Hurricane Douglas Strengthens to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Douglas strengthened to a major hurricane on Thursday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Douglas was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 134.7°W which put it about 1470 miles (2365 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Douglas was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Hurricane Douglas strengthened rapidly into a major hurricane during the past 24 hours.  A circular eye formed at the center of Douglas.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Douglas.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Hurricane Douglas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Douglas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Douglas could strengthen on Thursday.  Douglas will start to move over slightly cooler water on Friday.  It is likely to weaken slowly once the core of the circulation moves over the cooler water.

Hurricane Douglas will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Douglas toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Douglas could approach Hawaii on Sunday.  Watches could be issued for Hawaii later this week.

Tropical Depression Eight Forms Over Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression Eight formed over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night and a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of Texas.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 88.2°W which put it about 530 miles (855 km) east-southeast of Port Oconnor, Texas.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast of Texas from Port Mansfield to High Island.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Eight.  The thunderstorms were forming in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of the depression consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Eight will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level low over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Eight is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Depression Eight will move south of a subtropical high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean across the southern U.S.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eight could approach the coast of Texas on Friday night.  It is likely to be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Gonzalo strengthened as it moved toward the Windward Islands and a Hurricane Watch was issued for Barbados.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 45.9°W which put it about 1045 miles (1685 km) east of the southern Windward Islands.  Gonzalo was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Douglas Strengthens Into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Douglas strengthened into a hurricane east of Hawaii on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Douglas was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 129.5°W which put it about 1785 miles (2870 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Douglas was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Douglas exhibited more organization on satellite images.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye was visible intermittently on satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Douglas.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Hurricane Douglas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Douglas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Douglas will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into a major hurricane.

Hurricane Douglas will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Douglas toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Douglas could approach Hawaii on Sunday.  Watches could be issued for Hawaii later this week when Douglas moves closer.

TD 7 Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Former Tropical Depression Seven strengthened into Tropical Storm Gonzalo on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m.  EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 43.6°W which put it about 1205 miles (1935 km) east of the southern Windward Islands.  Gonzalo was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Seven exhibited much better organization on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Gonzalo.  A band of thunderstorms curved around the southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  The inner end of the band appeared to be wrapping farther around the center and visible satellite images suggested that an eye could be forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Gonzalo.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Gonzalo was small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Gonzalo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical  wind shear.  Tropical Storm Gonzalo is likely to intensify and it could strengthen into a hurricane during the next 36 hours.  Small tropical cyclones like Gonzalo can change intensity rapidly if they move into a different type of environment.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Gonzalo toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Gonzalo could approach the Windward Islands on Saturday.  Watches could be issued for some of those islands when Gonzalo moves closer.

Elsewhere, more thunderstorms were developing around a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico that is currently designated as Invest 91L.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 91L was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 87.9°W which put it about 645 miles (1040 km) east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  The low pressure system was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.  The National Hurricane Center was indicating the probability was 50% that the low pressure system would develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Depression Seven Forms East of Windward Islands

Tropical Depression Seven formed east of the Windward Islands on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located at latitude 9.8°N and longitude 40.4°W which put it about 1420 miles (2285 km) east of the southern Windward Islands.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

An area of low pressure between the coast of Africa and the Windward Islands exhibited more organization on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Seven.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Seven was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and the bands were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Seven will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Seven is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Seven will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Seven could approach the Windward Islands on Saturday.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico was designated as Invest 91L on Tuesday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Invest 91L was located at latitude 25.2°N and longitude 84.7°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) west of Key West, Florida.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts: to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb.  The National Hurricane Center indicated that there was a 40% probability of the formation of a tropical depression.

Tropical Storm Douglas Strengthens Quickly

Tropical Storm Douglas strengthened quickly over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 124.2°W which put it about 2110 miles (3390 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Douglas was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Douglas exhibited much better organization on Tuesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around around the center of Douglas.  The strongest bands were in the southern half of Tropical Storm Douglas.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Douglas.

