Hurricane Polo stalled south of Mexico on Tuesday night.
At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 101.4°W which put the center about 320 miles (515 km) southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Polo was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.
The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall in Hurricane Polo. An outer eyewall surrounded the inner eye and eyewall. The formation of concentric eyewalls marked the start of an eyewall replacement cycle. The eyewall replacement cycle caused the maximum sustained wind speed in Hurricane Polo to decrease as the inner eyewall started to weaken.
Two concentric eyewalls were still present in Hurricane Polo on Wednesday morning. The inner eye had a diameter of 17 miles (28 km). Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday night.
Even though Hurricane Polo was in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle, the size of circulation around Polo only got a little larger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.
The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.1. Hurricane Polo is similar in intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020. Polo is not as large as Laura was.
Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be very favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours. Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Polo could weaken a little more while the eyewall replacement cycle is underway. Polo could strengthen back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale once the inner eyewall dissipates completely.
A high pressure system is forecast to develop over Mexico later today. The high pressure system will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northwest after it develops. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico. The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico.
Even though the strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico, bands in the northern side of Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rains to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Strong winds and heavy rain could affect parts of Colima, Michoacan, and western Guerrero. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.
Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Odalys strengthened to a hurricane far to the southwest of Baja California. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 128.4°W which put the center about 1295 miles (2085 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California. Odalys was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.