Tag Archives: Madagascar

Tropical Depression Brings Rain to Madagascar

A tropical depression, which is also designated as Invest 93S, brought rain to Madagascar on Saturday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 46.7°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) northwest of Antananaviro, Madagascar. It was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over northern Madagascar strengthened on Saturday and Meteo France La Reunion classified the system as tropical depression. The low pressure system was designated as Invest 93S by some other meteorological agencies. The center of the low pressure system was over Madagascar on Saturday afternoon. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the tropical depression. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical depression. Some of the bands were dropping heavy rain over northern Madagascar and flash floods were possible.

The tropical depression is not likely to strengthen further during the next few hours while it is over Madagascar. The depression will move into an environment favorable for intensification on Sunday when it moves over the Mozambique Channel. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The tropical depression could strengthen to the equivalent of a tropical storm after it moves over the Mozambique Channel.

The tropical depression will move around the northern side of a surface high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the tropical depression will move across northern Madagascar on Saturday night. The center of the depression will move over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday. The depression could approach the coast of Mozambique within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Forecast to Develop, Hit Northern Madagascar

A tropical cyclone is forecast to develop over the South Indian Ocean and to hit northern Madagascar during the weekend. The system is currently a low pressure system designated as Invest 93S. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Invest 93S was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 59.0°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) north-northeast of Mauritius. It was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (60 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system, currently designated as Invest 93S, over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Mauritius is forecast to move west toward northern Madagascar and to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 72 hours. The distribution of thunderstorms around the low pressure system is currently asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms are occurring in bands in the western side of the low pressure system. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consist primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the western half of the system generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the low pressure system.

Invest 93S will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is currently contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. However, the vertical wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent Invest 93S from developing into a tropical cyclone.

Invest 93S will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Invest 93S could reach the coast of northeastern Madagascar within 72 hours. Invest 93S is forecast to be a tropical cyclone when it reaches northern Madagascar. It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar during the weekend. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Jobo Forms North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jobo formed just to the north of Madagascar on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jobo was located at latitude 10.3°S and longitude 49.8°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north of Ansiranana, Madagascar. Jobo was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system north of Madagascar strengthened on Tuesday afternoon and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jobo. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Jobo was asymmetrical. Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the western side of Jobo. Bands on the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the western side of the center of circulation. Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jobo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Jobo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move near the northern part of a small upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be large enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone Jobo from strengthening. Some numerical models are forecasting that Jobo could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Jobo will move north of a surface high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Jobo slowly toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jobo will remain north of Madagascar. The steering currents could weaken later this week and Jobo could stall northwest of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Iman Brings Rain to La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Iman brought rain to La Reunion and Mauritius on Saturday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iman was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 54.5°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) south-southwest of La Reunion. Iman was moving toward the east-southeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

An area of low pressure strengthened on Saturday after it moved over the South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar and Meteo France la Reunion designate the system as Tropical Cyclone Iman. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Iman was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Iman. Bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone consisted of primarily of showers and thunderstorms. Storms east of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Rainbands on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Iman brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to La Reunion and Mauritius. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in areas of steeper terrain.

An upper level trough south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Iman toward the east-southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Iman will move quickly away to the southeast of La Reunion and Mauritius. Weather conditions in those locations will improve on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Iman will move into an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Iman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 27°C. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Iman. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, powerful Tropical Cyclone Habana maintained its intensity south-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 79.2°E which put it about 785 miles (1265 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Habana was moving toward the southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.1.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Moves away from Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Guambe moved away from Mozambique on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 29.1°S and longitude 38.1°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) southeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe appeared to develop concentric eyewalls on Saturday which caused the circulation to weaken. The maximum sustained wind speed decreased when the original, small inner eyewall dissipated. There were fewer thunderstorms around the center of Guambe on Saturday night. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Guambe contained more showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be capable of sustaining a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C, but it will gradually move over colder water. An upper level trough south of Africa will approach Tropical Cyclone Guambe from the west. The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Guambe. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear when they reach Tropical Cyclone Guambe. The combination of more vertical wind shear and colder water will cause the structure of Guambe to being a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Guambe toward the southeast during the next two days. On its anticipated track Guambe will move farther away from Mozambique. Tropical Cyclone Guambe is forecast to pass well to the south of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Weakens Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Faraji weakened southeast of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 1000 miles (1610 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

An upper level low east of Madagascar produced strong northwesterly winds which blew toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Faraji on Friday. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and the winds blew the tops of many of the thunderstorms around Faraji. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Faraji consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Faraji.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. However, the upper level low east of Madagascar will continue to produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will continue to cause the strong vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Faraji will weaken during the next 48 hours..

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the northern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will pass well to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Churns Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Faraji churned southeast of Diego Garcia on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 84.7°E which put it about 1060 miles (1710 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

After intensification to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday, Tropical Cyclone Faraji weakened gradually during the past 48 hours. Even though Faraji weakened, the circulation around the tropical cyclone remained very well organized. A small circular eye was apparent on infrared satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of the circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km from the center of Faraji.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move into an environment that will become less favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level trough east of Madagascar will move toward Tropical Cyclone Faraji. The approaching trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause the wind vertical wind shear to increase. More vertical wind shear will likely cause Faraji to weaken during the next 48 hours..

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the northern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will pass well to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise Crosses Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eloise crossed Madagascar on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 44.3°E which put it about 140 miles (230 km) north of Maintirano, Madagascar. Eloise was moving toward the west-southwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise moved quickly across northern Madagascar on Wednesday. Eloise was emerging over the Mozambique Channel by late Wednesday. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Eloise was relatively intact after its passage over Madagascar. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Eloise. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Eloise will move over water in the Mozambique Channel where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the northern portion of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Eloise will intensify during the next 36 hours and it is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Eloise toward the west-southwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Eloise could approach the coast of Mozambique near Beira in about 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise Makes Landfall in Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall in Madagascar on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 49.6°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) south-southwest of Antalaha, Madagascar. Eloise was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall on the coast of northeastern Madagascar near Antalaha on Tuesday as the equivalent of a strong tropical storm. Eloise strengthened prior to landfall. A ring of strong thunderstorms wrapped around the northern side of the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise and an eye was beginning to form at the center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Eloise toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move across northern Madagascar. The center of Eloise will pass near Mampikony in about 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Eloise could move over the Mozambique Channel near Maintirano in about 36 hours

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will weaken while it moves across Madagascar. Eloise will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern Madagascar. Flash floods could occur, especially in regions of steeper terrain. Tropical Cyclone Eloise could strengthen again when it moves over the Mozambique Channel later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise Develops Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Eloise developed northeast of Mauritius on Sunday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 61.5°E which put it about 605 miles (980 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Eloise was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system northeast of Mauritius strengthened on Sunday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Eloise. The distribution of thunderstorms around Eloise was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Eloise. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Eloise generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Eloise will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern portion of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Eloise could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours despite the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Eloise toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Eloise could approach northern Madagascar in about three days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Joshua moved far to the southeast of Diego Garcia. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joshua was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 89.8°E which put it about 1405 miles (2265 km) southeast of Digeo Garcia. Joshua was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.