Monthly Archives: November 2019

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi Almost a Typhoon Near Northern Luzon

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was almost a typhoon as it neared northern Luzon on Sunday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 123.2°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was on the verge of strengthening into a typhoon on Sunday night.  The inner end of a band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi will move through an environment favorable for intensification for anther 12 to 24 hours.  Kalmaegi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Kalmaegi is likely to strengthen into a typhoon on Monday.

A ridge of high pressure will steer Tropical Storm Kalmaegi toward the northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi will make a landfall on the north coast of Luzon near Aparri in about 24 hours.  Kalmaegi will weaken after the center moves over land.  When Tropical Storm Kalmaegi weakens a strong northeasterly flow in the lower levels will steer the tropical storm back toward the southwest.  Tropical Storm Kalmaegi will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain over northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Low Pressure Developing East of the Leeward Islands

A low pressure system was developing east of the Leeward Islands on Sunday night.  The low pressure system was centered about 550 miles (890 km) east of the Leeward Islands.  The structure of the low pressure system was still organizing.  Thunderstorms were forming in bands southeast of the low level center of circulation.  Bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The low level center appeared to be located east of a small upper level low.  The upper low was causing southerly winds which were creating vertical wind shear over the western half of the surface center.  Some upper level divergence appeared to be occurring over the eastern half of the low level circulation.  The upper level divergence could be contributing to the development of the thunderstorms in that region.

The low pressure system will move through an environment somewhat favorable for development during the next several days.  The low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move into a region where the upper level winds will not be too strong and there will not be too much vertical wind shear.  The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a 50% probability that a tropical or subtropical cyclone forms during the next five days.

The upper level low will steer the developing low pressure system toward the northwest on Monday.  A much large upper level trough off the east coast of the U.S. will steer the low pressure system more toward the north on Tuesday and Wednesday.  On its anticipated track the low pressure system will pass northeast of the Leeward Islands early next week.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi Strengthens East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi strengthened east of Luzon on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 125.2°E which put it about 300 miles (185 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

After meandering for days east of Luzon, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi began to strengthen on Saturday night.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms strengthened and wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of circulation.   Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  Bands in the western half of the circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Kalmaegi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will slow the rate of intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Kalmaegi could strengthen into a typhoon during the next 36 hours.

The ridge over the Western Pacific Ocean will steer Tropical Storm Kalmaegi toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kalmaegi could approach northern Luzon in about 36 hours.  Kalmaegi could be a typhoon by that time.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Fengshen was speeding away from Iwo To.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Fengshen was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 153.1°E which put it about 690 miles (1110 km) east-northeast of Iwo To.  Fengshen was moving toward the east at 31 m.p.h. (50 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Typhoon Fengshen Strengthens into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Fengshen strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Fengshen was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 142.9°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) south-southeast of Io To.  Fengshen was moving toward the north at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Fengshen strengthened quickly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.  An eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) developed at the center of Fengshen.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Fengshen.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Fengshen increased in size on Friday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225) km from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Fengshen was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.8.

Typhoon Fengshen may have reached its peak intensity.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be suffiicient energy in the upper levels of the Western Pacific to support intensification.  However, a large upper level trough southwest of Japan will move toward Fengshen.  The trough will produce strong southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the typhoon.  Those winds will cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Typhoon Fengshen to being to weaken.

A ridge of high pressure east of Typhoon Fengshen and the upper level trough southwest of Japan will interact to steer the typhoon toward the northeast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Fengshen which contains the strongest winds will pass southeast of Iwo To.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi moved very slowly toward northern Luzon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 125.9°E which put it about 345 miles (555 km) southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

TD 20-E Strengthens into Tropical Storm Raymond

Tropical Depression Twenty-E strengthened into Tropical Storm Raymond on Friday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 108.8°W which put it about 610 miles (985 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Raymond was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Raymond exhibited greater organization on Friday morning.  More thunderstorms developed close to the center of circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  More of the stronger thunderstorms were forming in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  There were fewer thunderstorms in the bands around the western side of Raymond.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern half of the tropical storm.  Wind speeds on the western side of the circulation were mostly less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Raymond will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Raymond will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  it will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Raymond is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Raymond will move around the western side of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Raymond toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Raymond will move slowly toward the southern tip of Baja California.

