Yinxing Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Yinxing strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 129.5°W which put the center about 610 miles (980 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Yinxing was moving toward the northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Yinxing strengthened to a typhoon east of the Philippines on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Typhoon Yinxing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center of Yinxing generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles in the eastern side of Typhoon Yinxing.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Yinxing’s circulation.

Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Yinxing’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Yinxing will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Yinxing will move toward the northern Philippines.  Yinxing could approach northern Luzon in three days.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Jamaica, Hurricane Watch for Cayman Islands

The threat posed by a low pressure system over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica and a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands on Sunday afternoon.  The low pressure system was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 77.1°W which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated a low pressure system over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday afternoon.  The aircraft found that there was a distinct low low level center of circulation in the low pressure system.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of the low pressure system.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were starting to revolve around the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen.  Storms near the center of the low pressure system began to generate upper level divergence.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will intensify during the next 24 hours.  It is likely to become a tropical storm on Monday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will reach Jamaica on Monday night.  It could reach the Cayman Islands on Tuesday afternoon.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Subtropical Storm Patty moved east of the Azores.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located at latitude 37.3°N and longitude 22.3°W which put the center about 280 miles (450 km) east-southeast of Lajes, Azores.  Patty was moving toward the east at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Yinxing Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Yinxing formed east of the Philippines on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Yinxing was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 134.0°W which put the center about 955 miles (1540 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Yinxing was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Sunday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Yinxing.  The circulation around Yinxing was organizing rapidly.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Yinxing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Yinxing generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Yinxing will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Yingxing is likely to strengthen to a typhoon on Monday.

Tropical Storm Yinxing will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Yinxing will move toward the northern Philippines.

Subtropical Storm Patty Moves Across the Azores

Subtropical Storm Patty was moving across the Azores on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located at latitude 37.9°N and longitude 27.8°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) south-southwest of Lajes, Azores.  Patty was moving toward the east at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Azores.

Subtropical Storm Patty strengthened a little as it approached the Azores on Saturday.  However, Patty appeared to be starting to weaken on Saturday night.  The distribution of thunderstorms started to look a little more asymmetrical.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Patty’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Subtropical Storm Patty consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Subtropical Storm Patty remained large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (325 km) in the southern side of Patty’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern side of Subtropical Storm Patty.

Subtropical Storm Patty will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Patty will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 21°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level low.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Patty’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Subtropical Storm Patty is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Subtropical Storm Patty toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Subtropical Storm Patty will continue to move across the Azores during the next 12 hours,  Patty will move east of the Azores later on Sunday.

Subtropical Storm Patty will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Azores during Saturday night and Sunday.  Strong winds could cause localized damage and electricity outages.

 

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Lane

Former Tropical Depression Thirteen-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Lane during Friday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Lane was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 129.5°W which put the center about 1525 miles (2455 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Lane was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around formed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E strengthened during Friday night and the U.S. National Hurricane center designated the system as Tropical Storm Lane.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Lane was asymmetrical.  The inner end of a band of thunderstorms wrapped around the northern side of the center of Lane’s circulation.  Bands in the southern side of Tropical Storm Lane consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Lane generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The strongest winds in Tropical Storm Lane were occurring in the band of thunderstorms north of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force were occurring out to 45 miles (75 km) in the northern side of Lane’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Lane were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Lane will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper trough east of Hawaii.  The upper level ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lane’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Lane could intensify a little more during the next 12 hours.  The upper level trough will cause the vertical wind shear to increase even more on Sunday, which will cause Lane to weaken

Tropical Storm Lane will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the Lane toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lane will move remain far from any land areas.

Subtropical Storm Patty Forms, Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Azores

Subtropical Storm Patty formed over the North Atlantic Ocean on Saturday morning and a Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the Azores. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located at latitude 39.9°N and longitude 34.4°W which put the center about 426 miles (675 km) west-northwest of the Azores.  Patty was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Azores.

A low pressure system at the center of an old occluded extratratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic Ocean was designated as Subtropical Storm Patty by the U.S. National Hurricane Center on Saturday morning.  The circulation around Subtropical Storm Patty was symmetrical.  A clear area like an eye was at the center of Patty’s circulation.  The clear area was surrounded by a ring of showers and low topped thunderstorms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Subtropical Storm Patty.

The circulation around Subtropical Storm Patty was large, since Patty formed at the center of an old occluded extratropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (330 km) in the southern side of Patty’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern side of Subtropical Storm Patty.

Subtropical Storm Patty will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Patty will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 21°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level low that was part of the old occluded extratropical cyclone.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Patty’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Subtropical Storm Patty could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, but it is likely to start to weaken on Sunday.

The upper level trough will steer Subtropical Storm Patty toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Subtropical Storm Patty will reach the western Azores on Saturday night.  Patty will move across the Azores on Sunday.

