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Tropical Storm Elsa Speeds Toward Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Elsa was speeding toward the Windward Islands on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 50.2°W which put it about 780 miles (1255 km) east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Elsa was moving toward the west at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Guadeloupe and Grenada.

The circulation in a tropical wave east-southeast of the Windward Islands exhibited a little more organization on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Elsa. The distribution of thunderstorms around Elsa was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the tropical storm. Bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Elsa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. A rainband appeared to be starting to wrap around the eastern side of the center of circulation. Despite the fact that the strongest thunderstorms were in the southern half of Elsa, the strongest winds were occurring north of the center of circulation. The pressure gradient between the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean and the tropical storm was producing the most force to the north of the center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Elsa. Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to strengthen. If the winds in the lower levels get a little stronger than they are forecast to be, then those winds could push the lower part of Elsa west of the upper half of the tropical storm. If the lower and upper halves of Tropical Storm Elsa’s circulation decouple, then it could weaken back to a tropical wave.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high is forecast to steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will reach the Windward Islands on Friday. Elsa will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the Windward Islands. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Hispaniola on Saturday and it could approach South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico be early next week.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the Windward Islands on Wednesday afternoon because of the forecast intensification of a tropical wave. The National Hurricane Center changed the designation of the tropical wave from Invest 97L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Five when it began issuing advisories on the system. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 43.7°W which put it about 1195 miles (1920 km) east of the Windward Islands. The tropical wave was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Barbados, St. Vincent, the Grenadines, St. Lucia and Martinique.

A tropical wave east of the Windward Islands exhibited more organization on Wednesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five in order to be able to issue Tropical Storm Watches for several of the Windward Islands. The center of the tropical wave continued to be elongated. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing around the elongated center. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical wave. The strongest upper level divergence was to the west of the wave.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27.5°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is forecast to develop into a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high is forecast to steer the tropical wave toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Five could approach the Windward Islands on Friday morning. It is forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the Windward Islands.

Tropical Depression Five Strengthens into Tropical Storm Edouard

Former Tropical Depression Five strengthened into Tropical Storm Edouard northeast of Bermuda on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was located at latitude 37.2°N and longitude 56.9°W which put it about 685 miles (1100 km) south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Edouard was moving toward the northeast at 35 m.p.h. (56 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.  Tropical Storm Edouard became the earliest fifth named storm to form over the Atlantic Ocean during the satellite era since 1966.

Former Tropical Depression Five exhibited greater organization on satellite imagery and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Edouard.  More thunderstorms formed in bands east of the center of circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Edouard consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force were occurring within 60 miles of the center in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Edouard.  The winds in the other parts of Edouard were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Edouard will move through an environment that could allow for a little more intensification during the next 12 hours.  Edouard will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 24°C.  It will move under the southern fringe of the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those winds will blow toward the top of the circulation and they will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The relatively cool water temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will limit future intensification.  Tropical Storm Edouard could get a little stronger on Monday.  Edouard will move over cooler water later on Monday and it will start a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Edouard will move around the northern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Edouard toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Edouard will pass well south of Newfoundland.

Tropical Depression Five Forms West-southwest of Bermuda

Tropical Depression Five formed west-southwest of Bermuda on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Five was located at latitude 31.1°N and longitude 68.7°W which put it about 245 miles (390 km) west-southwest of Bermuda.  The depression was moving toward the east-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Visible satellite images showed that a small low pressure system west-southwest of Bermuda exhibited more organization on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Five.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Five was small but it was fairly well organized.  The depression had a well defined center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center.  Bands in the northwestern part of Tropical Depression Five consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the depression.

Tropical Depression Five will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25.5°C.  It will move under the southern edge of the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent some intensification.  Tropical Depression Five could strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Five will move around the northwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the east-northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Five will move near Bermuda on Saturday night.  The depression could be a tropical storm when it passes by Bermuda.

Hurricane Dorian Brings Powerful Winds to Nova Scotia

Hurricane Dorian brought powerful winds to Nova Scotia on Saturday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 45.0°N and longitude 67.9°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia.  Dorian was moving toward the northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Lower East Pubnico to Brule, Nova Scotia and from Indian Harbour to Hawke’s Bay, Newfoundland. Hurricane Watches were in effect for Prince Edward Island and for the Magdalen Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Prince Edward Island and from Avonport to Lower East Pubnico, Nova Scotia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for New Brunswick from Fundy National Park to Shediac. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Indian Harbour to Stone’s Cove, Newfoundland. Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the portions of the coast from Hawke’s Bay to Fogo Island and from Mutton Bay to Mary’s Harbour.

Hurricane Dorian maintained its intensity and increased in size on Saturday while it sped across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean to the Canadian Maritime provinces.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) on the southern side of Hurricane Dorian.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 300 miles (480 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 26.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.8.  Hurricane Dorian was capable of causing widespread serious damage.

