Category Archives: Australian Region

Tropical Cyclone Zelia Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Zelia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane near the coast of Western Australia on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 118.1°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) north-northwest of Port Hedland, Australia.  Zelia was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) formed at the center of Zelia’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of Zelia and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Zelia.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Zelia was symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Zelia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Zelia was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.4.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Zelia will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Zelia will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Zelia could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Zelis could strengthen to the equivalent of Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Zelia slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone will move closer to the coast of Western Australia.  Zelia could approach the coast between Port Hedland and Dampier in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to Dampier.  The Warning includes Port Hedland, Karratha, De Grey, and Wallal Downs.  The Warning extends inland to Marble Bar.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Dampier to Mardie.  The Watch extends inland to Nullagine and Tom Price.

Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

A Flood Warning is in effect for the De Grey River.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Pilbara coastal Rivers, the Onslow coast, the Fortescue River, the Ashburton River, and parts of the Sandy Desert.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Zelia intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near the coast of Western Australia early on Wednesday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 118.6°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia.  Zelia was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia exhibited signs of rapid intensification early on Wednesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Zelia’s circulation.  A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of Zelia and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Zelia.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Zelia was symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Zelia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Zelia will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Zelia will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Zelia could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Zelis could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Zelia slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone will move closer to the coast of Western Australia. Zelia could approach the coast between De Grey and Dampier in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to Dampier.  The Warning includes Port Hedland, Karratha, De Grey, and Wallal Downs.  The Warning extends inland to Marble Bar.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Dampier to Mardie.  The Warning extends inland to Nullagine.

Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

A Flood Warning is in effect for the De Grey River.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Pilbara coastal Rivers, the Onslow coast, the Fortescue River, the Ashburton River, and parts of the Sandy Desert.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vince made a transition to an extratropical cyclone and Tropical Cyclone Taliah continued to move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 90.3°E which put the center about 565 miles (915 km) south-southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Low Strengthens to Tropical Cyclone Zelia

A former Tropical Low near the coast of Western Australia strengthened to Tropical Cyclone Zelia on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia was located at latitude 18.7°S and longitude 118.9°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia.  Zelia was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A former Tropical Low near the coast of Western Australia strengthened on Tuesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Zelia.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Zelia’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Zelia.  Storms near the center of Zelia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Zelia became more symmetrical on Tuesday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (230 km) from the center of Zelia’s circulation.

A weather station on Rowley Shoals measured a sustained wind speed of 47 kt (54 m.p.h. or 87 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 kt (74 m.p.h. or 119 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Zelia will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Zelia will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Zelia is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Zelia slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone will move closer to the coast of Western Australia.  Zelia could approach the coast between Wallal Downs and Port Hedland in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Broome to Port Hedland.  The Warning includes Wallal Downs and De Grey.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Hedland to Dampier.  The Watch extends inland to Marble Bar.

Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the De Grey River, the Pilbara coastal Rivers, the Fortescue River and parts of the Sandy Desert.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vince continued to move farther away from Rodrigues and Tropical Cyclone Taliah continued to move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 29.5°S and longitude 70.3°E which put the center about 805 miles (1295 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Vince was moving toward the south-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). vThe minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 16.4°S and longitude 91.5°E which put the center about 435 miles (705 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Low Develops Near Western Australia

A Tropical Low developed near the coast of Western Australia on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 120.9°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a Tropical Low near the coast of Western Australia exhibited more organization on Monday.  Thunderstorms organized in bands in the southern and western parts of the Tropical Low.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that started to pump mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  The Tropical Low is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move more toward the south later this week.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will move toward the coast of Western Australia.

