Author Archives: jay_hobgood

Tropical Storm Melissa Forms over Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Melissa formed over the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 71.7°W which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) south of Port Au Prince, Haiti.  Melissa was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica.

A low pressure system over the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola strengthened on Tuesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Melissa.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Melissa on Tuesday morning.  Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Melissa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Melissa began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Melissa was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the western half of Tropical Storm Melissa.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near Cuba.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Melissa will move closer to Haiti and Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Fengshen Moves Toward Vietnam

Tropical Storm Fengshen moved toward Vietnam on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 112.2°E which put the center about 290 miles (465 km) east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Fengshen was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Drier air was pulled around the western and southern sides of Tropical Storm Fengshen on Monday.  Bands in the western and southern sides of Fengshen’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of Tropical Storm Fengshen.  Storms near the center of Fengshen still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained relatively constant on Monday.

The circulation around the northern side of Tropical Storm Fengshen was interacting with a high pressure system over China.  So, tropical storm force winds extended out much farther in the northern half of Fengshen.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Fengshen.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the southern half of Fengshen’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South China Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Drier air will continue to be pulled around the northern and western sides of Fengshen’s circulation.  The drier air will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Fengshen is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over China.  The high pressure system will steer Fengshen toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fengshen will approach the coast of Vietnam near Da Nang in 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Fenshen will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to central Vietnam.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge Strengthens

Tropical Cyclone Chenge strengthened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge was located at latitude 9.2°S and longitude 66.6°E which put the center about 400 miles (645 km) west-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Chenge was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge strengthened almost to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  Stronger thunderstorms developed near the center of Chenge’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also formed in the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.  Storms near the center of Chenge generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chenge became more symmetrical when Chenge strengthened on Monday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Chenge’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chenge will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chenge’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chenge could continue to intensify during he next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chenge toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chenge could be north of Madagascar by the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge Moves Away From Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Chenge moved away from Diego Garcia on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 67.9°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) west-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Chenge was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge strengthened a little on Sunday as it moved away from Diego Garcia.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Chege’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.  Storms near the center of Chenge generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Chenge was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 235 miles (380 km) in the southern half of Chenge’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chenge will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chenge’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chenge could continue to intensify on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chenge toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chenge will pass north of Rodrigues in a couple of days.

Tropical Storm Fengshen Moves over South China Sea

Tropical Storm Fengshen moved over the South China Sea on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 117.0°E which put the center about 405 miles (665 km) south-southeast of Hong Kong.  Fengshen was moving toward the northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Fengshen started to strengthen after it moved over the South China Sea on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the center of Fengshen’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen.  Storms near the center of Fengshen generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Fengshen was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Fengshen’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South China Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  There is drier air to the northwest of Fengshen, but the drier air is likely to remain outside of the tropical storm on Monday.  Tropical Storm Fengshen will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fengshen toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fengshen will move toward Hainan.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge Passes Near Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Chenge passed just to the south of Diego Garcia on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge was located at latitude 8.5°S and longitude 69.5°E which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) west-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Chenge was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system passing near Diego Garcia strengthened on Saturday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Chenge.  Chenge brought gusty winds and rain showers to Diego Garcia.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Chenge was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Chenge’s circulation.  The bands in the eastern part of Tropical Cyclone Chenge consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Chenge generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chenge will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chenge’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chenge is likely to intensify on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chenge toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Chenge will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Storm Fengshen Brings Wind and Rain to Philippines

Tropical Storm Fengshen brought wind and rain to the Philippines on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 122.0°E which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Fengshen was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Fengshen was maintaining its intensity as it brought wind and rain to the Philippines on Saturday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain on parts of Luzon.  Those same bands of thunderstorms were also producing gusty winds.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fengshen.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern half of Fengshen’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Fengshen were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the South China Sea on Sunday.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Fengshen is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours while it moves across Luzon.  Fengshen will intensify when it moves over the South China Sea on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fengshen toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fengshen will move across Luzon during the next 12 hours.  Fengshen will move over the South China Sea on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Luzon during the next 24 hours.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  The weather in Luzon will start to improve later on Sunday when Tropical Storm Fengshen moves farther away.

Tropical Storm Fengshen Forms East of Philippines

Tropical Storm Fengshen formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Friday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 127.4°E which put the center about 250 miles (400 km) east of Legaspi, Philippines.  Fengshen was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Friday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Fengshen.

Thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Fengshen’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Fengshen began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is south of Japan.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fengshen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Fengshen will intensify during the next 24hours.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fengshen toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fengshen will move near the coast of southeastern Luzon on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Luzon.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Churns over Central Atlantic

Tropical Storm Lorenzo was churning over the Central Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 45.5°W which put the center about 1430 miles (2300 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Lorenzo was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

After strengthening on Monday night, Tropical Storm Lorenzo weakened on Tuesday.  An upper level low east of the Lesser Antilles was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Lorenzo’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  Lorenzo also moved into a region of drier air on Tuesday.  The strong vertical wind shear and drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Lorenzo to dissipate.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Lorenzo’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Lorenzo consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Lorenzo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern half of Lorenzo’s circulation.  The winds in the western half of Tropical Storm Lorenzo were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorenzo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  However, the upper level low east of the Lesser Antilles will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Lorenzo will also continue to move through the region of drier air.  The strong vertical wind shear and drier will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Lorenzo could weaken to a tropical depression on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Lorenzo toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lorenzo will remain out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Nakri Moves Away from Japan

Tropical Storm Nakri moved away from Japan on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Nakri was located at latitude 34.3°N and longitude 149.1°E which put the center about 460 miles (740 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Nakri was moving toward the east at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Former Typhoon Nakri weakened back to a tropical storm on Monday as it quickly moved farther away from Japan.  Nakri was still a very well organized tropical storm.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Nakri’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Tropical Storm Nakri.  Storms near the center of Nakri generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Storm Nakri was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Nakri’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Nakri will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Nakri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over northern Japan.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Nakri’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Nakri to weaken during the next 24 hours.  The cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will also cause Nakri to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over northern Japan will steer Tropical Storm Nakri quickly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Nakri will continue to move quickly away from Japan.