Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Hurricane Oscar Develops Rapidly Southeast of the Bahamas

Hurricane Oscar developed rapidly over the Atlantic Ocean southeast of the Bahamas on Saturday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Oscar was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 70.6°W which put the center about 165 miles (265 km) east-southeast of the Southeastern Bahamas.  Oscar was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos, and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin and Las Tunas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found that a low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean southeast of the Bahamas had rapidly developed into a hurricane on Saturday afternoon.  Based on data gather by the reconnaissance flight, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Hurricane Oscar.

The circulation around Hurricane Oscar was very small.  A very small eye with a diameter of 4 miles (6 km) was at the center of Oscar’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Oscar.  Storms near the center of Oscar generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Oscar was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 5 miles (8 km) on the northern side of Oscar’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Oscar.

Hurricane Oscar will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the eastern end of an upper level ridge over the Bahamas.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Oscar’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Oscar is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Oscar will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Oscar toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Oscar will move over the Turks and Caicos and the Southeastern Bahamas.  Oscar could approach eastern Cuba on Sunday night.

Hurricane Oscar will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and the Southeastern Bahamas.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Nadine brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 88.5°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) west-northwest of Belize City, Belize.  Nadine was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City,, Belize to Cancun, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cozumel.

Tropical Storm Nadine Forms East of Belize

Tropical Storm Nadine formed over the Northwest Caribbean Sea east of Belize on Friday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 87.3°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) east of Belize City, Belize. Nadine was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City,, Belize to Cancun, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cozumel.

A low pressure system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen intensified during Friday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Nadine.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Nadine exhibited much more organization on Saturday morning.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Nadine’s circulation.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Nadine.  Storms near the center of Nadine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Nadine was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) in the northern side of Nadine’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Nadine were blowing at less than tropical Storm force.

Tropical Storm Nadine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nadine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical disturbance.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent the intensification.  Tropical Nadine will intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Nadine will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the eastern United States.  The high pressure system will steer Nadine toward the west during the nest 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Nadine will make landfall on the coast of Belize in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Nadine will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Prompts Watch for Belize

A disturbance over the Northwest Caribbean Sea designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 85.7°W which put the center about 165 miles (265 km) east of Belize City, Belize.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize, City, Belize to Tulum, Mexico.

A tropical disturbance over the Northwest Caribbean Sea exhibited more organization on Friday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen.  The tropical disturbance had a large counterclockwise circulation, but there was not a well defined low level center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of the tropical disturbance.  Bands in the southern and western parts of the disturbance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  The tropical disturbance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical disturbance.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit the formation of a tropical cyclone.  However, the wind shear may not be enough to prevent the formation of a tropical cyclone.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen could strengthen to a tropical storm on Saturday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the eastern United States.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the west-northwest during the nest 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will make landfall on the coast of Belize on Saturday afternoon.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Milton Moves Away From Florida

Hurricane Milton moved eastward over the Atlantic Ocean away from Florida on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 29.1°N and longitude 78.5°W which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the east-northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.   A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, and the Abacos.

Hurricane Milton was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moved away to the east of Florida on Thursday morning.  A warm front was forming in the eastern part of Milton’s circulation.  A cold front was forming to the south of the center of Hurricane Milton.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of Milton’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Hurricane Milton consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The transition to an extratropical cyclone was also causing the distribution of wind speeds around Hurricane Milton to become more asymmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

Hurricane Milton will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce strong westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Milton’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Milton to complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Milton toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will move quickly away from Florida.  Milton could affect Bermuda on Friday as an extratropical cyclone.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie started to weaken.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 50.4°W which put the center about 1715 miles (2765 km) west-southeast of the Azores.  Leslie was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Milton Brings Strong Winds and Heavy Rain to Florida

Hurricane Milton brought strong winds and heavy rain to Florida on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 P.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 82.0°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southwest of Orlando, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the east-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

The center of Hurricane Milton made landfall on the west coast of Florida just south of Tampa on Wednesday evening.  Milton was a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  The heaviest rain fell just to the north of the center of Hurricane Milton.  The Albert Whitted Airport in St, Petersburg reported 14.83 inches (377 mm) of rain.  The Tampa International Airport reported 8.53 (217 mm) of rain.

