hurricane Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. After the center of Elsa moves north of Tampa, southwesterly winds will push water into Tampa Bay which could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters). Hurricane Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) along other parts of the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near Cedar Key when the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in Florida and southeastern Georgia.

Hurricane Watch Issued for Florida for Tropical Storm Elsa

A Hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida because of Tropical Storm Elsa. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 24.1°N and longitude 82.4°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Key West, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Egmont Key to Steinhatchee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa was southwest of Key West, Florida on Tuesday morning. The National Weather Service office in Key West reported a wind gust of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The distribution of thunderstorms around Elsa continued to be asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Elsa. Bands on the western side of the storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center or Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Additional upper level divergence could cause the surface pressure to decrease on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify on Tuesday and there is a chance that Elsa could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the north on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Elsa will turn toward the northeast on Wednesday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass west of the Key West on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) in Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in the Florida Keys and on the Florida peninsula. Elsa will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of Cuba as rainbands on the southern side of the circulation move across the regions

Tropical Storm Elsa Crosses Cuba

Tropical Storm Elsa moved across Cuba during Monday afternoon and evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 82.3°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Key West, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa moved across western Cuba during Monday afternoon and evening. The center passed just to the east of Havana before it moved over water north of Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa continued to exhibit an organized circulation on satellite and radar imagery even after it spent half a day over land. A reconnaissance plane found sustained winds of 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) over water north of Cuba. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Elsa. Strong thunderstorms were occurring in bands near south Florida and south of Cuba. Storms near the center of Tropical Storm Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify on Tuesday and there is a chance that Elsa could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the north-northwest during the next few hours. Elsa will move more toward the north on Tuesday. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass west of the Florida Keys on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) in Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in the Florida Keys and on the Florida peninsula. Elsa will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of Cuba as rainbands on the southern side of the circulation move across the regions

Tropical Storm Elsa Churns South of Cuba

Tropical Storm Elsa was churning south of Cuba on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 81.2°W which put it about 20 miles (35 km) east-southeast of Cayo Largo, Cuba. Elsa was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas and for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Suwannee River, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warnings included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, Artmemisa. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay and for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River, Florida to Indian Pass, Florida.

Tropical Storm Elsa exhibited a little more organization on Monday morning. More thunderstorms formed north and east of the center of Elsa. However, the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the east side of Tropical Storm Elsa. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of Elsa.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Elsa could strengthen a little before it reaches Cuba. Elsa will weaken when the center crosses Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa could regain some strengthen when it moves over warm water southwest of the Florida Keys, but the upper level ridge will continue to cause vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the northwest during the next few hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Elsa will make landfall on the south coast of Cuba southeast of Havana in a few hours. The center of Elsa will pass west of the Florida Keys on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet ( two meters) along the southern coast of Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A high storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall.

Tropical Storm Elsa Drops Heavy Rain on Cuba and Jamaica

Tropical Storm Elsa dropped heavy rain over Cuba and Jamaica on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 77.9°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) west of Cabo Cruz, Cuba. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay, and for the portion of the coast from from Flamingo to Anclote River, Florida including Tampa Bay. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Jamaica and for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Matanzas, Maybeque, and Havana. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Cayman Brac, Little Cayman and the Cuban province of Artemisa.

Tropical Storm Elsa exhibited organization on visible satellite images and images from weather radars in southeastern Cuba. However, reconnaissance planes flying through Elsa on Sunday morning reported that the tropical storm was not as organized as it appeared to be on satellite and radar images. The planes found that the maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and that the minimum surface pressure had increased to 1009 mb, which was an usually high pressure for a tropical storm.

The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center of Tropical Storm Elsa. Bands in the northwestern part of Elsa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Air sinking down sides of mountains in southeastern Cuba may have been inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Storms near the center of Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Air on the northern side of Tropical Storm Elsa will pass over Cuba where friction will slow it. However, once Elsa moves west of Jamaica, air converging from the southwest will be able to blow directly toward the center of the tropical storm. A stronger flow of warm humid air from the southwest could provide more energy to the tropical storm. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify on Monday and there is a chance it could strengthen back to a hurricane before the center moves over Cuba. Elsa will weaken when the center crosses Cuba.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will continue to steer Tropical Storm Elsa toward the northwest on Sunday night. Elsa will move more toward the north-northwest on Monday. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Elsa could make landfall on the south coast of Cuba near Cienfuegos on Monday afternoon. Elsa could reach the Florida Keys on Monday night. Elsa will continue to cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain over parts of Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Eta Brings Wind and Rain to Tampa

Tropical Storm Eta brought wind and rain to the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg on Wednesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 28.3°N and longitude 83.4°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) west-northwest of Tampa, Florida. Eta was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Grande to Suwannee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line in Florida to St. Andrews Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Aucilla River, Florida.

