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Hurricane Hilary Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Hilary brought wind and rain to Baja California on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 114.6°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Even though center of Hurricane Hilary was south of Punta Eugenia, Hilary brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California on Saturday night. A weather station in Loreto, Mexico reported a sustained wind speed of 58 m.p.h. (93 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h). There were reports of flash floods in Santa Rosalia, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Todos Santos, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Guaymas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Point Mugu, California. The Tropical Storm Warning included San Diego. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary was weakening on Saturday night. There was no longer an eye visible on satellite images of Hurricane Hilary. The distribution of thunderstorms in Hilary was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Hilary’s circulation. Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was still large even though Hilary was weakening. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.6. Hurricane Hilary was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Matthew when Matthew hit South Carolina in 2016.

Hurricane Hilary will be moving into an environment that will be unfavorable for a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26°C. It will move between an upper level ridge over Mexico and the south central U.S. and an upper level low west of California. The upper level ridge and upper level low will interact to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hilary’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Hilary to weaken during the next 24 hours. In addition, much of the circulation in the eastern side of Hurricane Hilary will pass over Baja California. The mountains in Baja California will partially disrupt the flow of air around Hurricane Hilary.

The upper level ridge over the south central U.S. and the upper level low west of California will steer Hurricane Hilary toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Hilary will be near Punta Eugenia early Sunday morning. Hilary will continue to produce strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain in Baja California on Sunday. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Hilary could take a track similar to the one taken by Hurricane Nora in 1997. The center of Hilary will reach southern California by Sunday evening. Hilary will weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hilary will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California. The heaviest rain is likely to fall where the wind force the air to rise over mountains. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona. Hilary could also bring strong winds to mountains in southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Hurricane Hilary Moves Toward Baja California

Hurricane Hilary was moving toward Baja California on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 113.4°W which put it about 490 miles (790 km) south-southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Guaymas, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Point Mugu, California. The Tropical Storm Warning included San Diego. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary was moving closer to Baja California on Saturday morning. An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Hilary’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hilary. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.3. Hurricane Hilary was capable of causing regional major damage.

Hurricane Hilary appeared to be starting to weaken on Saturday morning. Thunderstorms were weakening in bands in the western side of Hilary’s circulation. Some of the bands in the western part of Hilary consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Northerly winds in the western half of Hurricane Hilary were pulling cooler, drier air into that part of the hurricane.

Hurricane Hilary will be moving into an environment that will become unfavorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 27°C. It will move between an upper level ridge over Mexico and the south central U.S. and an upper level low west of California. The upper level ridge and upper level low will interact to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hilary’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Hilary to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge over the south central U.S. and the upper level low west of California will steer Hurricane Hilary toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Hilary will approach Punta Eugenia on Saturday night. Hilary will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hilary will reach southern California on Sunday. Hilary is likely to weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hilary bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona. Hilary could also bring strong winds to mountains in southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Hilary Prompts Hurricane Warning for Baja, Tropical Storm Watch for Southern California

The potential threat from Hurricane Hilary prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for part of Baja California and a Tropical Storm Watch for Southern California on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 111.4°W which put it about 360 miles (575 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Ensenada, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Loreto, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Orange/Los Angeles County Line. The Tropical Storm Watch included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ensenada, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Loreto to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary continued to intensify on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (30 km) was at the center of Hilary’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hilary. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.8. Hurricane Hilary was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Hilary will move through an environment favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Hilary could intensify during the next 24 hours. However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Hilary to weaken.

