Author Archives: jay_hobgood

Typhoon Dolphin Is Bringing Wind and Heavy Rain to Iwo To

Even though the center of Typhoon Dolphin is still over 100 miles from Iwo To, it is bringing wind and heavy rain to that island.  The most recent surface observation reported southeast winds at 43 m.p.h. with gusts to 66 m.p.h.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located near latitude 24.6° and longitude 139.7°E which put it about 140 miles west-southwest of Iwo To.  Dolphin was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 105 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Dolphin will continue to move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures as it moves farther north.  It will also encounter strong upper level westerly winds, which will increase vertical wind shear.  So, Typhoon Dolphin will weaken steadily on Tuesday.  It will eventually transition into an extratropical cyclone as it passes southeast of Japan.

Upper level westerly winds are steering Typhoon Dolphin toward the northeast.  It is expected to accelerate toward the northeast on Tuesday.  On its anticipated track the center of Dolphin will pass northwest of Iwo To during the next few hours.  It could pass very near Chichi Jima on Tuesday and bring strong wind and heavy rain.

Typhoon Dolphin Approaching Iwo To

Although Typhoon Dolphin is weakening, it will still be a typhoon when it approaches Iwo To in about 24 hours.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 138.7°E which put it about 320 miles south-southwest of Iwo To.  Dolphin was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 155 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

Upper level westerly winds blowing over the top of Dolphin are tilting the circulation to the east and contributing to the weakening of the typhoon.  Dolphin will soon be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is lower than 26°C and as it moves farther north it will encounter stronger upper level westerly winds.  Cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear will continue to weaken Dolphin.  As it moves into a cooler environment southeast of Japan in several days, Dolphin will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Dolphin is moving around the the western end of a subtropical ridge.  It will gradually turn more toward the northeast on Monday.  As it encounters stronger westerly winds, Dolphin will start to move more rapidly toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track, Dolphin will near Iwo To in about 24 hours.  Although it will be weaker, it will still be a typhoon at that time.

 

Typhoon Dolphin Becomes Equivalent of Category 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Dolphin intensified rapidly on Saturday and it reached an intensity equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 139.0E which put it about 470 miles south-southwest of Iwo To.  Dolphin was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 195 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Dolphin is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are between 26°C and 27°C.  It is in an area where the upper level winds are light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  It has very well developed upper level outflow, especially on the northeast side of the circulation.  Dolphin developed concentric eyewalls earlier on Saturday, but the inner eyewall appears to have dissipated.  The circulation has consolidated around the outer eyewall and it is now the core of the circulation.  Dolphin is probably near its peak intensity.  As it moves farther north, the SSTs will decrease and it will move over water cooler than 26°C.    In addition, upper level westerly winds will increase as the typhoon moves north of 25°N.  Cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear will produce a steady weakening of Dolphin as it moves north.

Dolphin is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  It is likely to move northward on Sunday and then turn to the northeast on Monday.  As it encounters westerly winds early next week, it is likely to accelerate toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Dolphin will approach Iwo To in about 48 hours.  It could still be a significant typhoon at that time.

 

Typhoon Dolphin Hits Guam and Rota

The core of Typhoon Dolphin moved over Guam and Rota on Friday.  Andersen Air Force Base reported northwesterly winds at 75 m.p.h. with gusts to 106 m.p.h. in one of its hourly observations.  The base also reported a Peak Wind of 86 knots (100 m.p.h.) in another observation.  The international airport on Guam reported a Peak Wind of 70 knots (80 m.p.h.).  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 143.0°E which put it about 120 miles northwest of Guam.  Dolphin was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 155 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

Typhoon Dolphin is intensifying rapidly.  It is over water there the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C and the upper level winds are light.  It has a well formed eye and thunderstorms around the center are pumping out mass.  Upper level divergence is occurring and their are outflow channels to the northeast and southwest.  Dolphin could continue to intensify rapidly for another 24 hours.

Dolphin is near the western end of a subtropical ridge and it should gradually turn toward the north and then the northeast.  Its anticipated track will take it farther away from Guam, but it could approach Iwo To in about 72 hours as a significant typhoon.

Typhoon Dolphin Nearing Guam

Typhoon Dolphin is bringing wind and rain to Guam and Rota.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 146.6°E which put it about 100 miles east of Guam.  Dolphin was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 130 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.  A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Guam, Rota, Saipan and Tinian.  The Hurricane Intensity Index is 19.2, the Hurricane Size Index is 12.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index is 32.0.  The indices suggest that Dolphin is capable of producing regional serious damage.

The circulation of Dolphin became more symmetrical on Thursday and radar images from Guam show a circular eye and eyewall.  The thunderstorms near the center are generating upper level outflow.  Dolphin is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and it is in an area where the upper level winds are relatively light.  The combination of better organization, warm water, little vertical wind shear suggest that further intensification is likely.

A subtropical ridge is steering Dolphin toward the west-northwest and that steering pattern is likely to continue for another day or so.  As Dolphin moves near the western end of the subtropical ridge, it is likely to turn more toward the north.  Eventually, when the typhoon moves farther north, westerly winds will turn it toward the northeast.