Typhoon Fengshen Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Marianas

Typhoon Fengshen brought wind and rain to the Northern Marianas on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Typhoon Fengshen was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 143.3°E which put it about 385 miles (620 km) south-southeast of Iwo To.  Fengshen was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Typhoon Fengshen intensified rapidly into a typhoon on Thursday as it moved over the Northern Marianas.  Fengshen brought strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to Alamagan, Agrihan and Pagan.  There was a small circular eye at the center of Typhoon Fengshen.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fengshen.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center.

Typhoon Fengshen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Fengshen could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.

Typhoon Fengshen will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Fengshen toward the north during the next 24 hours.  The typhoon will move toward the northeast on Saturday after it moves around the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Fengshen will be south of Iwo To in about 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi move closer to northern Luzon.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 125.0°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Depression Twenty-E formed south of Baja California on Thursday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 108.4°W which put it about 690 miles (1110 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h.(8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Thursday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twenty-E.  The circulation around the depression was still organizing.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of the depression.   The thunderstorms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression.  Other thunderstorms were developing in bands around the circulation.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The depression is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm on Friday.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer the depression toward the north.  On its anticipated track the depression will move slowly toward the southern tip of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Fengshen Prompts Typhoon Warning for Northern Marianas

Tropical Storm Fengshen prompted the National Weather Service Office in Guam to issue a Typhoon Warning for portions of the Northern Marianas on Wednesday night.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 149.0°E which put it about 265 miles (430 km) east of Alamagan.  Fengshen was moving toward west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (129 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

Tropical Storm Fengshen strengthened slowly on Wednesday, although the thunderstorm activity fluctuated during the day.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation on Wednesday night.  Those thunderstorms were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The strongest rainbands were in the southern and eastern parts of Fengshen.  Bands in the northern wand western parts of the circulations consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Fengshen may have pulled drier air into the tropical storm.  The drier air may have mixed into rainbands in the northern and western parts of Fengshen and caused the thunderstorms in those parts of the tropical storm to weaken.  Tropical Storm Fengshen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge centered south of Japan.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear and drier air will slow the rate of intensification.  Tropical Storm Fengshen could strengthen into a typhoon within 24 hours.

The ridge south of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Fengshen toward the west for another 12 to 24 hours.  Fengshen will start to move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fengshen could reach Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan in about 12 hours.  Fengshen could be a typhoon at that time.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi moved slowly toward northern Luzon.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 127.2°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east-southeast of Baler, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi formed east of Luzon on Tuesday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 128.8°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) east of Legaspi, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The Japan Meteorological Agency determined that former Tropical Depression 27W strengthened into Tropical Storm Kalmaegi on Tuesday night.  The circulation Kalmaegi was not well organized.  There was a large, broad area of low pressure, but there were few thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern part of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi.  Bands in the other portions of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification.  Kalmaegi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper layer of the Western North Pacific Ocean to support intensification.  However, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi will move around the southwestern part of an upper level ridge centered south of Japan on Wednesday.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow across the eastern part of the tropical storm.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.  In 12 to 24 hours Kalmaegi will move closer to the western end of the ridge and the upper level winds will blow from the south.  The wind shear could decrease when the wind direction changes, which may allow the tropical storm to strengthen.

The ridge south of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Kalmaegi toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kalmaegi could approach northeastern Luzon in 48 to 72 hours.  Since the strongest thunderstorms are in the northwestern part of Kalmaegi, the tropical storm could drop locally heavy rain over Luzon even if the center does not make landfall.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Fengshen continued to organize east of the Northern Marianas.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 155.3°E which put it about 690 miles (1115 km) east-northeast of Saipan.  Fengshen was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Fengshen Forms East of Northern Marianas

Tropical Storm Fengshen formed east of the Northern Marianas on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 157.1°E which put it about 805 miles (1300 km) east of Saipan.  Fengshen was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a cluster of thunderstorms east of the Northern Marianas on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Society designated the system as Tropical Storm Fengshen.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Fengshen was asymmetrical.  Stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Fengshen was moving south of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Fenshen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Fengshen will intensify gradually and it could strengthen into a typhoon during the next two to three days.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move around the western end of the ridge over the Western North Pacific.  The ridge will steer Fengshen toward the west-northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Tropical Storm Fengshen will move more toward the north in about 36 hours when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Fengshen will pass northeast of the Northern Marianas.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 27W developed east of Luzon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression 27W was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 130.9°E which put it about 315 miles (510 km) east of Laoang, Philippines.  The depression was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.