Tag Archives: Bahamas

Tropical Depression Four

A reconnaissance aircraft found westerly winds in the southeastern side of a low pressure system over the Southeastern Bahamas and was able to close off a center of circulation.  As a result the National Hurricane Center classified the low as Tropical Depression Four (TD4).  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of TD4 was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 72.3°W which put it about 75 miles northeast of Great Inagua Island in the Bahamas and about 560 miles east-southeast of Miami, Florida.  TD4 was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Southeastern Bahamas including The Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, The Inaguas, Mayaguana and the Ragged Islands as well as The Turks and Caicos Islands and the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, The Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador.

A small upper low north of Cuba is causing some wind shear over the western portion of TD4.  On the other hand the Sea Surface Temperatures around The Bahamas are very warm and TD4 is very likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Cristobal and eventually into a hurricane.  Since the center has just formed the motion and future track are still highly uncertain, although a general motion toward the southeastern U.S. seems likely.

Invest 96L

The circulation around the tropical disturbance designated 96L has been disrupted by the mountains on Hispaniola.  There a appears to be a broad low level center near the northern coast of Haiti.  There are several smaller vorticies rotating around within the broader area of low pressure.  The strongest winds are occurring north and east of the center and several reconnaissance flights found winds to tropical storm force north of the center.  The broad center appears to be moving toward the west-northwest at 10-15 m.p.h.   The area of low pressure has produced heavy rain on some of the islands of the northern Caribbean Sea.

It is still possible that 96L could organize into a tropical cyclone as it moves away from Hispaniola.  Once it gets away from the mountains, it will be easier for the flow to consolidate around one primary circulation center.  The Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are very warm around the Bahamas and the upper level winds are not too strong.

There is a large amount of uncertainty about the future track of this system and that will continue until a well defined center of circulation exists.  It appears that the low has been initialized too far to the northeast in some runs of numerical models and that has produced some forecast tracks that are also too far north and east.  It is still possible that this system could head in the general direction of the southeastern U.S.

Development will possibly be slow to occur until the system becomes better organized.  Tropical cyclones can intensify rapidly over the Bahamas and people would be wise to monitor future developments with 96L.