The core of Typhoon Dolphin will pass near Guam and Rota during the next few hours.  The northern portion of Guam and Rota will experience the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall, although much of Guam will experience the effects of Dolphin.  The core of the typhoon will likely pass south of Saipan and Tinian, but those islands will still get hit by rainbands rotating around the northern half of the circulation.

 

Typhoon Dolphin Still Moving Toward Guam

Typhoon Dolphin continued to moved toward the west-northwest in the direction of Guam on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 151.6°E which put it about 510 miles east-southeast of Guam.  Dolphin was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 125 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.  A Typhoon Warning has been issued for Guam and Rota.  A Typhoon Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Saipan and Tinian.

Although the overall circulation of Dolphin remains well organized, many of the thunderstorms are located in a long spiral band that is trying to wrap around the center.  Some drier air may be wrapping around the western and southern sides of the circulation outside this band.  Dolphin is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures.  It is moving near the axis of an upper level ridge and the core of the typhoon is in an area with little vertical wind shear.  Except for the possible dry air, the conditions are favorable for further intensification.

Dolphin is being steered to the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge north of the typhoon.  The ridge is likely to continue to steer Dolphin in this direction for another day or two.  On the anticipated track Dolphin would approach Guam in 24 to 30 hours.  It could be a significant typhoon at that time.  After it passes Guam, Dolphin is expected to turn more toward the northwest as it moves around the western end of the subtropical ridge.

 

Dolphin Becomes a Typhoon and Heads Toward Guam

Tropical Storm Dolphin moved into a more favorable environment and intensified into a typhoon on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 10.2°N and longitude 155.8°W which put it about 350 miles east-northeast of Chuuk and about 810 miles east-southeast of Guam.  Dolphin was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 90 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Dolphin moved closer to the axis of an upper level ridge and the vertical wind shear which was inhibiting its intensification diminished.  Since Dolphin is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, the decreased shear allow it to intensify into a typhoon.  Dolphin has a small well organized core circulation with a tiny eye at its center.  Spiral bands of thunderstorms radiate out from the center.  The upper level outflow produced by those thunderstorms has increased and the removal of mass is allowing the surface pressure to decrease.  Dolphin is expected to remain in a region of modest vertical wind shear and further intensification is likely.  A period of rapid intensification is possible.

A subtropical ridge is steering Dolphin toward the west.  The ridge is expected to steer it toward the west-northwest during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Dolphin would approach Guam in 48 to 60 hours and it could be a significant typhoon at that time.

 

Tropical Storm Dolphin Moving West and Organizing Slowly

Tropical Storm Dolphin turned toward the west on Monday and showed signs of more organization.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Dolphin was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 158.0°E which put it about 490 miles east-northeast of Chuuk and about 950 miles east-southeast of Guam.  Dolphin was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Dolphin is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation became more symmetrical although many of the stronger thunderstorms are west of the center of circulation.  A strong upper level ridge is located northwest of Dolphin and it is generating easterly winds winds over the top of the circulation.  The vertical wind shear may be the reason why the stronger thunderstorms are west of the center.  The upper level ridge is also contributing to an outflow channel to the southwest of Dolphin which cold pump out more mass.  The vertical wind shear is inhibiting the intensification of Dolphin.  However, as the tropical storm moves farther west, it could move into an area where the upper level winds are lighter.  Given the warm SSTs, a decrease in shear would lead to more intensification.

A subtropical ridge is expected to steer Dolphin toward the west during the next two or three days.  A turn toward the west-northwest will be possible later in the week if a weakness develops in the ridge.  On the anticipated track Dolphin could approach Guam in 48 to 60 hours and it could be a typhoon by that time.

Typhoon Noul Expected to Head Toward Okinawa

Typhoon Noul is expected to pass east of Taiwan and move toward Okinawa on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Noul was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 122.4°E which put it about 260 miles south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, about 240 miles south-southwest of Ishigaki and about 550 miles southwest of Naha, Okinawa.  Noul was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 150 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Noul will be moving over increasingly cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as it moves northeastward on Monday.  In addition, it will move into an area where stronger westerly winds are blowing in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Cooler SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear will cause Noul to weaken steadily.  However, it could still be a typhoon when it passes near Okinawa.

Noul is moving around the western end of the subtropical ridge that has been steering it.  As it moves farther to the north, it will be steered by the mid-latitude westerly winds and Noul will accelerate toward the northeast.  Noul is like to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it passes south of Japan.

Tropical Storm Dolphin Expected to Turn West and Head Toward Guam

Tropical Storm Dolphin (07W) has been meandering around within a much larger region of low pressure west of the International Dateline, but it is expected to take a turn toward the west on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Dolphin was located at latitude 9.3°N and longitude 159.4°E which put it about 180 miles north-northeast of Pohnpei and about 1040 miles east-southeast of Guam.  Dolphin was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 60 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

An upper level ridge northeast of Dolphin is producing easterly winds over the top of the circulation and is creating moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear is contributing to an asymmetrical circulation where most of the thunderstorms are on the western side.  The shear is inhibiting further organization of the circulation and has kept Dolphin as a minimal tropical storm.  Dolphin is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and it has the potential to intensify if the wind shear decreases.

A subtropical ridge is expected to build north of Dolphin and to steer it mainly toward the west for much of the coming week.  On its expected track Dolphin could approach Guam in about four days.