There were reports of wind damage and widespread power outages around Nova Scotia even before the center of Hurricane reached that area.  The large circulation around Dorian brought tropical storm force winds to Nova Scotia a few hours before the center made landfall.  The center of Hurricane Dorian officially made landfall south of Halifax, Nova Scotia on Saturday evening.

Hurricane Dorian had almost completed a transition to a large powerful extratropical cyclone.  That transition contributed to the increase in size of the circulation.  The strongest part of Hurricane Dorian will move across Nova Scotia during the next few hours.  The winds are likely to cause additional damage on Saturday night.  Hurricane Dorian will race across Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island and New Brunswick on Saturday night.  Dorian will move over Newfoundland and southeastern Labrador on Sunday.  Hurricane Dorian has the potential to cause serious damage in all of those locations.

Hurricane Dorian Makes Landfall at Cape Hatteras, Threatens Canadian Maritimes

Hurricane Dorian made an official landfall at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Friday morning and posed a serious threat to the Canadian Maritime provinces.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 36.9°N and longitude 72.7°W which put it about 330 miles (530 km) south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts.  Dorian was moving toward the northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surace pressure was 958 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island, Delaware, and for Chesapeake Bay south of Drum Point.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bar Harbor to Eastport, Maine.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect from Hubbards to Avonport, Nova Scotia.  A Hurricane Watch was issued for Prince Edward Island, Avonport to Hubbards, Nova Scotia, the Magdalen Islands, Parson’s Pond to Indian Harbour, Newfoundland.  Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Prince Edward Island and from Avonport to Hubbards, Nova Scotia.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for New Brunswick from Fundy National Park to Shediac.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Newfoundland from Francois to Boat Harbor.  A Tropical Storm Watch was  issued for the portion of the coast from Parson’s Pond to Triton, and from Indian Harbour to Stone’s Cove, Newfoundland.

The National Hurricane Center determined that the center of Hurricane Dorian passed over Cape Hatteras and identified that as the point of landfall.  Hurricane Dorian has been moving rapidly away from the coast since that time.  Hurricane Dorian remained a large, well organized hurricane.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was apparent on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.2.

Hurricane Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Saturday.  Dorian will start out over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  Dorian will move over cooler water later on Saturday.  An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will contribute to upper level divergence, which may pump out enough mass to allow the surface pressure to decrease.  Hurricane Dorian will start to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone later on Saturday.  The interaction of colder and warmer air could also provide additional energy to the transitioning hurricane.  There is a chance that Hurricane Dorian could strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Dorian rapidly toward the northeast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track, Dorian will pass southeast of Massachusetts on Saturday morning.  Hurricane Dorian could reach Nova Scotia by Saturday afternoon.  Dorian could be one of the strongest hurricanes to affect the Canadian Maritime provinces.  It will be capable of causing widespread serious damage.

Hurricane Dorian Brings Wind and Rain to the Carolinas

Hurricane Dorian brought wind and rain to the Carolinas on Thursday while the center move just off the coast.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 77.4°W which put it about 70 miles southwest of Cape Lookout, North Carolina.  Dorian was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island, Delaware, for Chesapeake Bay south of Drum Point and for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for all of Nova Scotia. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Prince Edward Island, for the Magdalen Islands and for New Brunswick from Fundy National Park to Shediac. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Newfoundland from Francois to Boat Harbor.

Hurricane Dorian weakened very slowly on Thursday while the center of circulation moved just off the coast.  The pressure remained nearly steady around 958 mb.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Dorian.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 220 miles (330 km) from the center.

The core of Hurricane Dorian with the strongest winds remained over the Atlantic Ocean.  Numerous location along the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina reported winds to topical storm force.  Rainbands rotating around the northern half of Dorian dropped locally heavy rain over coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina.  Thunderstorms in some of the bands generated tornadoes and there were scattered reports of wind damage.  Hurricane Dorian caused a storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1.3 to 2.3 meters) along the coast.

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. began to steer Hurricane Dorian toward the northeast.  Dorian began to move faster later on Thursday.  The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Dorian rapidly toward the northeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Dorian will bring wind and rain to eastern North Carolina on Friday.  Dorian will also cause a storm surge along the coast.  Hurricane Dorian will pass southeast of New England on Friday night.  Dorian will bring wind and rain to the Canadian Maritime provinces and Newfoundland during the weekend.

Major Hurricane Dorian Moves Toward the Carolinas

Major Hurricane Dorian moved toward the Carolinas on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 31.3°N and longitude 79.6°W which put it about 105 miles (170 km) south of Charleston, South Carolina.  Dorian was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from the mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Savannah River, Georgia and from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Chesapeak Bay south of Smith Point.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Chincoteague, Virginia to Fenwick Island, Delaware, for Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point and for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island.