Hurricane Hilary will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico and the south central U.S. The high pressure system will steer Hilary toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Hilary will move toward Baja California. Hilary will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system during the weekend. The center of Hurricane Hilary will be near Punta Eugenia on Sunday morning. Hurricane Hilary will start to affect Baja California on Saturday. Hilary will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

The center of Hurricane Hilary is likely to approach southern California on Sunday night. There is cooler water west of the northern part of Baja California. Hilary will be weakening when it approaches southern California. Hilary bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Hurricane Kay Hits Baja California

Hurricane Kay hit Baja California on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Kay was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 114.3°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) southeast of Punte Eugenia, Mexico. Kay was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Jose De Las Palomas, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Puerto Cortes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Guaymas, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Kay made landfall on the west coast of Baja California southeast of Punta Eugenia on Thursday afternoon. Kay weakened slowly as it approached the west coast of Baja California. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Kay. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Kay’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Kay dropped heavy rain over parts of Baja California and there were reports of flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Kay will continue to move toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. The center of Hurricane Kay will be over land during the next few hours before it moves back over water when the center gets north of Punta Eugenia. Kay will weaken steadily during the next 24 hours. The eastern half of Kay’s circulation will be flowing over Baja California, where the mountains will disrupt the flow of air. Hurricane Kay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23˚C. Kay will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over Baja California as it moves northwards.

Clouds in the rainbands will not rise as high into the atmosphere when Hurricane Kay weakens. Kay will be steered by winds closer to the surface on Friday. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will steer Kay more toward the northwest on Friday. On its anticipated track, the center of Kay will be southeast of San Diego, California on Friday night. Kay could be a tropical storm when it is southeast of San Diego. Bands in the eastern side of Kay could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California and western Arizona. A High Wind Watch is in effect for parts of southern California. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of southern California and western Arizona.

Tropical Storm Rosa Nears Baja California

Tropical Storm Rosa moved nearer to Baja California on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 116.5°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Rosa was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Rosa was weakening as it approached the coast of Baja California.  Rosa was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 23°C.  An upper level low west of California was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing significant vertical wind shear.  The effects of cool water and vertical shear were causing most of the stronger thunderstorms to occur northeast of the center of circulation.  Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The center of Tropical Storm Rosa will reach northern Baja California in a few hours.  Rosa will bring some gusty winds when when it reaches the coast, but the greater risk is locally heavy rainfall.  Rosa could drop several inches of rain and flash floods could occur.  The lower level part of Rosa’s circulation will weaken when it crosses Baja California.  However, the upper low west of California will steer the middle and upper parts of Tropical Storm Rosa over the Southwestern U.S.  Rosa, or its remnants, could drop locally heavy rain over that region during the next several days.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for southeastern California, eastern Nevada, western Arizona, and much of Utah.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific, Tropical Storm Sergio was strengthening slowly south of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 790 miles (1275 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Sergio was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Hurricane Rosa Moves Toward Baja California

Hurricane Rosa moved toward Baja California on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Rosa was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 118.9°W which put it about 440 miles (710 km) south-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Rosa was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe, Mexico.

Hurricane Rosa will move into an environment unfavorable for hurricanes on Sunday.  Rosa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is cooler than 26°C.  In addition an upper level low near the west coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will cause vertical wind shear.  The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Rosa to weaken.  Rosa could weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday night.

The upper low will steer Hurricane Rosa toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Rosa could reach Baja California on Monday.  It will likely be a tropical storm at that time.  Even though it will weaken, Rosa will drop heavy rain over parts northern Baja California and the southwestern U.S.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Sergio formed southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 103.3°W which put it about 390 miles (630 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Sergio was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Hurricane Rosa Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane Southwest of Baja California

Hurricane Rosa rapidly intensified into a major hurricane southwest of Baja California on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Rosa was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 115.9°W which put it about 570 miles (915 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rosa was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Hurricane Rosa rapidly intensified into a powerful hurricane on Thursday and a circular eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  The circulation around Hurricane Rosa was symmetrical.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the hurricane.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Rosa was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force only extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rosa was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.4.

Hurricane Rosa will continue to move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Rosa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear during the shorter term.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, an eyewall replacement cycle could halt the current period of rapid intensification.  Hurricane Rosa will start to move over cooler water during the weekend.  An upper level low west of California will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Rosa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and they could cause Rosa to weaken more quickly.

