A risk posed by Hurricane Polo prompted the government of Mexico to issue a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the west coast of Baja California on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 113.1°W which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Sante Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo weakened steadily on Saturday, but Polo was still a major hurricane on Saturday evening.  A circular eye was still present at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Saturday.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Polo increased on Saturday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.0.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, Polo will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Polo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Polo will continue to weaken on Sunday because of more vertical wind shear.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the north during the next 24 hours.  The upper level trough that is near the West Coast of the U.S. will steer Polo toward the northeast on Monday.  Polo will reach southern Baja California on Monday.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, the upper level trough near the West Coast of the U.S. caused Hurricane Odalys to weaken on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 123.6°W which put the center about 885 miles (1425 km) west of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.