A Flash Flood Emergency was in effect for the Tampa/St. Petersburg area.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern part of Hurricane Milton.  The Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg reported a sustained wind speed of 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 101 m.p.h. (163 km/h).  The Tampa International Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h) and a wind gust of 85 m.p.h. (137 km/h).  The Sarasota-Bradenton Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h) and a wind gust of 102 m.p.h. (171 km/h).

There were reports of almost two million customers without electricity.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Milton increased as Milton approached the west coast of Florida.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.6.  Hurricane Milton is almost as strong as Hurricane Sally was when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.  Milton is larger than Sally was.

Hurricane Milton will move around the southern part of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will steer Milton toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Milton will move steadily across Central Florida.  Milton will move over the Atlantic Ocean east of Cape Canaveral on Thursday morning.

Even though Hurricane Milton  will weaken as it moves across Central Florida, Milton will continue bring strong winds and heavy rain to the region.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

.  Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also continue to produce a storm surge the west coast of Florida until the winds subside on Thursday.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Anclote River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 49.3°W which put the center about 945 miles (1515 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Hurricane Milton Nears West Coast of Florida

The center of Hurricane Milton neared the west coast of Florida on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 P.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 83.4°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) west-southwest of Sarasota, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

Hurricane Milton was weakening gradually on Wednesday afternoon, but Milton was still a major hurricane.  An upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Milton’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The upper level winds were also inhibiting the upper level divergence to the west of Hurricane Milton.  The wind shear was causing Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually.

A circular eye was present at the center of Hurricane Milton.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Milton.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Milton’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Milton generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Even though Hurricane Milton is weakening, the circulation around Milton is getting larger.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.9.  Hurricane Milton is similar in intensity to Hurricane Irma when Irma hit southwest Florida in 2017.  Milton is not as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Milton will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will cause Hurricane Milton to continue to weaken gradually during the next few hours.

The upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Milton toward the northeast east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Milton will make landfall in a few hours on the west coast of Florida near or just to the south of Tampa.

Even though Hurricane Milton weakened today, Milton is still expected to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.   Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.   Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

Milton will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.  The highest storm surge is likely to occur along the portion of the coast just to the south of Tampa.  A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2,4 to 3.7 meters) could occur in Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Yankeetown, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Milton have already produced tornadoes over South Florida.  A Tornado Watch is in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie intensified east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 49.0°W which put the center about 955 miles (1535 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Hurricane Milton Moves Toward West Coast of Florida

Hurricane Milton was moving toward the west coast of Florida on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 84.3°W which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Hurricane Milton started to weaken gradually on Wednesday morning, but Milton was still a powerful, dangerous hurricane.  An upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Milton’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The upper level winds were also inhibiting the upper level divergence to the west of Hurricane Milton.  The wind shear was causing Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually.

Even though Hurricane Milton was weakening gradually, it was still a major hurricane.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Milton.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Milton’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Milton generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Although Hurricane Milton is weakening, the circulation around Milton is getting larger.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.3.  Hurricane Milton is similar in intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.  Milton is much larger than Charley was.

Hurricane Milton will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will cause Hurricane Milton to weaken gradually during the next 12 hours.

The upper level trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Milton toward the northeast east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Milton will make landfall on Wednesday night on the west coast of Florida near or just to the south of Tampa.

