Tag Archives: SH11

Tropical Cyclone Dingani Forms over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Dingani formed over the South Indian Ocean south-southeast of Diego Garcia on Thursday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 88.6°E which put it about 1305 miles (2110 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Dingani was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean strengthened on Thursday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Dingani. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Dingani was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Dingani’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Dingani consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone Dingani was moving under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Dingani’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Dingani will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Dingani could strengthen gradually during the next 36 hours, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger. If the upper level winds get stronger, then Dingani will not intensify.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dingani toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dingani will pass far south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved farther away from Western Australia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 109.3°E which put it about 560 miles (900 km) north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves Away from Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved away from Western Australia on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 112.7°E which put it about 440 miles (710 km) north of Learmonth, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy started to weaken as it moved away from Western Australia on Wednesday morning. Freddy was moving under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over Australia. The upper level ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Freddy to become asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Freddy’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Freddy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over Australia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken during the next 24 hours. The wind shear could lessen when Freddy moves farther west on Friday. If the shear lessens, then Tropical Cyclone Freddy could start to intensify again.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle strengthened over the Coral Sea. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 152.8°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Gabrielle was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is forecast to move toward the southeast and to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 14.1°S and longitude 117.2°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) northwest of Broome, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of Freddy’s circulation. A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’ circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours and it is likely to strengthen rapidly at times. Freddy could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will stay northwest of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Develops Rapidly North of Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy developed rapidly over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia on Monday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 118.4°E which put it about 440 miles (710 km) northwest of Broome, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia strengthened rapidly on Monday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Freddy’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen rapidly at times. Freddy is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will stay north of Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, a Tropical Low (also designated as Invest 94S) was east of Cocos Islands. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 12.5°S and longitude 99.9°E which put it about 210 miles (335 km) east of Cocos Islands. The Tropical Low was moving toward the southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb. The Tropical Low is forecast to turn toward the southwest and to strengthen to a tropical cyclone later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi Moves Toward New Zealand

Tropical Cyclone Dovi moved toward New Zealand on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dovi was located at latitude 30.0°S and longitude 166.3°E which put it about 780 miles (1200 km) northwest of Auckland, New Zealand. Dovi was moving toward the south at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi was located between New Caledonia and New Zealand on Friday morning. There was an eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) at the center of Dovi’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the eastern half of the ring. There were breaks in the northwestern part of the ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Dovi. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Dovi. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi will move into an environment that is unfavorable for a tropical cyclone. Dovi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23˚C. An upper level trough centered east of Australia will produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dovi’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The combination of colder water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Dovi to make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Dovi toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Dovi will move across New Zealand during the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Dovi will be a strong extratropical cyclone when it crosses New Zealand. Dovi will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of New Zealand. The strongest winds and heaviest rain will occur in northern New Zealand.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Dovi intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near the southern end of New Caledonia on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dovi was located at latitude 23.6°S and longitude 166.7°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Dovi was moving toward the southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near the southern end of New Caledonia on Thursday morning. An eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) formed at the center of Dovi’s circulation. The eye of Tropical Cyclone Dovi passed over the Ile des Pins. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dovi’s circulation. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) to the east of the center of Tropical Cyclone Dovi. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dovi toward the south during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dovi will move away from southern New Caledonia. Dovi will continue to cause strong winds and locally heavy rain over southern New Caledonia during the next few hours. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Weather conditions should improve in New Caledonia when Tropical Cyclone Dovi moves farther away. Dovi could approach New Zealand during the weekend as a strong extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Dovi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered east of New Caledonia. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Dovi is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours. Dovi will move into a region where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder and where there will be more vertical wind shear during the weekend. The combination of colder water and more wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Dovi to make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi Strengthens near Loyalty Islands

Tropical Cyclone Dovi strengthened near the Loyalty Islands on Wednesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dovi was located at latitude 21.5°S and longitude 168.3°E which put it about 170 miles (280 km) east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Dovi was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Dovi was located just to the northeast of the island of Mare in the Loyalty Islands. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the center of Dovi. The rainband had not yet wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dovi. Bands in the southern half of Dovi’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dovi.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dovi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered east of New Caledonia. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Dovi will intensify during the next 24 hours. Dovi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dovi toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dovi will move near the southern end of New Caledonia during the next 12 hours. Dovi will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Loyalty Islands including Ouvea, Lifou and Mare. The center of Tropical Cyclone Dovi could be near Ile des Pins in 12 hours. Dovi will begin to affect southern New Caledonia during the next 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Dovi could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moves near the southern end of New Caledonia. Dovi will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi Brings Wind and Rain to Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Dovi brought wind and rain to parts of Vanuatu on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dovi was located at latitude 20.5°S and longitude 169.4°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Dovi was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi brought gusty winds and rain to southern Vanuatu on Wednesday morning. The center of Dovi’s circulation was southwest of Aneityum. Bands on the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Dovi also brought wind and rain to Erromango and Tanna. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Dovi’s circulation, which could represent the initial stage in the formation of an eyewall. Most of the thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in bands in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dovi. Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the northern half of Dovi’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dovi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered east of New Caledonia. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will some moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Dovi will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen rapidly if an inner core with an eye and an eyewall devlops.

Tropical Cyclone Dovi will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dovi toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dovi will move slowly away from Vanuatu. Weather conditions will gradually improve as Dovi moves away. Tropical Cyclone Dovi will be near the Loyalty Islands in 12 hours. The center could pass near Mare. Dovi will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Ouvea, Lifou and Mare. The center of Tropical Cyclone Dovi could be near Ile des Pins in 24 hours. Dovi will begin to affect southern New Caledonia during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Forms near Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone 11P formed near Vanuatu on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 11P was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 168.9°E which put it about 235 miles (380 km) northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone 11P was moving toward the south-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A low pressure system near the island of Tanna strengthened to a tropical cyclone on Tuesday night. More thunderstorms developed in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone 11P. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 11P will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone 11P will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered east of New Caledonia. The ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone 11P is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 11P will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 11P will move slowly away from Vanuatu. The tropical cyclone will be near the Loyalty Islands in 24 hours. The center could pass near Mare. Tropical Cyclone 11P will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Ouvea, Lifou and Mare. The center of Tropical Cyclone could reach southern New Caledonia within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi Strengthens East of Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Kimi strengthened east of Queensland on Sunday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kimi was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 146.6°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia. Kimi was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the Queensland coast from Port Douglas to Lucinda. The Warning includes Cairns, Innisfail and Cardwell. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lucinda to Ayr.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi strengthened as it moved parallel to the east coast of Queensland on Sunday. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology radar at Cairns showed a well defined center of circulation. The center was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Kimi. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Kimi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge east of Australia. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Kimi is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours. Kimi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system east of Australia. The high will steer Kimi toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kimi could approach the coast of Queensland between Innisfail and Cardwell in 24 hours. Kimi could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon or a strong tropical storm when it approaches the coast. Tropical Cyclone Kimi could drop heavy rain over parts of Queensland. The heavy rain could cause flash floods.