Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Tropical Depression Seventeen Forms East of Leeward Islands

Tropical Depression Seventeen formed well east of the Leeward Islands on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 41.5°W which put it about 1475 miles (2290 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  The depression was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation around a large low pressure system over the tropical Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands exhibited more organization on Sunday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Seventeen.  The circulation around the depression was still organizing.  There was a broad center of rotation in the middle of the circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving the broad center.  The strongest thunderstorms were in bands on the eastern side of the depression.  Storms in bands around the broad center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Seventeen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The large size of the tropical depression and the broad center of circulation will limit the rate at which the depression intensifies.  Tropical Depression Seventeen is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm on Monday.

Tropical Depression Seventeen will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression slowly toward the west during the next day or two.  There is a large circulation around a strong tropical wave to the east of Tropical Depression Seventeen.  It is possible that the tropical wave strengthens into a tropical cyclone.  If that happens, then the large circulation could pull the depression back to the east or at least retard its movement toward the west.  On its anticipated track the tropical depression could be northeast of the Leeward islands in a few days.

Tropical Storm Nana Moves Over Guatemala

Tropical Storm Nana moved over Guatemala on Thursday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 90.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north of Guatemala City, Guatemala.  Nana was moving toward the west t 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

After making landfall in southern Belize as a hurricane on Wednesday night, Tropical Storm Nana moved westward over northern Guatemala.  The small circulation around Nana weakened steadily on Thursday.  Tropical Storm Nana was dropping locally heavy rain over Guatemala on Thursday afternoon.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nana will weaken to a tropical depression within a few hours.  Nana will continue to move toward the west.  It could emerge over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Omar moved away from Bermuda.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located at latitude 35.9°N and longitude 61.1°W which put it about 335 miles (540 km) northeast of Bermuda.  Omar was moving toward the east at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Nana Strengthens to a Hurricane Near Belize

Former Tropical Storm Nana strengthened into a hurricane as it neared a landfall in Belize.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Nana was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southeast of Belize City, Belize.  Nana was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City to the Belize/Guatemala border.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City to the Belize/Mexico border.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City to Belize/Mexico border.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala, Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the north coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the border with Guatemala.

Former Tropical Storm Nana moved into a more favorable environment on Wednesday night and strengthened to a hurricane.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation and those thunderstorms helped to spin up the circulation.  Since the circulation around Hurricane Nana was relatively small, it was able to spin up into a hurricane in a few hours.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) on the northern side of Nana.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Nana has a few more hours when it could strengthen before it makes landfall in southern Belize.  Nana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be less vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Nana could get a little stronger.

Hurricane Nana will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Nana a little to the south of due west.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Nana will make landfall on the coast of Belize south of Belize City early on Wednesday morning.  Nana will be capable of causing localized wind damage.  It could cause a storm surge of up to eight feet (2.6 meters) along the south coast of Belize.  Hurricane Nana will drop heavy rain over parts of southern Belize and northern Guatemala.  Flash floods could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere over the North Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Omar weakened to a tropical depression north of Bermuda.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located at latitude 36.1°N and longitude 64.1°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) north of Bermuda.  Omar was moving toward the east at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Nana Strengthens, Hurricane Watch Issued for Belize

Tropical Storm Nana strengthened on Tuesday night and a Hurricane Watch was issued for Belize.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 80.9°W which put it about 485 miles (775 km) east of Belize City, Belize.  Nana was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the entire coast of Belize.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Belize.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala and for the north coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the border with Guatemala including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands.