Even though Hurricane Milton will weaken today, Milton is still expected to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.  Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.  Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

Milton will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.  The highest storm surge is likely to occur along the portion of the coast just to the south of Tampa>  A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2,4 to 3.7 meters) could occur in Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Yankeetown, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern periphery of Hurricane Milton were already producing tornadoes over South Florida.  A Tornado Watch is in effect for the southern half of the Florida Peninsula.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie intensified east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 48.4°W which put the center about 985 miles (1585 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Hurricane Milton Strengthens Back to Cat. 5

Hurricane Milton strengthened back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after completing an eyewall replacement cyclone on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 87.5°W which put the center about 480 miles (775 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida.  Milton was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 905 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Martin/Palm Beach County Line, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Dzilam to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the extreme Northwestern Bahamas including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Hurricane Milton strengthened back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday afternoon after an eyewall replacement cycle was completed.  A new eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Milton.  Storms near the center of Milton’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to remain very low.

The completion of the eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Milton to increase a little more.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 36.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 48.5.  Hurricane Milton is stronger than Hurricane Michael was when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Milton is not quite as big as Michael was.  Hurricane Milton is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Otis when Otis hit Acapulco last year.

Hurricane Milton move through an environment favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 18 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Milton will could intensify a little more during the next 18 hours.  An upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Milton’s circulation later on Wednesday.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase and Hurricane Milton is likely to start to weaken on Wednesday afternoon.  In addition, the inner end of another rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form again, then another eyewall replacement cycle will cause Hurricane Milton to weaken faster.  However, if an another eyewall replacement cycle occurs, then the size of Milton’s circulation will increase again.

The upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will start to steer Milton more quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will reach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday night.  Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Hurricane Milton will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.  Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida. Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for many of the counties in Central Florida.  Those Hurricane Warnings include Orlando.

Milton will be capable of causing major damage. Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie was still churning west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 46.4°W which put the center about 1490 miles (2400 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings Issued for Florida’s West Coast Because of Cat. 5 Milton

Hurricane Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings were issued for the west coast of Florida because of the threat posed by Category 5 Hurricane Milton.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 90.8°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Milton was moving toward the east-southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (345 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 905 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Tampa Bay.  AA Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Rio Lagartos, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the St. Lucie. Indian River County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line, Florida.   A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Hurricane Milton continued to intensify late on Monday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Milton.  Storms near the center of Milton’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Hurricane Milton is a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 42.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 52.8.  Hurricane Milton is stronger than Hurricane Michael was when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Milton is not quite as big as Michael was.

Hurricane Milton move through an environment favorable fora powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Milton will could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.  However, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle will cause Hurricane Milton to weaken.  If an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, then the size of Milton’s circulation will get larger.

An upper level trough over the central U.S. will start to steer Milton more quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will reach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday evening.  Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Hurricane Milton will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida.  Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.  Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida.  Milton will be capable of causing major damage. Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Leslie was slowly weakening.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 42.1°W which put the center about 1185 miles (1910 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Hurricane Milton Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on on Monday morning.  At 12:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Milton was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 91.6°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Milton was moving toward the east-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Rio Lagartos, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Campeche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Florida.

Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Milton’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Milton.  Storms near the center of Milton’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Hurricane Milton was a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Milton’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Milton.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Milton is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 45.6. Hurricane Milton is as strong as Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Milton is not quite as big as Michael was.

Hurricane Milton move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Milton will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Milton could continue to intensify rapidly for a few more hours.

An upper level trough over the central U.S. will start to steer Milton more quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Milton will reach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.  Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida.

Hurricane Milton will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida. Milton will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Florida. Milton will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Florida. Milton will be capable of causing major damage. Heavy rains will cause floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of the Florida Peninsula.

Milton will also produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to the Mouth of the Suwanee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Kirk was making an transition to a strong extratropical cyclone and Hurricane Leslie was spinning west of the Azores.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Kirk was located at latitude 41.7°N and longitude 38.4°W which put the center about 655 miles (1055 km) west-northwest of the Azores.  Kirk was moving toward the northeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

At !!:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 41.2°W which put the center about 1120 miles (1805 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.