Hurricane Rosa will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico on Friday.  Rosa will start to move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the ridge.  The upper level trough east of California will turn Rosa more toward the northeast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Rosa could approach Baja California early next week.  It may weaken to a tropical storm before it gets to Baja California, but it still will have the potential to drop heavy rain.

Hurricane Bud Weakens, Watch Issued for Baja California

Hurricane Bud weakened significantly on Tuesday, but it prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Bud was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 108.6°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas.

Hurricane Bud weakened to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  The center of Hurricane Bud was over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 27°C, but much of the northern half of the circulation was over cooler water.  The slow movement of Bud may have also allowed the winds to mix cooler water to the surface.  Thunderstorms were not as tall and the bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring mainly south and east of the center of Hurricane Bud.

Hurricane Bud is forecast to spin down slowly during the next several days.  Cooler water at the surface of the ocean is not likely to supply sufficient energy to maintain the circulation.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear, but the lack of shear will be less important than effects of the cooler water.  The lack of stronger thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation will limit the downdrafts that could transport stronger winds to the surface.  Hurricane Bud could weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday if new thunderstorms do not form in the core of the circulation.

A ridge in the middle troposphere over the southwestern U.S. almost blocked the forward motion of Hurricane Bud on Tuesday.  Bud moved slowly toward the north-northwest.  A slow motion toward the north-northwest is forecast to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  After that time a trough over the Pacific Ocean is forecast to push the ridge eastward.  When the trough approaches, stronger southerly winds will steer Bud northward more quickly.  On its anticipated track Bud is forecast to approach the southern tip of Baja California in 36 to 48 hours.

Hurricane Bud is likely to be a tropical storm when it nears Baja California.  Bud will bring gusty winds, but the bigger risk will be locally heavy rain.  Heavy rain falling on steep terrain could cause flash floods.  Bud or its remnants could also bring rain to parts of the southwestern U.S.

Tropical Storm Pilar Forms Near Mexico

Tropical Storm Pilar formed just west of Mexico on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 105.3°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Pilar was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to El Roblito including the Islas Marias.

A distinct center of circulation developed within a larger area of low pressure near the west coast of Mexico on Saturday and the system was classified as Tropical Storm Pilar.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms began to form around the center.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of Tropical Storm Pilar.

Tropical Storm Pilar will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification on Sunday.  Pilar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.   An upper level high over Mexico is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are producing some vertical wind shear, but the shear was not strong enough to prevent the formation of Tropical Storm Pilar.  The eastern part of the circulation will be moving over western Mexico and increased friction will be the primary factor inhibiting strengthening.  Tropical Storm Pilar is likely to intensify on Sunday.

A ridge in the middle levels of the atmosphere over Mexico is steering Tropical Storm Pilar slowly toward the north.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Pilar will be very near Cabo Corrientes on Sunday night.  The center could move inland or it could remain just west of the coast.  Tropical Storm Pilar will drop very heavy rain over parts of the states of Colima and Jalisco.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding in some locations.

Max Rapidly Intensifies Into a Hurricane Near Acapulco

Tropical Storm Max intensified rapidly into a hurricane on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Max was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 99.9°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km/h) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Max was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Zihuatenajo to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Laguas de Chacahua, Mexico.

The circulation of Hurriane Max is quite small.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center.  Although the circulation of Hurricane Max is small, it is very well organized.  There is a small circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.

The center of Hurricane Max is very close to the coast of Mexico.  The outer fringes of the northwestern part of the circulation could already be pulling in some drier air.  Max will make landfall on the coast of Mexico within a few hours and it will start to dissipate as soon as the center make landfall.

The core of Hurricane Max will be capable of causing localized wind damage.  Max will also drop very heavy rain over parts of the states or Guerrero and Oaxaca and flash floods could occur in some areas of steeper terrain.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Norma formed to the west of Hurricane Max.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 395 miles (635 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Norma was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  Tropical Storm Norma is forecast to strengthen and move toward Baja California.  Normal could be a hurricane when it approaches southern Baja California in a few days.