Tropical Storm Douglas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Douglas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Douglas is likely to intensify into a hurricane during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Douglas will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high is likely to steer Douglas toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Douglas could approach Hawaii by late in the weekend.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Seven-E weakened over cooler water east of Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 134.1°W which put it about 1575 miles (2535 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Two Tropical Depressions Form Over Eastern Pacific

Two tropical depressions formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 130.3°E which put it about 1345 miles (2170 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 119.8°W which put it about 905 miles (1460 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Seven-E was asymmetrical.  The strongest storms were occurring in bands southwest of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of the depression consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The depression was already to moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 25°C.  It was moving under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge which was producing northeasterly winds.  Those winds were blowing toward the top of the depression and they were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Cooler water and wind shear were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Depression Seven-E is likely to weaken since it will continue to move over cooler water.  The depression will move south of a subtropical high pressure system.  The high will steer the depression toward the west while it weakens.  On its anticipated track the depression will weaken long before it could pose a threat to Hawaii.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Eight-E is also asymmetrical.  Many of the strongest storms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Some thunderstorms began to develop in bands in the eastern half of the depression on Monday morning.  Storms on the western side of the circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Eight-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will have less effect because the depression will be over warmer water.  Tropical Depression Eight-E will strengthen during the next 48 hours and it could intensify into a hurricane.

Tropical Depression Eight-E will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the depression will move in the general direction of Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Cristina Starts to Weaken

Tropical Storm Cristina started to weaken on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 121.0°W which put it about 730 miles (1175 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Cristina was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h)  and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Cristina began to weaken on Saturday when it moved over cooler water.  Cristina moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 24°C.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Cristina was well organized, but the thunderstorms were not as tall,  A thin broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of circulation and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center were still generating upper level divergence.  However, the circulation was unable to extract enough energy from the cooler water to maintain the stronger wind speeds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Cristina will continue to weaken during the next few days when it moves over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 23°C.  Cristina could weaken to a tropical depression by Monday.

Tropical Storm Cristina will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Cristina toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristina will move in the general direction of Hawaii while it weakens.

Tropical Storm Fay Weakens Over New York

Tropical Storm Fay weakened over New York on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located at latitude 41.0°N and longitude 74.2°W which put it about 15 miles (30 km) northwest of New York, New York.  Fay was moving toward the north at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway, New York to Watch Hill, Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound.

Tropical Storm Fay weakened on Friday night as the center moved across eastern New Jersey and into southeastern New York.  An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of Fay.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Drier air was wrapping around the southern side of the circulation and it was being pulled into the inner part of Tropical Storm Fay.  Bands near the center of Fay consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Heavier rain was falling in bands over northeastern Pennsylvania and central New York.  Winds to tropical storm force were occurring in the southeastern part of the circulation which is still over the Atlantic Ocean.  The wind speeds over land were much weaker.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Fay toward the north-northeast during the next several days.  Fay will continue to weaken as the tropical storm moves farther inland.  Tropical Storm Fay will also make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves farther north.  Fay could still drop locally heavy rain over parts of the northeastern U.S. on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Fay Drops Heavy Rain on Delaware and New Jersey

Tropical Storm Fay dropped heavy rain on parts of Delaware and southern New Jersey on Friday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located at latitude 37.6°N and longitude 74.7°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) south of Cape May, New Jersey.  Fay was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Fenwick Island, Delaware to Watch Hill, Rhode Island including southern Delaware Bay, Long Island and Long Island Sound.

Tropical Storm Fay intensified slowly on Friday morning.  A reconnaissance aircraft reported that the minimum surface pressure decreased to 999 mb.  A ring of showers and lower clouds encircled the center of Tropical Storm Fay.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the northern and western sides of Fay.  Bands in the southern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Drier air was wrapping around the southern portion of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fay.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) on the western side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Fay will move through an environment that could allow for some additional intensification during the next few hours.  Fay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C.  An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Fay from strengthening a little more.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. and a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will interact to steer Tropical Storm Fay toward the north-northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Fay could approach the coast of New Jersey in a few hours.  Tropical Storm Fay will move across Long Island on Friday night.

Tropical Storm Fay will bring gusty winds to the coast of Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut and Rhode Island.  Locally heavy rain will fall over those areas as the center of Fay approaches.  Flood Watches have been issued for parts of Delaware, New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York, Connecticut and western Massachusetts.   Easterly winds blowing around the north side of Tropical Storm Fay could push water toward the coast.  Water Level rises of three feet (1 meter) could occur in some locations.