Subtropical Storm Patty will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Azores during Saturday night and Sunday.  Strong winds could cause localized damage and electricity outages.

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 128.4°W which put the center about 1460 miles (2350 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California strengthened on Saturday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Thirteen-E.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E on Friday afternoon.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the tropical depression.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the depression’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Thirteen-E could intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Kong-rey Moves Over East China Sea

Tropical Storm Kong-rey moved over the East China Sea on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kong-rey was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 121.2°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Wenzhou, China.  Kong-rey was moving toward the north-northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Former Typhoon Kong-rey weakened to a tropical storm as it moved across Taiwan on Thursday.  The mountains in Taiwan significantly disrupted the circulation in the lower levels of Kong-rey.  The circulation in the middle and upper levels of Tropical Storm Kong-rey remained more intact.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring in the eastern side of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Kong-rey consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Kong-rey was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center Kong-rey.

Tropical Storm Kong-rey will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kong-rey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  An upper level trough over eastern China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  In addition, the western side of Tropical Storm Kong-rey will pull drier air over Asia into the tropical storm.  Cooler water, strong vertical wind shear, and drier air will cause Kong-rey to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.  The cooler water and strong wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Kong-rey to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Friday.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Kong-rey toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Kong-rey will move near the coast of Zhejiang during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Storm Kong-rey could approach western Kyushu in 24 hours.

Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Kong-rey will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to coastal parts of Zhejiang on Friday.  Kong-rey could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to western Japan on Saturday.

Typhoon Kong-rey Brings Wind and Rain to Taiwan

Typhoon Kong-rey brought strong winds and heavy rain to Taiwan on Thursday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Kong-rey was located at latitude 23.6°N and longitude 121.1°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) south of Hualien, Taiwan.  Kong-rey was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

The center of Typhoon Kong-rey made landfall on the east coast of Taiwan south of Hualien early on Thursday.  Kong-rey was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) from the center of Typhoon Kong-rey.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kong-rey was 20.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 30.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.9.  Typhoon Kong-rey was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ike when Ike hit Texas in 2008.

Typhoon Kong-rey was producing strong winds over much of Taiwan.  Those winds were capable of causing major damage.  Kong-rey was also dropping heavy rain over much of Taiwan.  The heavy rain in likely to cause flash floods in many locations.

Typhoon Kong-rey will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kong-rey toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours.  An upper level trough over eastern China will turn Kong-rey toward the north-northeast on Friday.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kong-rey will move across Taiwan during the next few hours.  Kong-rey will move over the East China Sea and it will approach the east coast of China in 18 hours.

Typhoon Kong-rey will weaken today as it moves across Taiwan.  Kong-rey is unlikely to intensify when it moves over the East China Sea.  Kong-rey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over eastern China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  More vertical wind shear will cause Kong-rey to continue to weaken after it moves over the East China Sea.

Bands on the western side of Typhoon Kong-rey will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the east coast of China.  Strong winds and locally heavy rain will affect coastal regions in Fujian and Zhejiang.

 

Typhoon Kong-rey Approaches Taiwan

Typhoon Kong-rey was approaching Taiwan on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Kong-rey was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 123.2°E which put the center about 350 miles (565 km) south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Kong-rey was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (2225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 934 mb.

Typhoon Kong-rey went through an eyewall replacement cycle during the past 18 hours.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall.  Concentric eyewalls formed.  The inner eyewall had a diameter of 25 miles (40 km).  The outer eyewall had a diameter of 175 miles (285 km).  The inner eyewall started to weaken after the outer eyewall formed.  Typhoon Kong-rey weakened a little after the eyewall replacement cycle began

A large eye with a diameter of 175 miles (285 km) was at the center of Kong-rey’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the large eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Kong-rey.  Storms near the core of Kong-rey’ circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the large quantities of mass flowing into the center of Typhoon Kong-rey in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The near balance of upper level divergence and lower level convergence of mass caused the surface pressure to increase very gradually.

The eyewall replacement cycle caused the circulation around Typhoon Kong-rey to increase in size.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 260 miles (420 km) from the center of Typhoon Kong-rey.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kong-rey was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 42.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 70.3.  Typhoon Kong-rey was bigger and stronger than Hurricane Ivan was when Ivan made landfall on the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico in 2004.

Typhoon Kong-rey will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Kong-rey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Kong-rey could intensify during the next 12 hours if the large eye starts to contract.

Typhoon Kong-rey will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kong-rey toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kong-rey will reach Taiwan in 18 hours.

Typhoon Kong-rey is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Taiwan.  Kong-rey will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to Taiwan.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods.  Typhoon Kong-rey could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meter)s along the east coast of Taiwan.  Typhoon Kong-rey will be capable of causing extensive major damage in Taiwan.