Tropical Storm Nana continued to strengthen on Tuesday night.  There were signs that a small eye might be starting to form in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Nana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Nana is likely to intensify into a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Nana will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Nana toward the west during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nana will pass north of Honduras.  Nana could approach Belize on Wednesday night.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Omar continued to move away from North Carolina.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located at latitude 35.8°N and longitude 70.0°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Omar was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Nana Forms South of Jamaica

Tropical Storm Nana formed over the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 78.4°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) south of Negril, Jamaica.  Nana was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the entire coast of Belize.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for the north coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the border with Guatemala including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight into a low pressure system south of Jamaica found a defined low level center of circulation and winds to tropical storm force on Tuesday.  Based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft the National Hurricane Center designated the system Tropical Storm Nana.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Nana was organizing quickly.  Thunderstorms were developing near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Nana.

Tropical Storm Nana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Nana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Nana will continue to intensify and it is likely to strengthen to a hurricane within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Nana will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Nana toward the west during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nana will pass north of Honduras on Wednesday.  Nana could reach Belize on Thursday and it is likely to be a hurricane by that time.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Fifteen moved away from the East Coast of the U.S.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located at latitude 34.7°N and longitude 73.1°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  The depression was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Depression Fifteen Forms South of Cape Hatteras

Tropical Depression Fifteen formed south of Cape Hatteras on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located at latitude 32.6°N and longitude 76.5°W which put it about 190 miles (305 km) south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  The depression was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters’ reconnaissance flight found that there was a closed low level circulation in a low pressure system south of Cape Hatteras and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Fifteen.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Fifteen was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the low level center of circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Fifteen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move near the southern periphery of the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those winds will blow toward the top of the depression and they will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be enough to prevent the depression from strengthening.  Tropical Depression Fifteen will likely strengthen into a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Fifteen will move around the northern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the east-northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the depression will move away from the U.S. and it will pass north of Bermuda.

Laura Weakens to Tropical Storm over Arkansas

Former Hurricane Laura weakened to a tropical storm over Arkansas on Thursday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 92.8°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west-southwest of El Dorado, Arkansas.  Laura was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

All coastal Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

Hurricane Laura caused significant wind damage over southwestern Louisiana.  The largest concentration of damage appeared to be around Lake Charles, Louisiana.  There were reports that the dome for the weather radar at the National Weather Service office in Lake Charles sustained heavy damage.  The Automated Surface Observing Station (ASOS) at Lake Charles reported a peak wind speed of 133 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  There were also reports of widespread power outages in Louisiana and eastern Texas.

Former Hurricane Laura gradually weakened as it moved inland over Louisiana.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Laura was still well organized.  However, drier air was wrapping around the western and southern sides of the circulation.  The heavier rains and stronger winds were north and east of the center of Laura.  Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of Arkansas, western Tennessee, western Kentucky and extreme southeastern Missouri.

Tropical Storm Laura will turn more toward the east when it reaches southern Missouri on Friday.  Westerly winds in the middle latitudes will carry Laura toward the east coast of the U.S.  Tropical Storm Laura could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to West Virginia on Saturday.

Powerful Hurricane Laura Makes Landfall in Southwest Louisiana

Powerful Hurricane Laura made landfall in southwest Louisiana on Wednesday night.  At 2:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Laura was located at latitude 29.8°N and longitude 93.3°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Lake Charles, Louisiana.  Laura was moving toward the north at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas and from Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

The center of Hurricane Laura officially made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana on Tuesday night.  Hurricane Laura was the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall on the coast of southwest Louisiana.  Laura was stronger than Hurricane Rita was when Rita made landfall in the same area in September 2005.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Laura was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.2.  Hurricane Laura was capable of causing widespread extensive damage.

A NOAA National Ocean Service weather station at Calcasieu Pass measured a sustained wind speed of 93 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and a wind gust of 127 m.p.h. (204 km/h) during the passage of the northern eyewall.  The station also recorded a water rise of over 10 feet (3 meters).  The National Weather Service station at the Lake Charles airport measured a wind gust of 104 m.p.h. (167 km/h) during the passage of an inner rainband.  There were numerous reports of power outages.

