Monthly Archives: October 2024

Hurricane Kristy Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Kristy intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 121.6°W which put the center about 970 miles (1565 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

Hurricane Kristy looked like a Category 5 hurricane on visible satellite images on Thursday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Kristy’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kristy.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Kristy was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 8.2.  Hurricane Kristy is smaller than Hurricane Milton was when Milton was over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move toward the southern end of an upper level trough between Hawaii and California.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will start to affect Hurricane Kristy on Friday.  Those upper level winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Kristy will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kristy toward the northwest during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to remain far from any land mass.

Tropical Cyclone Dana Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Dana strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the northern Bay of Bengal on Wednesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dana was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 87.5°E which put the center about 245 miles (395 km) south of Kolkata, India.  Dana was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dana strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the northern Bay of Bengal on Wednesday night.  More thunderstorms formed close to the center of Dana’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dana.  Storms near the center of Dana’s circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Dana was more symmetrical on Thursday morning.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Dana’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dana.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Dana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.   Tropical Cyclone Dana will intensify during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Dana toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dana will reach the coast of India southwest of Kolkata in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Odisha and West Bengal.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Dana will also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Odisha and West Bengal.

Tropical Storm Trami Brings Wind and Rain to Luzon

Tropical Storm Trami brought wind and rain to Luzon on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Trami was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 121.8°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) southeast of Tuguegarao, Philippines.  Trami was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Trami brought wind and rain to Luzon on Wednesday.  Bands in the western side of Trami’s circulation dropped heavy rain on parts of Luzon.  There were reports of flooding in some places.

Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Trami.  Bands in the eastern side of Trami’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Trami generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Trami was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Trami’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Trami will move around the south side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Trami toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Trami will move across northern Luzon during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Trami will continue to bring wind and rain to northern Luzon during the next 24 hours.  Heavy rain is likely to cause additional flooding.

Tropical Storm Trami will weaken a little as it moves across northern Luzon.  Trami will move over the South China Sea on Thursday.  Tropical Storm Trami is likely to strengthen again when it moves over the South China Sea.

Kristy Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane South of Baja California

Hurricane Kristy rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 113.9°W which put the center about 650 miles (1045 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Kristy continued to intensify rapidly on Wednesday morning.  A small circular eye was at the center of Kristy’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kristy.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Kristy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kristy could continue to intensify rapidly. Hurricane Kristy could to strengthen to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will continue to steer Kristy toward the west during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to move farther away from Mexico.

Tropical Cyclone Dana Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Dana formed over the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Dana was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 88.8°E which put the center about 370 miles (595 km) south of Kolkata, India.  Dana was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal strengthened on Wednesday morning and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Dana.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dana exhibited more organization on Wednesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center of Dana’s circulation.  Bands of thunderstorms were occurring in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Dana.  Bands in the eastern sides of Dana’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that extends from Southeast Asia to over the northern Bay of Bengal.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dana’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dana will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Dana toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dana will move toward the coast of India.  Dana is likely to approach the coast southwest of Kolkata in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Odisha and West Bengal.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Dana will also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Odisha and West Bengal.

Kristy Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Kristy rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 108.5°W which put the center about 550 miles (890 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Kristy rapidly intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Kristy’s circulation.  A circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Kristy.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Kristy generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy became more symmetrical on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Kristy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kristy could continue to intensify rapidly.  Hurricane Kristy is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane on Wednesday.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will continue to steer Kristy toward the west during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to move farther away from Mexico.

Tropical Storm Trami Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Trami formed east of the Philippines on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Trami was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 127.0°E which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) east of Virac, Philippines.  Trami was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Monday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Trami.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Trami was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Trami’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Trami consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Trami’s circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Trami was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Trami’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Trami will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trami will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Trami’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Trami will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Trami will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Trami toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Trami will approach northern Luzon in 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Trami will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Luzon.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Kristy Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Kristy formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 102.0°W which put the center about 275 miles (440 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Monday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kristy.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Kristy.  Storms near the center of Kristy began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Kristy was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern side of Kristy’s circulation.  The winds in the southern part of Tropical Storm Kristy were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Kristy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kristy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kristy is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by the middle of this week.

Tropical Storm Kristy will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kristy toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kristy will move away from the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Oscar Meanders Over Eastern Cuba

Tropical Storm Oscar meandered over eastern Cuba on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 76.1°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) northwest of Guantanamo, Cuba.  Oscar was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of Holguin and the North Coast of Cuban province of Guantanamo to Punta Maisi.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the South Coast of Cuban province of Guantanamo and the North Coast of Cuban province of Las Tunas.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas.

Former Hurricane Oscar weakened steadily as it meandered over eastern Cuba on Monday.  Many of the thunderstorms in Oscar’s circulation dissipated.  Bands of showers and low clouds were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Oscar.  The strongest winds were occurring in bands over water north of Cuba.  The winds on land were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Storm Oscar was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern side of Oscar’s circulation.  Those winds were occurring in the part of the circulation that was over water.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Oscar were blowing at less than tropical storm force.  Much of the western part of Oscar’s circulation was over eastern Cuba.

Tropical Storm Oscar will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, it will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over Florida.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Oscar’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Oscar could get a little stronger on Tuesday.

The upper level trough over Florida will steer Tropical Storm Oscar toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Oscar will move over the Central Bahamas on Tuesday.  Tropical Storm Oscar will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Central Bahamas.

Hurricane Oscar Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern Cuba

Hurricane Oscar brought wind and rain to eastern Cuba on Sunday night.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Oscar was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 74.5°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) east of Guantanamo, Cuba.  Oscar was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of Holguin and the North Coast of Cuban province of Guantanamo to Punta Maisi.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of Las Tunas.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the South Coast of Cuban province of Guantanamo and the North Coast of Cuban province of Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of Camaguey.  A Tropical Storm Watch is also in effect for the Central Bahamas.

The center of Hurricane Oscar made landfall on the coast of eastern Cuba east of Guantanamo on Sunday evening.  A very small eye with a diameter of 4 miles (6 km) was at the center of Oscar’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Oscar.

The circulation around Hurricane Oscar was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) on the northern side of Oscar’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Oscar.

Hurricane Oscar will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Oscar toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Oscar will move across eastern Cuba on Sunday night and on Monday.

Hurricane Oscar will weaken to a tropical storm as it moves inland over eastern Cuba.  Even though Oscar will weaken, it will still bring strong winds and heavy rain to eastern Cuba.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.