The Tropical Low is likely to intensify to a tropical cyclone before it reaches the coast of Western Australia.  It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia later this week.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Leveque to Port Hedland.  The Watch includes Broome, Wallal Downs, and De Grey.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the De Grey River and parts of the Sandy Desert catchments.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vince moved farther away from Rodrigues and Tropical Cyclone Taliah moved farther away from the Cocos Islands.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 25.4°S and longitude 68.6°E which put the center about 515 miles (835 km) southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Vince was moving toward the south at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 92.2°E which put the center about 330 miles (530 km) west-southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince Churns Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Vince churned over the South Indian Ocean far to the southeast of Diego Garcia on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 83.5°E which put the center about 945 miles (1525 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Vince was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Wednesday.  Vince began to intensify again after it completed the eyewall replacement cycle.  A new circular eye was present at the center of Vince’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Vince was the equivalent of a major hurricane, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Vince’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Cyclone Vince consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Vince generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince increased as a result of the eyewall replacement cycle.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Vince’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vince is 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.0.  Tropical Cyclone Vince is similar in intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.  Vince is larger than Dennis was.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vince will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Vince’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Vince is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours, unless another eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Vince toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vince will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia later this week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Taliah weakened gradually as it spun east-southeast of the Cocos Islands. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 105.5°E which put the center about 635 miles (1025 km) east-southeast of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southwest of the Cocos Islands during Monday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 89.6°E which put the center about 595 miles (960 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Vince was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane during Monday night.  Vince appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle after it intensified.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original small eye at the center of Vince’s circulation.  The small eye dissipated and a larger outer eye formed.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince weakened after the eyewalll replacement cycle.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the new larger eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Vince was asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Vince’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Vince consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Vince generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince to increase.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Vince’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vince was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.3.  Tropical Cyclone Vince was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vince will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Vince’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours, Vince is likely to weaken due to the effects of the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Vince toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vince will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia later this week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Taliah intensified as it moved farther away from Western Australia.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 110.4°E which put the center about 515 miles (830 km) north-northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Faida Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Faida brought wind and rain to Madagascar on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faida was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 49.7°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) southeast of the Toamasina, Madagascar.  Faida was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Even though the center of Tropical Cyclone Faida was just off the east coast of Madagascar on Monday night, bands in the western side of of Faida’s circulation were already over land.  Those bands brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern and central Madagascar.

The strongest winds and heaviest rain were in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Faida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Faida’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Faida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa.  The high pressure system will steer Faida toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Faida will move across Madagascar during the next 36 hours.  The center of Faida’s circulation will pass near Toamasina and Antananarivo.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of northern and central Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified southwest of the Cocos Islands and Tropical Cyclone Taliah continued to spin northwest of Australia.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 91.5°E which put the center about 465 miles (750 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Vince was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 112.4°E which put the center about 485 miles (780 km) north of Exmouth, Australia.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Taliah Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Taliah strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Monday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 113.9°E which put the center about 500 miles (800 km) north of Exmouth, Australia.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of Taliah’s circulation.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Taliah strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Most thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Taliah’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Cyclone Taliah consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Taliah generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km/h) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Taliah.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the southern part of Taliah’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Taliah will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Taliah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Taliah is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Talia toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Taliah will move farther away from Western Australia.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified south of the Cocos Islands.  4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 94.3°E which put the center about 355 miles (525 km) south-southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Vince was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah Forms Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Taliah formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 115.8°E which put the center about 445 miles (720 km) north of Karratha, Australia.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia strengthened on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Taliah.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Taliah was organizing rapidly.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Taliah’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming at the center of Taliah.  The strongest wind were occurring in the part of the rainband around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center of Taliah generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Taliah was fairly large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Taliah’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Taliah will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge west of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Taliah will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Taliah is likely to intensify rapidly to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Talia toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Taliah will move farther away from Western Australia.

 

Tropical Cyclone Sean Continues to Weaken

Tropical Cyclone Sean continued to weaken steadily on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sean was located at latitude 28.5°S and longitude 107.4°E which put the center about 440 miles (740 km) west of Geraldton, Australia.  Sean was moving toward the south-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The effects of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Sean to continue to weaken on Wednesday.  An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Sean’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong upper level winds also blew the tops off of thunderstorms that had been in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Sean.  Bands revolving around the center of Sean’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Sean.

Tropical Cyclone Sean will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Sean will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  It will move under the eastern part of the upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds are that will blow toward the top of Sean’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combination of cooler water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Sean to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Sean will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Sean toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Sean will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.