Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Keeps Moving Toward Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy continued to move toward Mozambique on Thursday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 38.7°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of Quelimane, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved through a region of drier air and weakened on Wednesday. However, Freddy moved into a moister environment on Thursday morning and it began to strengthen again. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be forming at the center of Freddy. More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (270 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Freddy will move into a moister air mass that will be more favorable for intensification. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify the next 24 hours while it moves through the drier air. Freddy is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique near Quelimane in 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of central Mozambique. Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Freddy could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves Toward Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved toward Mozambique on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 20.8°S and longitude 40.0°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) southeast of Quelimane, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved toward the coast of central Mozambique on Wednesday morning. Freddy appeared to be moving into a region of drier air. The ring of thunderstorms around the eye was broken and bands in the western half of Freddy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Most thunderstorms were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center of Freddy’s circulation continued to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.5. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be marginal for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air in the western half of Freddy’s circulation will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours while it moves through the drier air. Freddy could strengthen again on Thursday if it moves into a more humid environment.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique near Quelimane in 42 hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of central Mozambique. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Freddy could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 42.0°E which put it about 110 miles (185 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon west of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) formed at the center of Freddy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy became more symmetrical when Freddy intensified rapidly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.3.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours. Freddy is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will gradually move farther away from Madagascar. Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique near Pebane by the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Stalls West of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy stalled west of Madagascar on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 23.8°S and longitude 42.6°E which put it about 110 miles (185 km) west-southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy gradually strengthened on Monday while it was stalled west of Madagascar. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Freddy’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 24 hours. Freddy is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will gradually move farther away from Madagascar on Tuesday. Freddy could approach the coast of Mozambique by the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Brings Wind and Rain to Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy brought wind and rain to southwest Madagascar on Sunday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 23.8°S and longitude 43.0°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) west-southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy brought wind and rain to southwest Madagascar on Sunday night, when the center of Freddy stalled just off the coast. An upper level trough over southern Africa was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was affecting both the vertical and the horizontal structure of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The wind shear was causing the vertical structure of Freddy to tilt to the southeast with height. So, the center of circulation in the middle troposphere was southeast of the center near the surface. The wind shear was also causing the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetric. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Bands in the western side of Freddy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an area where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours. The center of Freddy’s circulation is likely to meander just west of the coast of southwest Madagascar on Monday. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to drop heavy rain over southwest Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A high pressure system south of Madagascar will start to push Freddy back toward the northwest in a day or so. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy could approach Mozambique by the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, the upper level trough over southern Africa will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification during the next 24 hours. The upper level winds will be weaker when Freddy moves northwest later this week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is forecast to intensify when the wind shear decreases. Freddy could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the middle of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Redevelops over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Freddy redeveloped over the Mozambique Channel on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 39.8°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the east-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

After meandering over Mozambique for a week, the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Freddy emerged over the Mozambique Channel. More thunderstorms began to form once Freddy’s circulation moved back over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened back to the equivalent of a tropical storm on Saturday morning. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Freddy. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Freddy was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were forming in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Freddy’s circulation. Bands in the northern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move over the southern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will produce westerly winds that will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent Freddy from getting stronger. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours. Freddy could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the southwest Indian Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move closer to southern Madagascar during the weekend. A second high pressure system south of Madagascar will block Freddy before the center gets to Madagascar. The second high pressure system will push Tropical Cyclone Freddy back toward Mozambique during the early part of next week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Drops Heavy Rain on Southern Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy dropped heavy rain on southern Mozambique on Saturday. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.4°S and longitude 33.5°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northeast of Chigubo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy dropped heavy rain on parts of southern Mozambique on Saturday. Freddy stalled over southern Mozambique after it moved inland. Even though Tropical Cyclone Freddy weakened after it moved inland, the circulation around Freddy was still well organized. The heaviest rain was falling in bands of thunderstorms in the eastern side of Freddy’s circulation. Persistent heavy rain in some locations was increasing the risk of flash floods. The strongest winds were also occurring in bands of thunderstorms over the Mozambique Channel.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Enala weakened south-southeast of Rodrigues. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enala was located at latitude 26.6°S and longitude 67.7°E which put it about 545 miles (880 km) south-southeast of Rodrigues. Enala was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Hits Southern Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy hit southern Mozambique on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 34.6°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it hit the coast of southern Mozambique on Friday morning. The center of Freddy’s circulation made landfall on the coast about 40 miles (65 km) south of Vilankulo. A circular eye was at the center of circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move north of a high pressure system over southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move farther inland over southern Mozambique. The center of Freddy’s circulation will pass near Tesenane and Chigubo. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland. Freddy will produce gusty winds and heavy rain over southern Mozambique. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Enala moved east-southeast of Rodrigues. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enala was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 70.2°E which put it about 495 miles (800 km) east-southeast of Rodrigues. Enala was moving toward the south-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Strengthens near Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened near the coast of Mozambique on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 37.1°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy continued to intensify on Thursday evening as it moved closer to the coast of Mozambique. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Freddy’s circulation. An eye appeared to be forming again at the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 10 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 10 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will reach the coast of Mozambique in 10 hours. The center of Freddy will make landfall between Vilankulo and Pomene. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall. Freddy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Mozambique. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast between Vilankulo and Pomene.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Enala intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved farther away from Diego Garcia. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enala was located at latitude 20.3°S and longitude 70.9°E which put it about 870 miles (1405 km) south of Diego Garcia. Enala was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Strengthens over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.4°S and longitude 38.8°E which put it about 235 miles (380 km) east of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened again over warm water in the Mozambique Channel on Thursday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Freddy’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 12 hours. Freddy could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique in 15 hours. The center of Freddy will make landfall near Vilankulo. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall. Freddy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Mozambique. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast near Vilankulo.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Enala moved farther away from Diego Garcia. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enala was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 705 miles (1135 km) south of Diego Garcia. Enala was moving toward the south-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.