Bands revolving around the eastern side of Tropical Storm Eta brought wind and rain to the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg on Wednesday night. One band stretched from Sarasota to Tampa and another band was over Clearwater and Tarpon Springs. Heavy rain was dropping over those areas and there were reports of urban flooding. Since the center of Tropical Eta was west-northwest of Tampa, southwesterly winds were blowing water into Tampa Bay. There were reports of storm surges of several feet around the bay.

An upper level trough over the Central U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Eta toward the northeast on Thursday. On its anticipated track Eta will make landfall between Tarpon Springs and Cedar Key in a few hours. The trough will steer Tropical Storm Eta across northeastern Florida and out over the Atlantic Ocean. Eta could still be a tropical storm when it reaches the Atlantic which prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of northeastern Florida. Tropical Storm Eta could pass southeast of Charleston, South Carolina on Thursday night.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Theta was moving south-southwest of the Azores. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 31.1°N and longitude 31.4°W which put it about 540 miles (865 km) south-southwest of the Azores. Theta was moving toward the east-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Eta Strengthens to a Hurricane, Hurricane Watch for Tampa

A NOAA plane found that former Tropical Storm Eta had strengthened back into a hurricane on Wednesday morning. A Hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida that included Tampa and St. Petersburg. At 7:35 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Eta was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 170 miles (280 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. Eta was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Tampa and St. Petersburg. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, Florida. The Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River, Florida.

Former Storm Eta strengthened back to a hurricane on Wednesday morning, but it appeared to be moving back into a pool of drier air over the Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms increased around the center of Eta when it was over the warm water in the Loop Current on Tuesday, but the thunderstorms were weakening on Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms near the center of Hurricane Eta were not as tall as they were on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of Eta. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the eastern side of Hurricane Eta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles in the western half of the circulation.

Hurricane Eta will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification on Wednesday. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C. An upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation on Wednesday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent Eta from getting stronger. The drier air over the Gulf of Mexico will limit intensification. Hurricane Eta is not likely to intensify much more on Wednesday because of the drier air. The upper level trough will move closer to Eta on Thursday and the wind shear will increase. The shear and drier air will cause Eta to weaken after it makes landfall on the west coast of Florida.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Eta toward the north-northeast during the next 24 to 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Eta could approach Tampa on Wednesday night. The center of Eta is forecast to pass just to the west of Tampa and make landfall north of Tampa. Eta could be near hurricane strength when it passes near Tampa. Southwesterly winds blowing around the east side of Tropical Storm Eta could push water into Tampa Bay. Eta could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters). Hurricane Eta will also drop heavy rain over Central Florida. Floods could occur in that area. Eta could also cause widespread power outages in Central Florida.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Theta churned southwest of the Azores. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 34.7°W which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) southwest of the Azores. Theta was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Storm Eta Turns Back Toward Florida

Tropical Storm Eta tuned back toward Florida on Tuesday evening. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 84.5°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-northwest of the Dry Tortugas. Eta was moving toward the north- northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, Florida. The Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River, Florida.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta exhibited more organization on Tuesday evening. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the the eastern and northern side of the the center of circulation. There were occasional indications that an eye could be forming at the center of Eta. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Eta. There were more thunderstorms in the bands in the northeastern half of Eta. Bands in the southwestern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment more favorable for intensification on Wednesday. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation on Wednesday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Eta from getting stronger. Tropical Storm Eta could strengthen back into a hurricane on Wednesday. The upper level trough will move closer to Eta on Thursday and the wind shear will increase. The shear could get strong enough to cause Eta to weaken.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Eta toward the north-northeast during the next 24 to 48 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Eta will pass west of the Florida Keys on Wednesday. The center of Tropical Storm Eta could approach Tampa on Thursday morning. Eta could be near hurricane strength when it passes near Tampa. Southwesterly winds blowing around the east side of Tropical Storm Eta could push water into Tampa Bay. Eta could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters).

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Subtropical Storm Theta nade a transition to a strong tropical storm. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 35.5°W which put it about 770 miles (1235 km) southwest of the Azores. Theta was moving toward the east-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.