Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Moves West Across South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moved westward across the South Indian Ocean on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 73.1°E which put it about 655 miles (1060 km) east of Rodrigues. Batsirai was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai weakened almost as fast during the past 24 hours as it had intensified previously. The tiny pinhole eye collapsed and the distribution of thunderstorms became asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and southern parts of Batsirai’s circulation. Bands in the northeastern part of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Batsirai.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to intensify during the next 48 hours. It could strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could be near Rodrigues within 72 hours. Batsirai could approach Mauritius in five days. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it affects Rodrigues and Mauritius. Batsirai could also eventually affect La Reunion and Madagascar later next week.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 79.7°E which put it about 1090 miles (1760 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after it developed over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday night. A tiny pinhole eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) quickly formed at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. The strongest winds were occurring about 6 miles (10 km) from the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was very small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.4.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours. However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Batsirai to weaken. Since the circulation around Batsirai is very small, if the tropical cyclone moves into a less favorable environment, it could weaken rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach Rodrigues, Mauritius, La Reunion and eventually Madagascar next week. Batsirai could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches those places.

Tropical Cyclone Ana Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Ana brought wind and rain to northern Mozambique on Monday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana was located at latitude 16.4°S and longitude 38.6°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) west of Moma, Mozambique. Ana was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Ana made landfall on the coast of northern Mozambique between Angoche and Moma on Monday morning. Ana was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Ana’s circulation. The strongest winds were occurring over the Mozambique Channel. The winds were weaker over land. Thunderstorms in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Ana were dropping heavy rain over parts of northern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Ana will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ana toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana will move across northern Mozambique and southern Malawi. The center of Ana could pass near Mualama, Mucubela, and Mocuba. Tropical Cyclone Ana will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland. Ana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Mozambique, southern Malawi and northern Zimbabwe. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Weather conditions over the Mozambique Channel should improve slowly as Tropical Cyclone Ana moves farther inland.

Tropical Depression Brings Rain to Madagascar

A tropical depression, which is also designated as Invest 93S, brought rain to Madagascar on Saturday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 46.7°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) northwest of Antananaviro, Madagascar. It was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over northern Madagascar strengthened on Saturday and Meteo France La Reunion classified the system as tropical depression. The low pressure system was designated as Invest 93S by some other meteorological agencies. The center of the low pressure system was over Madagascar on Saturday afternoon. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the tropical depression. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical depression. Some of the bands were dropping heavy rain over northern Madagascar and flash floods were possible.

The tropical depression is not likely to strengthen further during the next few hours while it is over Madagascar. The depression will move into an environment favorable for intensification on Sunday when it moves over the Mozambique Channel. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The tropical depression could strengthen to the equivalent of a tropical storm after it moves over the Mozambique Channel.

The tropical depression will move around the northern side of a surface high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the tropical depression will move across northern Madagascar on Saturday night. The center of the depression will move over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday. The depression could approach the coast of Mozambique within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Forecast to Develop, Hit Northern Madagascar

A tropical cyclone is forecast to develop over the South Indian Ocean and to hit northern Madagascar during the weekend. The system is currently a low pressure system designated as Invest 93S. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Invest 93S was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 59.0°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) north-northeast of Mauritius. It was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (60 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system, currently designated as Invest 93S, over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Mauritius is forecast to move west toward northern Madagascar and to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 72 hours. The distribution of thunderstorms around the low pressure system is currently asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms are occurring in bands in the western side of the low pressure system. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consist primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the western half of the system generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the low pressure system.

Invest 93S will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is currently contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. However, the vertical wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent Invest 93S from developing into a tropical cyclone.

Invest 93S will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Invest 93S could reach the coast of northeastern Madagascar within 72 hours. Invest 93S is forecast to be a tropical cyclone when it reaches northern Madagascar. It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar during the weekend. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Passes South of Christmas Island

Tropical Cyclone Teratai passed south of Christmas Island on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 104.4°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) south-southwest of Christmas Island. Teratai was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai weakened slowly as it passed over the South Indian Ocean south of Christmas Island on Wednesday. Thunderstorms were occurring in a couple of bands in the western half of Teratai’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Teratai.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C during the next 24 hours. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours, but it will move over cooler water later this week. When Teratai moves over cooler water, the reduction in available energy and the vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Teratai to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move farther away from Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Redevelops South of Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Teratai redeveloped south of Indonesia on Tuesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 12.0°S and longitude 106.4°E which put it about 380 miles (615 km) south of Jakarta, Indonesia and about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Christmas Island. Teratai was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

After strong upper level winds blew the top off of former Tropical Cyclone Teratai late last week, the circulation in the lower levels made an extended clockwise loop southwest of Indonesia. More thunderstorms formed west of the low level center of circulation on Monday and the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Teratai strengthened during the past 24 hours. Data from scatterometers on satellites indicated that the wind speeds increased back to tropical storm force on Tuesday. The distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Teratai’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Teratai consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Teratai was a small tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26.5˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is already causing an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and the shear will continue to inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours, but if the wind shear increases Teratai is likely to weaken again.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move south of Christmas Island during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Jawad Spins over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Jawad was spinning over the Bay of Bengal east of India on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jawad was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 85.0°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India. Jawad was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jawad continued to spin over the Bay of Bengal east of India on Friday night. An upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal was producing southeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Jawad’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was keeping Tropical Cyclone Jawad from getting stronger. The strongest thunderstorms in Jawad were occurring in the northern half of the circulation because of the vertical wind shear. Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jawad.

Tropical Cyclone Jawad will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jawad will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will continue to produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Jawad’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to remain strong enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone Jawad from strengthening during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jawad will move around the western end of a high pressure system over southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer Jawad toward the north-northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jawad will move parallel to the east coast of India during the next 36 hours. Jawad could approach Kolkata in 72 hours. Tropical Cyclone Jawad could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal parts of northeastern Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and West Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone 05B Forms over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 05B formed over the Bay of Bengal on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05B was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 85.8°E which put it about 360 miles (580 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India. Tropical Cyclone 05B was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the central Bay of Bengal strengthened on Thursday night into Tropical Cyclone 05B. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 05B was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the tropical cyclone. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northern half of the tropical cyclone. The winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 05B will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone 05B is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. The India Meteorological Department will likely give the tropical cyclone a name on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone 05B will move around the western end of a high pressure system over southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 05B will approach the coast of India northeast of Visakhapatnam in 24 hours. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal parts of northeastern Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. Tropical Cyclone 05B will move more slowly after it nears the coast and it could turn toward the northeast during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Forms Southwest of Java

Tropical Cyclone Teratai formed over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Java on Wednesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 9.3°S and longitude 102.2°E which put it about 375 miles (605 km) southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia. Teratai was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A distinct center of circulation formed in a small low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Java on Wednesday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Teratai. Thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Shorts bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Teratai. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered north of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move into an area where drier air is sinking toward the surface of the ocean. The sinking drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours. However, the effects of the sinking air and vertical wind shear are likely to cause Teratai to weaken later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move farther away from Indonesia. Teratai could move north of Cocos Island later this week.