Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes South of the Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed south of the Cocos Islands on Sunday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 94.1°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Cocos Islands. Freddy was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy weakened a little as it passed south of the Cocos Islands on Sunday night. Freddy was moving under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The ridge produced stronger easterly winds that blew toward the top of Freddy’s circulation during Sunday night. Those winds caused more vertical wind shear and the shear caused Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken a little. The wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Freddy’s circulation to become more asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Some of the bands in the eastern side of Freddy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours. The wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken during the next 24 hours. Freddy could move into a region were the upper level winds are weaker later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move farther away from the Cocos Islands. Freddy could be south of Diego Garcia by the end of the week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani was passing east of Rodrigues. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 73.2°E which put it about 660 miles (1060 km) east of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Dingani strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 75.2°E which put it about 810 miles (1310 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) developed at the center of Dingani’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Dingani. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dingani. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dingani will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge. Tropical Cyclone Dingani is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Dingani could intensify rapidly at times, since it now has a well developed inner core with an eye and an eyewall.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dingani toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dingani could pass east of Rodrigues early next week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Freddy was southeast of Cocos Islands. Freddy was the equivalent of a major hurricane. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 98.3°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) southeast of Cocos Islands. Freddy was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east-southeast of Cocos Islands on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 102.5°E which put it about 450 miles (720 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Freddy was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) formed at the center of Freddy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds occurred in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.5.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours. Since the circulation around Freddy is small, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Tropical Cyclone to weaken during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be south of Cocos Islands in 36 hours. The core of Freddy and the strongest winds will pass south of Cocos Islands. Bands on the northern edge of Freddy’s circulation could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Cocos Islands.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani moved south-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 77.8°E which put it about 740 miles (1195 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Dingani was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani Forms over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Dingani formed over the South Indian Ocean south-southeast of Diego Garcia on Thursday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 88.6°E which put it about 1305 miles (2110 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Dingani was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean strengthened on Thursday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Dingani. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Dingani was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Dingani’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Dingani consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone Dingani was moving under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Dingani’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Dingani will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Dingani could strengthen gradually during the next 36 hours, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger. If the upper level winds get stronger, then Dingani will not intensify.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dingani toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dingani will pass far south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved farther away from Western Australia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 109.3°E which put it about 560 miles (900 km) north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves Away from Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved away from Western Australia on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 112.7°E which put it about 440 miles (710 km) north of Learmonth, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy started to weaken as it moved away from Western Australia on Wednesday morning. Freddy was moving under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over Australia. The upper level ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Freddy to become asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Freddy’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Freddy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over Australia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken during the next 24 hours. The wind shear could lessen when Freddy moves farther west on Friday. If the shear lessens, then Tropical Cyclone Freddy could start to intensify again.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle strengthened over the Coral Sea. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 152.8°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Gabrielle was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is forecast to move toward the southeast and to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 14.1°S and longitude 117.2°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) northwest of Broome, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of Freddy’s circulation. A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’ circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours and it is likely to strengthen rapidly at times. Freddy could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will stay northwest of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Develops Rapidly North of Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy developed rapidly over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia on Monday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 118.4°E which put it about 440 miles (710 km) northwest of Broome, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia strengthened rapidly on Monday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Freddy’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen rapidly at times. Freddy is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will stay north of Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, a Tropical Low (also designated as Invest 94S) was east of Cocos Islands. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 12.5°S and longitude 99.9°E which put it about 210 miles (335 km) east of Cocos Islands. The Tropical Low was moving toward the southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb. The Tropical Low is forecast to turn toward the southwest and to strengthen to a tropical cyclone later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Could Form East of Sri Lanka

A tropical cyclone could form over the Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka during the next 24 hours. A low pressure system over the southern Bay of Bengal was designated as Invest 90B on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the low pressure system was located at latitude 8.5°N and longitude 84.5°E which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east-northeast of Batticaloa, Sri Lanka. The low pressure system was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka strengthened on Monday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the low pressure system and the inner end of a rainband wrapped partly around the center of circulation. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the low pressure system.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge centered over Southeast Asia. The ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit somewhat the formation of a tropical cyclone. However, the wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent the low pressure system from strengthening into a tropical cyclone. Invest 90B could strengthen to a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The low pressure system will move south of a strong high pressure system over southern Asia. The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the west-southwest. On its anticipated track the low pressure system could reach the east coast of Sri Lanka within 24 hours. The low pressure system will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Sri Lanka. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Strengthens Back to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon southwest of Madagascar on Friday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 26.2°S and longitude 42.0°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) west-southwest of Tsiombe, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday night after it moved away from cooler water it had mixed to the surface of the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar. A circular eye formed at the center of Cheneso’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso appeared to be pulling drier air around the northern side of its circulation. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Cheneso. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C during the next 24 hours. However, Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will start to move over colder water on Sunday. An upper level trough near southern Africa will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Cheneso’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of colder water and more vertical wind shear will cause tropical cyclone Cheneso to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Cheneso toward the southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Cheneso will pass south of Madagascar on Saturday night. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move quickly away from Madagascar on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Spins West of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was spinning west of southern Madagascar on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 23.0°S and longitude 41.6°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) west-northwest of Taliara, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was spinning over the Mozambique Channel west of southern Madagascar on Friday morning. Cheneso was starting to move away from cooler water that it mixed to the surface of the Mozambique Channel while it was stationary earlier this week. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Cheneso’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming again. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Storms near the core generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Cheneso.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be under the western end of an upper level ridge that is centered east of Madagascar. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Cheneso’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the south. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will remain west of Madagascar. Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Cheneso could produce locally heavy rain over southern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

An upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Cheneso toward the southeast during the weekend. The trough will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Cheneso will move over cooler water when it moves southeast. A combination of more vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Tropical Cyclone Cheneso to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the weekend.