Hurricane Laura will move inland over western Louisiana on Thursday.  The center of Laura will move over southern Arkansas by Thursday night.  Hurricane Laura will continue to cause a significant storm surge along the coast of Louisiana on Thursday morning.  Laura could produce hurricane force winds in Alexandria, Louisiana.  It could bring strong tropical storm force winds to Shreveport and Monroe.  Hurricane Laura will also drop heavy rain over Louisiana and parts of Arkansas.  Flash floods could occur in some locations.

Hurricane Laura Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Laura rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Laura was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 92.5°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south-southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana.  Laura was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis, Pass, Texas to Intracoastal City, Lousiana.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Sargent, Texas to San Luis Pass and from Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

Hurricane Laura continued to intensify rapidly on Wednesday morning.  The eye became more circular and well defined.  The ring of thunderstorms around the eye strengthened and the highest wind speeds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Storms near the core of Laura generated strong upper level divergence which pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The continued removal of mass allowed a further rapid decrease in surface pressure.

Hurricane Laura grew into a large hurricane on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Laura.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Laura was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.4.  Hurricane Laura was capable of causing widespread significant damage.

Hurricane Laura could strengthen during the next few hours.  Laura will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  There is a possibility that Hurricane Laura could intensify to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  When Hurricane Laura nears the coast of western Louisiana, it will be closer to an upper level trough over Texas and Oklahoma.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Laura.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase and that could stop the intensification of Hurricane Laura.

Hurricane Laura will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system that extends from the Atlantic Ocean over the Gulf of Mexico.  Laura will start to move towards the north when it reaches the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Laura will make landfall south of Lake Charles, Louisiana in 8 to 10 hours.  After it makes landfall, Laura will move north over western Louisiana.

Hurricane Laura is a strong, extremely dangerous hurricane.  It is capable of causing widespread significant damage.  Laura will be stronger than Hurricane Rita was when Rita hit the same area in 2005.  Hurricane Laura will cause a storm surge of 15 to 20 feet (5 to 7 meters) near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Large sections of the southwest coast of Louisiana south of Interstate 10 will go underwater.  Hurricane Laura will bring hurricane force winds to much of western Louisiana and to extreme east Texas.  Widespread power outages are likely.  Hurricane Laura will drop heavy rain over parts of western Louisiana, eastern Texas and Arkansas.  Flash floods could result from the heavy rain

Hurricane Laura Rapidly Intensifies into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Laura rapidly intensified into a major hurricane during the overnight hours.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Laura was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 91.4°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south-southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana.  Laura was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis, Pass, Texas to Intracoastal City, Lousiana.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Sargent, Texas to San Luis Pass and from Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

Hurricane Laura strengthened rapidly over the warm water in the Central Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Laura.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Laura.   Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly, which caused Laura to rapidly intensify.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Laura also increased during the overnight hours.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation).  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Laura was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.7.  Hurricane Laura was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Hurricane Laura will continue to move through an environment favorable for intensification today.  Laura will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Laura could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  When Hurricane Laura approaches the coast it will get closer to an upper level trough over Texas and Oklahoma.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Laura.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and Hurricane Laura could start to weaken just before it makes landfall.

Hurricane Laura will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system that extends from the Atlantic Ocean over the Gulf of Mexico.  Laura will move toward the north-northwest as it approaches the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Laura will make landfall near the border between Louisiana and Texas tonight.

Hurricane Laura will be capable of causing major damage over western Louisiana and eastern Texas.  Strong winds could cause widespread power outages.  Wind blowing water toward the coast will cause a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Laura will drop locally heavy rain when it moves inland and flash floods could occur in some locations.

The wind speed in Hurricane Laura will be similar to the winds in Hurricane Harvey when Harvery made landfall on the coast of Texas in 2017.  Laura will be bigger than Harvey was.  The winds in Hurricane Laura could be stronger than the winds were in Hurricane Rita when Rita hit the same area in 2005.  However, Rita had intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, but it was weakening when it made landfall.  Laura will not be as big as Rita was in 2005.