Hurricane Dorian strengthened back into a major hurricane on Wednesday night as it moved over the warm water in the Gulf Stream.  A large eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) became more circular and symmetrical.  The ring of thunderstorms surrounding the eye became continuous and a little thicker.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the core of Hurricane Dorian also got stronger.  Storms around the core of Dorian generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane and the surface pressure decreased.

The circulation around Hurricane Dorian increased in size on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.2.  Hurricane Dorian was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Hurricane Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Dorian could get a little stronger during the night.  An upper level trough over the central U.S. will move toward Hurricane Dorian on Thursday.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the hurricane.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase, which will cause Dorian to start to weaken.

Hurricane Dorian will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Dorian toward the north on Wednesday night.  The upper level trough will turn Hurricane Dorian toward the northeast on Thursday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian could approach the coast of South Carolina on Thursday morning.  Dorian will move along the coast of North Carolina on Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

Even if the center of Hurricane Dorian stays just south of the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina, the large circulation means that locations near the coast are likely to get hurricane force winds.  Winds blowing water toward the coast could cause storm surges of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) in some locations.  Dorian could also drop locally heavy rain and cause flash flooding  near the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Fernand made landfall north of La Pesca, Mexico on Wednesday and Tropical Storm Gabrielle developed south of the Azores.  Ar 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Fernand was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 99.0°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) west-northwest of La Pesca, Mexico.  Dorian was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 34.4°W which put it about 1220 miles (1965 km) south-southwest of the Azores.  Gabrielle was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 m/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Hurricane Dorian Moves Parallel to Florida Coast

Hurricane Dorian moved parallel to the east coast of Florida on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Dorian was at latitude 28.4°N and longitude 79.0°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km/h) east of Cape Canaveral, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Sebastian Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida and from Savannah River, Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to Savannah River, Georgia and from Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, Florida and from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Savannah, River, Georgia.  Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia and for Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point.

Although Hurricane Dorian was moving again, it exhibited the structure of a hurricane that had been stationary for a day and had undergone an eyewall replacement cycle.  There was a large ragged eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the large core of Hurricane Dorian.  Storm near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

An eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Dorian to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Wind to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (285 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.1.

Hurricane Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the large size of Hurricane Dorian will limit potential intensification.  Hurricane Dorian could intensify a little on Wednesday.  An upper level trough over the U.S. will approach Dorian on Wednesday night.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will cause more vertical wind shear on Thursday.

Hurricane Dorian will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.  The high will steer Dorian toward the north-northwest.  The upper level trough will turn Dorian toward the northeast on Wednesday night.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian will move nearly parallel to the east coast of Florida on Wednesday.  Dorian could approach the coast of South Carolina by Wednesday night.

Elsewhere Tropical Storm Fernand was over the western Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Depression was west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 96.4°W which put it about 100 miles (155 km) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico.  Fernand was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Altimira, Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, River.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 32.8°W which put it about 615 miles (995 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  It was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Fernand Forms Over W. Gulf of Mexico, Dorian Edges Away From Bahamas

Tropical Storm Fernand formed over the western Gulf of Mexico and powerful Hurricane Dorian edged slowly away from the Northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 95.3°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east of La Pesca, Mexico.  Fernand was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast from Barra del Tordo to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico exhibited greater organization on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Fernand.  The circulation around Fernand consisted of a broad area of lower pressure.  One rainband wrapped around the northern periphery of the circulation and a second rainband wrapped around the western periphery of the circulation.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 105 miles (170 km) from the center of the circulation on the western side of Fernand.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fernand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Fernand is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.  However, the broad circulation will limit how fast the tropical storm can intensify.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move south of an ridge of high pressure over the southern U.S.  The ridge will Fernand toward the west-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fernand is expected to make landfall on the coast of Mexico between La Pesca and Mezquital on Wednesday.  Fernand will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  The rain could cause flash floods where Tropical Storm Fernand moves inland over northeastern Mexico.  Fernand could also cause a storm surge of 6 feet (2 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, powerful Hurricane Dorian began to edge slowly away from the Northwestern Bahamas.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 78.7°W which put it about 105 miles (170 km) east of Ft. Pierce, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida and from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to Edisto Beach and from South Santee River to Duck, North Carolina including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida and from Ponte Vedra Beach to Edisto Beach.  The Hurricane Warnings for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island had been changed to Tropical Storm Warnings, since Dorian was moving away from those locations.

Hurricane Dorian finally started to move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday.  An upper level trough over the U.S. will turn Dorian toward the northeast on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Dorian will stay offshore and move parallel to east coast of Florida.  A small deviation to the west could bring the core of Dorian close to the coast.  The center of Hurricane Dorian could move very close to the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina on Thursday.  The circulation around Hurricane Dorian increased in size on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (275 km) from the center.